Breaking down the NL playoff race, including all Miami Marlins tiebreaker scenarios

The National League’s playoff race is coming down to the wire.

While two division champions have already been decided and the third is all but settled, six teams — including the Miami Marlins — remain in contention for the NL’s three wild card spots.

With two weeks left in the regular season to settle those three spots, here’s a look at where everything stands with the field, including a dive into how the Marlins would fare should tiebreakers ultimately become a factor in determining seeding.

Where the playoff race currently stands

The Braves (96-53) have already clinched the National League East for a sixth consecutive season. The Dodgers (91-57) have also won their 10th NL West crown in 11 seasons. The NL Central is technically still up for grabs, but the Brewers (84-65) should win there barring a collapse.

Now for the interesting part.

Six teams are still in contention for three wild card spots. Entering Monday, the Phillies (81-68) have the top spot. The Diamondbacks (79-72) are three games behind Philadelphia in the second wild card spot. And a half game behind Arizona are both the Cubs and Marlins (both 78-72). The Reds (78-73) and Giants (76-74) still within striking distance.

What are the remaining schedules for the wild-card contenders?

▪ Phillies: Three at Braves, four vs. Mets, three vs Pirates, three at New York Mets.

▪ Diamondbacks: Two vs Giants, three at Yankees, three at White Sox, three vs Astros.

▪ Marlins: Three vs. Mets, three vs. Brewers, three at Mets, three at Pirates.

▪ Cubs: Three vs. Pirates, three vs. Rockies, three at Braves, three at Brewers.

▪ Reds: Three vs. Twins, three vs. Pirates, two at Guardians, three at Cardinals.

▪ Giants: Two at Diamondbacks, four at Dodgers, three vs. Padres, three vs. Dodgers.

What are the tiebreaker scenarios and with which teams do the Marlins have the advantage?

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. The Marlins own the tiebreaker here with the Phillies (7-6), Cubs (4-2) and Diamondbacks (4-2). Miami tied its season series with both the Reds and Giants (3-3 against both).

The second tiebreaker, which applies for the Marlins only with the Reds and Giants, is intradivision record — a team’s record against division opponents.

The Marlins are 24-22 (.522 win percentage) against the NL East with six division games left.

The Reds are 19-27 (.413) against the NL Central with six division games left.

The Giants are 23-17 (.575) against the NL West with 12 division games left.

So, as of right now, the Marlins would also own the tiebreaker against the Reds but not the Giants, but this tiebreaker will fluctuate until all division games are played.

What about if three or more teams are tied?

This is where things can get complicated.

The first tiebreaker would be each team’s record against the other teams that are tied. If one team has a better win percentage than the other two, that team gets the tie breaker. If two teams have identical records that are better than the third team, then the next step is to go back to the two-team tiebreakers to determine the winner.

If all three have identical records against each other, then the tiebreaker follows the same order as the two-team tiebreaker — intradivision record, then interdivision record (record against all NL teams outside the division), then record in last half of intraleague games.

So let’s break them all down. Since six- and five-team tiebreakers seems highly unlikely, the focus here will be on all permutations of four- and three-team tiebreakers that could involve the Marlins.

Spoiler alert: Almost every tiebreaker favors the Marlins.

Four-team tiebreakers

▪ If Miami, San Francisco, Arizona and Chicago are tied: The Marlins win this tiebreaker. Miami’s .611 win percentage against the other three teams is the highest of the group, followed by Arizona (.542), San Francisco (.435) and then Chicago (.421).

▪ If Miami, San Francisco, Chicago and Cincinnati are tied: The Marlins win this tiebreaker with a .556 win percentage, followed by Chicago (.520), Cincinnati (.500) and San Francisco (.421).

▪ If Miami, Chicago, Arizona and Cincinnati are tied: Miami wins this tiebreaker with a .611 win percentage, followed by Arizona (.550), Cincinnati (.538) and Chicago (.346).

▪ If Miami, San Francisco, Arizona and Cincinnati are tied: Entering Monday, the Marlins would win this tiebreaker. Miami’s .555 win percentage against the other three teams leads the group followed by San Francisco (.542), Cincinnati (.500) and then Arizona (.440). However, San Francisco and Arizona have two more games against each other. A Giants sweep would push San Francisco over Miami.

Three-team tiebreakers

▪ If Miami, Chicago and Arizona are tied: The Marlins win the tiebreaker with a .667 win percentage, followed by Arizona (.615) and Chicago (.231).

▪ If Miami, Chicago and Cincinnati are tied: Miami wins the tiebreaker with a .583 win percentage, followed by Cincinnati (.526) and Chicago (.421)

▪ If Miami, Arizona and Cincinnati are tied: The Marlins and Reds have identical 7-6 records, while Arizona is 5-8. However, Miami has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Cincinnati, so the Marlins win.

▪ If Miami, Chicago and San Francisco are tied: The Marlins and Cubs have identical 7-5 records, while San Francisco is 4-8. However, Miami has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Chicago, so the Marlins win.

▪ If Miami, San Francisco and Arizona are tied: Entering Monday, the Marlins win the tiebreaker with a .538 win percentage, followed by San Francisco (.529) and then Arizona (.412). However, the Giants would overtake the Marlins if they sweep the Diamondbacks in their upcoming two-game series.

▪ If Miami, San Francisco and Cincinnati are tied: San Francisco wins this tiebreaker with a .538 win percentage, followed by Miami (.500) and Cincinnati (.462).