Will Brandon Hagel’s breakout season bring a long-term extension soon?

DENVER — The Lightning have received everything they hoped for, and maybe more, from Brandon Hagel since they acquired him at last season’s trade deadline.

They gave up a lot, including two first-round picks that have depleted their inventory of trade assets as this year’s deadline approaches (March 3).

In return, the 24-year-old Hagel has emerged as one of the Lightning’s top all-around players. His 22 goals this season are third on the team; his 46 points rank fourth. His plus-16 goal differential is the best on the team, an indication of his two-way game and dedication to defense, puck possession and forechecking.

Other than Hagel, there’s only one other current player 24 or younger, Stars sensation Jason Robertson, who has at least 22 goals and a plus-16 goal differential. Hagel is in elite company, and he’s a young talent the Lightning would certainly love to lock up.

Hagel had shown that he can complement skilled offensive players, spending most of the season fitting in superbly with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. And he can also slot in with Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn, as he’s done often recently, to form a lockdown line that can match up with any opponent’s top line.

The Lightning have done a good job of retaining their young core players, last offseason handing eight-year extensions to Cirelli and defensemen Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak.

So when can we expect the Lightning to ensure that Hagel will be a part of their long-term future?

Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois, asked about the potential of extending Hagel during his midseason media availability, said, “we’ll deal with that in due time,” citing that the priority going into the trade deadline is upgrading the current roster for a return trip to the Stanley Cup final.

“Right now, we’re focused on this season,” BriseBois said. “Let’s make sure we don’t leave anything on the table this year. Let’s make sure we make the most of this opportunity and have no regrets when it’s all said and done.”

Performing the salary cap gymnastics to keep the Lightning’s roster intact becomes difficult every season, especially as the cap continues to increase incrementally by $1 million each year. The Lightning had to unload a key figure in defenseman Ryan McDonagh in order to extend Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak, and those extensions kick in next season, as does rookie defenseman Nick Perbix’s club-friendly two-year extension.

The reason Hagel came at such a heavy price last trade deadline is that he had four seasons of club control and was signed to a club-friendly $1.5 million cap hit through 2023-24. After that season, Hagel becomes a restricted free agent with arbitration rights from having four years of professional experience (but he still won’t become an unrestricted free agent until after the 2025-26 season).

“That gives us time to work with him and find solutions to be able to keep him long term,” BriseBois said.

In the Steve Yzerman/Julien BriseBois era, the Lightning have never gone to a hearing with any of the eight players who filed for arbitration, according to CapFriendly. They most recently settled with Ross Colton after filings on a two-year deal that expires at the end of this season.

BriseBois could open extension talks with Hagel this upcoming offseason to avoid that process, especially since Hagel is on pace for a breakout 35-goal, 72-point season.

Two major things will happen at the end of the 2023-24 season that will greatly affect the Lightning’s cap situation. It will be the last season in which the Lightning will get $6.875 million of long-term injury help against the cap from retired defenseman Brent Seabrook’s contract, which was acquired from Chicago in the Tyler Johnson trade two offseasons ago. Acquiring Seabrook’s dead contract has been a godsend in helping the Lightning remain under the cap.

Also, captain Steven Stamkos’ eight-year, $68 million contract, which carries an annual $8.5 million cap hit, will expire at the end of the 2023-24 season. Then, if not before, the Lightning will have to figure out their future with the longtime face of the franchise as he approaches his age 35 season.

Given those situations, the 2024 offseason may still not be the right time for the Lightning to give Hagel a long-term contract, especially given the uncertainty of how much the cap will increase in coming years.

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