Branch/St. Joseph employment held steady through pandemic

The economy is coming back in southwest Michigan and the state, according to Mike Horrigan, president of Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, but there are barriers to filling jobs.

In a presentation to the board for Michigan Works Southwest, which services Branch, Calhoun, Kalamazoo and St. Joseph counties, Horrigan said, in terms of some industries that have done well, they are getting close to pre-pandemic levels.

"Construction is right up there along with retail trades," Horrigan said. "In terms of just the dynamics of the labor market, if you take a look at job openings, and you take a look at the number of unemployed people, the numbers are two unemployed people for each job opening."

That is not the case for the four local counties. Only Kalamazoo and Calhoun still are below pre-pandemic employment rates by a few percentage points.

Horrigan's assessment using the number of employed divided by the county population. That is a more accurate way to determine employment, because it accounts for those who left the labor force, he said.

For Branch and St. Joseph counties employment levels held steady over the past two years.

In February 2020,Branch County employment rate was 55.6%. It was 55.4% at its lowest and in September was 55.5%

For St. Joseph County, the numbers were 59.1% at the start of the pandemic. It was only 58.2% at its worst and remains at 58.2%.

Horrigan said from the start of COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020, there was a deep recession, with employment crashing 24% by April 2020.

Since then, there has been a strong comeback. Since late 2020, job openings have greatly exceeded new hires.

At the end of 2020, the number of job openings advertised at the end of each month skyrocketed, relative to the number of hires during each month.

“So, this growing gap between jobs that are posted, and the actual hiring by employers are showing there's an issue in terms of employers being able to find and hire workers,” Horrigan said..

Horrigan said many people have left the labor force, so they are not counted in the unemployed figures.

"People who are out of the labor force, they want a job, but they can't look or take a job," he said.

There are three main barriers to their employment, Horrigan said: Child care, family responsibilities or transportation issues.

Horrigan said another issue is adding to the mix.

“If it's a hot labor market, offers in wages are going up. Then you also get workers who may be quitting and job shopping to find a better job.”

The number of job quits went to up to 4.3 million in August, almost a record, he said.

Horrigan said there are wage contracts that are automatically increased because of inflation triggered by cost-of-living adjustments, or COLA.

Those on Social Security will see a COLA increase of 5.9% on 2022 checks, the highest since 1982.

“Think of that as a contract that basically enforces an increase in price," Horrigan said. "It is a contract source of inflation.”

This article originally appeared on The Daily Reporter: Branch/St. Joseph employment held steady through pandemic