Can Brexit ever really be said to be 'done'?
On Saturday May 1, 1,494 days since Britain triggered the Article 50 process to leave the EU in March 2017, the UK-EU free trade agreement will enter fully into force.
The European Parliament voted by a huge majority in favour of the deal on Wednesday. The Council of the EU took the last procedural step before formal ratification on Thursday.
Britain and the EU will soon exchange letters to enable the trade deal to come into force and replace the provisional application of the agreement that began at the start of the year.
After more than four years of butting heads over Brexit, both sides are understandably anxious to look to the future.
That future holds negotiations, talks, meetings and yet more negotiations between Brussels and London.
Tough talks continue over the politically difficult implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which claimed a high-profile victim in Arlene Foster this week.
Those discussions promise to be turbulent with the EU already bringing legal action for treaty violation against the UK for unilaterally extended grace periods on some customs checks on GB-NI trade.
Ursula von der Leyen told MEPs before the vote that the trade deal had “real teeth” and would give Brussels leverage over the UK.
If the UK failed to implement the two Brexit agreements fully, or broke level playing field commitments, the EU could hit the UK with trade tariffs, she said.
Lord Frost told peers on Thursday that Brussels should tone down the rhetoric. His opposite number Maros Sefcovic said he would be in touch with the former Brexit negotiator to set up the EU-UK partnership council, which will be the first port of call in any dispute.
The council and its specialised committees will aim to manage a relationship that has endured a turbulent 100 days or so since the UK left the transition period on Dec 31.
There are likely to be plenty of teething problems.
Brussels has already asked Britain to be “pragmatic” over the granting of fishing licences for small French boats in the Channel.
Paris has threatened to block any EU decision granting UK financial services firms to the EU market if Britain doesn’t play ball.
But the commission is in no hurry to grant “equivalence” to the City. It may deign to begin considering the request in the middle of the year but the City may have moved onto new markets by then.
There is also the EU’s demand for UK-manufactured AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccines, foreign policy cooperation against Russia, the climate conference in Glasgow and the belated recognition of the EU’s ambassador in London’s diplomatic status to navigate.
On Wednesday, João Vale de Almeida suggested at the Institute for Government that Britain and Brussels were “condemned” to working together, despite Brexit.
“This is a relationship that because of its intensity, because of its depth, because of its complexity will require a lot of meetings, a lot of talking, a lot of exchanges across the Channel,” the ambassador said.
Brexit is very far from over.
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