Breaking down Baker Mayfield’s odds-defying, record-setting day
Baker Mayfield’s streak of 22 straight completions to finish the Week 7 win over the Cincinnati Bengals set a Cleveland Browns franchise record for most consecutive completions. The odds against Mayfield pulling off such a feat were astronomical.
It wasn’t one in a million, but in football probability, it sure seems close. According to NFL NextGen Stats, the odds against Mayfield completing the 22 straight passes were 19,062 to 1. That would be an amazing payout if a sportsbook laid out those kinds of odds.
NextGen broke down the completion probability of all 22 passes.
Even crazier, his final completion — the game-winning touchdown strike to Donovan Peoples-Jones — was the most difficult throw Mayfield completed all game. The graphic from NextGen Stats does a great job illustrating just how small the margin for error was on the spectacular throw and catch.
Mayfield’s game-winning TD pass to Donovan Peoples-Jones was his most improbable completion of the game.
➤ Air Distance: 42.5 yards
➤ Sideline Distance: 0.5 yardsCompletion Probability: 21.7%#CLEvsCIN | #Browns pic.twitter.com/UpZfIRe7Sr
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 25, 2020
Remember, Mayfield started the game 0-for-5 with a bad interception on his first throw. That doesn’t get factored into the odds mathematically, but it makes the odds-defying finish look even greater in perspective.
