Breaking down the good and bad of Kansas State’s matchup against FAU in Elite Eight
Here we go again.
Kansas State basketball fans everywhere shared that thought when No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic upset No. 4 seed Tennessee on Thursday at Madison Square Garden.
The Wildcats have advanced to the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament for the third time since 2010, and for the third straight trip a Cinderella opponent from a mid-major conference is standing in their way of the Final Four. K-State was unable to win its last two games in the Elite Eight, falling to Butler in 2010 and Loyola-Chicago in 2018.
Will it be a case of deja vu when K-State faces off against FAU at 5:09 p.m. (Central) on Saturday in the East Regional final? Or will the Wildcats reach the Final Four for the first time since 1964 under the guidance of first-year coach Jerome Tang?
Here’s a breakdown of the game and first look at the matchup:
What Florida Atlantic does best
The Wildcats were not the betting favorites against Kentucky and they weren’t heavily favored against Michigan State. Another toss-up game is expected against the Owls.
K-State was favored by two points as of Friday afternoon. College basketball statistician Bart Torvik projects the Wildcats as a narrow victor and gives them a 51% chance of advancing to the Final Four.
Most casual fans may not know much about Florida Atlantic but the Owls are on par with both Kentucky and Michigan State. Nobody wins 34 games by accident. They just happen to play in Conference USA instead of a power league.
Much like Butler and Loyola-Chicago before them, they will pose many challenges for K-State.
Three things to keep an eye on:
1. Florida Atlantic comes at you in waves. The Owls are blessed with a deep roster and coach Dusty May isn’t afraid to use more than 10 players in games. Nine different FAU players average at least 16 minutes per game, but none of them average 30 minutes of playing time. That is very unusual. They shouldn’t be tired after playing a game on Thursday.
2. The Owls are a balanced team. If you had to describe Florida Atlantic in one word, you could do a lot worse than “versatile.” It can beat teams in myriad ways. It has a top 40 offense and a top 40 defense. It can make shots from three-point range and also defend the three-point line. It’s the same story from two-point range. There is no obvious way to attack this team.
3. Good luck scoring from close range against FAU. The Owls are stingy everywhere on defense, but they are nearly impossible to score against from two-point range. They are only allowing teams to make 44.8% of their shots at the rim this season, a number that ranks 11th nationally. That’s a big reason why teams are scoring just 63.3 points against them in the NCAA Tournament. Vladislav Goldin uses his 7-foot-1 frame to his advantage as a rim protector.
Where Florida Atlantic struggles
Here are three things the Wildcats could take advantage of against the Owls.
1. Florida Atlantic doesn’t create turnovers. It forces turnovers on 17.1% of its defensive possessions, a number that ranks 179th nationally. That is music to the ears of K-State coach Jerome Tang. The Wildcats have played back-to-back games against teams that don’t force many turnovers on defense and they have responded by giving the ball away a grand total of 13 times in wins over Kentucky and Michigan State. No statistic defines the Wildcats more than turnovers.
2. The Owls don’t get much done at the free-throw line. They only make 71.5% of their shots from the charity stripe and they don’t draw many fouls on offense. Florida Atlantic’s free-throw rate ranks 192nd nationally.
3. FAU only has one rim protector. Outside of Goldin, the Owls aren’t difficult to shoot over in the paint. Florida Atlantic ranks 292nd nationally in blocked shots.
Player to watch
Johnell Davis is the engine that makes Florida Atlantic go.
The 6-foot-4 sophomore guard from Gary, Indiana, is averaging 13.9 points and 5.4 rebounds this season. But when he is on, he is very hard to stop. He erupted for 29 points in a Round of 32 victory over Fairleigh Dickinson and also had 36 in a game earlier this year against Alabama-Birmingham.
He makes 38.4% of his three-pointers, 54.5% of his two-pointers and 86.3% of his free throws.
Stat to know
Six different FAU basketball players shoot better than 34% from three-point range.
The Owls will put the Wildcats’ elite three-point defense to the test in this game. Brandon Weatherspoon is the team’s best shooter from beyond the arc at 39.8%, but many of his teammates can drain shots from distance.
As a team, Florida Atlantic has made 36.5% of its three-pointers this season.
Bottom Line
Forget the name on the front of the jersey. This may be the toughest game yet for K-State in this NCAA Tournament.
Florida Atlantic has been crushing teams all season and it stayed poised in the Sweet 16 even as it fell behind early in the second half against Tennessee. The Owls rallied for a 62-55 win with 15 points from Davis and 12 points from Nicholas Boyd.
Still, this is a good matchup for the Wildcats because it will be hard for Owls to turn them over. If Markquis Nowell is at, or near, 100% health on Saturday the Wildcats will deserve to be favorites in the Elite Eight.
