Brandon Staley’s aggression breaks the mold, and the Chiefs

This is a new NFL.

These also might be new Chargers.

One of the bigger matchups on the Sunday slate came from the AFC West, where a pair of young passers squared off as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs hosted Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers.

The game largely lived up to the hype, coming down to the final play. The Chargers built a 14-point lead in the first half, thanks to a pair of fumbles by the Chiefs. First Tyreek Hill put the ball on the turf, and after recovering the football Los Angeles responded with a touchdown on their ensuing possession. Then Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who had a critical lost fumble a week ago, again coughed up the football. Herbert found Austin Ekeler for the touchdown, and the Chargers were up 14.

But as one knows, you can never count out Mahomes and the explosive Kansas City offense. The Chiefs reached the end zone on their first three possession of the second half, taking a 24-21 lead midway through the fourth quarter. The touchdown came on a fly sweep from Mecole Hardman:

Again, a little reminder of just how many weapons Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy have at their disposal, and perhaps a reason for what transpired after that score.

Herbert and the Chargers responded on the ensuing possession, driving all the way down to the Kansas City 1-yard line where they faced a first and goal. The Chiefs defense, however, stiffened and the visitors settled for a field goal to knot the game at 24. Then, the Los Angeles defense intercepted Mahomes for the second time of the afternoon:

That set up this situation. The Chargers had the football at their own 41-yard line, with 1:42 remaining in the game. Both teams enjoyed their full compliment of time outs. How would new head coach Brandon Staley and the Chargers play this scenario? Would they be aggressive and look to score quickly, yet handing Mahomes the football back with time to pull out a win? Would they be conservative?

They were aggressive. Almost, according to some, overly so. The Chargers drove down to the Chiefs’ 30-yard line and faced a 4th and 4 situation with under a minute to go. Would they bring out the kicker to try and take the lead?

According to 4th Down Decision Bot, a Twitter account built by Ben Baldwin of The Athletic which analyzes fourth-down decisions in real time, Staley needed to bring out the kicker:

As you can see, the field goal attempt gave the Chargers a win percentage of 61%, while the decision to go for the first down gave Los Angeles a win percentage of just 58%.

Staley sent Herbert back onto the field.

Unfortunately, rookie tackle Rashawn Slater jumped offsides.

Now, another decision. 4th and 9 at the Kansas City 35-yard line. The bot weighed in:

A very strong recommendation to kick the field goal, and as you can see going for it dropped the Chargers’ win percentage below 50%.

Staley sent the offense back onto the field.

Herbert’s pass fell incomplete, but there was a flag. Pass interference on the Chiefs.

That gave the Chargers a fresh set of downs at the Kansas City 20-yard line. The Chiefs were down to their final timeout. Now would Staley take his foot off the gas and settle for the field goal attempt at the whistle? Surely he would, right?

Staley kept the football in Herbert’s hands, and his faith was rewarded:

Faith, rewarded.

Now, this might be indicative of life in the modern NFL, against quarterbacks and offenses like Kansas City’s. You win the game with your QB on the field, and with the way the game is stacked in favor of offenses, from the rules on illegal contact and pass interference, that gives you the best chance to win. This might, as many things do, have its roots back to Bill Belichick. After all, who can forget his decision years ago to keep his offense on the field for a fourth down against Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts?

Kevin Clark of The Ringer surely does not, and his piece from a few years ago illustrated how Belichick’s decision started the conversation about teams being more aggressive on fourth down.

Now, we might be smart to discuss the idea of process versus results. As we can see, the numbers indicate that the wiser course of action would have been to, at some point, kick the field goal. Whether initially, or after the penalty, or even armed with the fresh set of downs.

But at some level, you wonder if Staley’s faith in his offense, and his aggressive decisions, pays off down the road. We just saw a week ago the Baltimore Ravens do something similar, keeping their offense on the field to try and ice the game against Mahomes:

And we also saw the aftermath, in a jubilant Ravens locker room:

Odds are we see a similar video put out by the Chargers media in the next few hours.

But as Staley told the media after the game, “we wanted to put the ball in our offenses hands.” They did just that, and came away with a victory.

Perhaps advancing that fourth-down conversation a little bit more.