Brazil Older Than Ever in Rising Threat to Limping Economy

Giovanna Serafim and Andrew Rosati
·2 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s population is aging at its fastest clip ever, potentially draining momentum from Latin America’s largest economy after a decade of lackluster growth.

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The portion of Brazilians that are 65 or older climbed to 10.9% in 2022 from 7.4% in 2010, according to data from Brazil’s statistics agency, or IBGE, released Friday. The share of seniors is now the largest its been since 1940, the oldest comparable census data.

“We are aging very quickly compared to developed nations,” Izabel Marri, a demographer at the IBGE, said in an interview. “It took France and England 200 years to do what Brazil did in 40 or 60.”

The speed at which Brazil is graying is raising concerns about how the South American nation will cope with the added societal costs of caring for its seniors. As it nears losing its demographic advantage — when active workers outnumber retirees — economists and demographers are quick to point out that many people lack savings and the government is missing policies to fund their pensions and health care costs.

“The state is ultimately going to have to provide for those that are aging,” Marri said.

Brazil began a period of explosive growth after the turn of the century. China gobbled up natural resources, like beef and iron ore, and the revenues from exports helped fund welfare programs that lifted millions of Brazilians into the ranks of the middle class. But the commodities boom went bust in the 2010s and the economy expanded less than 1% annually on average during that decade.

Social indicators, such as education and life expectancy improved, but Marcelo Neri, an economist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, or FGV, in Rio de Janeiro, says the gains didn’t translate into a more productive workforce. “We had social progress, but we didn’t have economic responsibility,” he said.

At the same time, the growth rate of Brazilian population, which numbers some 203 million people, has been quickly fading. In 2022, it fell to 6.5%, the slowest pace on record, from 12.3% in 2010.

Brazil currently dedicates about 13% of its gross domestic product to to social security, compared to the 10% spent by Japan, the world’s oldest nation, according to the FGV.

(Updates with charts, analysis and context on Brazil’s growth throughout.)

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