Brexit options: Extension or just more tension

Boris Johnson’s Brexit extension letters are in, but Brussels is in no hurry to respond.

With Westminster still very much in a political fog, the 27 other nations of the European Union are biding their time before replying to the U.K. government’s (reluctant) request to extend the deadline for Britain’s departure beyond October 31.

If Johnson can get the deal through parliament, along with the necessary domestic legislation, in time for a Halloween exit, then the EU may not need to make a decision at all. But that looks difficult for the prime minister to pull off.

On Monday, it was Commission spokeswoman Mina Andreeva’s turn to sum up Brussels’ attitude. “It is first and foremost for the U.K to explain the next steps,” she said. “We from our side will of course follow all the events in London this week very closely,” Andreeva said during the usual midday press briefing before stressing that “the ratification process has been launched on the EU side.”

The decision on a delay ultimately lies with national leaders of the other 27 European Union nations. European Council President Donald Tusk is consulting those leaders this week to sound them out.

Here’s POLITICO’s guide to their options:

No extension

Pros: Big companies have mostly made preparations for a no-deal Brexit but for small and medium-sized enterprises it would be very hard. Yet some diplomats, including those from Belgium, have often argued that uncertainty also comes with a high cost and that, in many scenarios, saying no to a further extension would at least provide clarity. “The worst of Brexit, for me, is not even no deal. It’s the uncertainty being prolonged,” France’s European affairs minister, Amélie de Montchalin, said Monday.

Cons: Experts have long warned of chaos and potential economic calamity in the event the U.K. crashes out without a deal.

“We would have never the courage for a no-deal,” a diplomat said, summing up a common feeling in Brussels. Brexit is seen as a serious problem mainly by countries near the U.K., which are also those that would pay the highest price for a no-deal. With Germany heading into recession, and the International Monetary Fund warning against the risk of an intensification of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the appetite for a no deal is very low.

Delay of a few weeks

Pros: A short, technical extension could be sold as not materially delaying Brexit while avoiding no deal — but at the same time it might not be sufficient to resolve all of the uncertainty still swirling in London, especially if British politics comes up with any new surprises. A further delay of “a few days or a few weeks” in order to avoid a no-deal Brexit would not be a problem, said German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier on Monday.

A short extension of just a few weeks would be most useful in case the ratification process in the U.K needs a bit more time for technical rather than political reasons. EU diplomats say that an extension granted only for technical reasons could be agreed without the need to summon EU leaders to Brussels for another summit.

Cons: The key question is whether a short extension would really be long enough to accomplish anything, or if EU27 leaders will have to come back and extend their extension once again? This is the nightmare scenario envisioned by leaders who are eager to move on to other things, and who believe the EU has already wasted enough time and resources on Brexit.

Jan. 31

Pros: A delay until the end of January is probably the easiest option. This is the date specified by the Benn Act (the legislation that has compelled Johnson’s government to put in the extension request), so EU leaders can say they are simply complying with an ask from the British parliament.

It’s also the surest way to prove that the EU is not interfering in the U.K.’s internal political debates. “The EU will first and foremost want to isolate itself from the … process and avoid coming in on one of the sides in the debate,” an EU diplomat said. “So I assume we’ll respond in kind to what is asked.”

Cons: After all the tumult of Brexit, giving the Brits what they want could be seen as a dangerous and undesirable precedent.

A January 31 deadline could also prove not long enough — especially if a U.K. national election or a second referendum is needed. A major NATO leaders’ summit is scheduled to take place in London in early December, limiting the time for an election before the Christmas holiday. And even if Britain can squeeze in an election, the new government would only have a few weeks in office and may not be ready to provide further clarity to Brussels. It would not be possible to hold a referendum by the January date.

Dec. 31, 2020

Pros: Pushing the new Brexit deadline all the way to the end of the transition period envisioned in the Withdrawal Agreement could be a winning compromise between the Brexit hawks and doves, some diplomats say.

The EU27 would essentially be saying that they are setting aside Brexit until London makes a decision — and that it is up to the U.K. to use the time either as a transition period or merely to reach a decision on the divorce decree.

Cons: At the April EU summit, French President Emmanuel Macron pushed for a short extension and it seems unlikely he would agree to such a long one now. Also, this scenario could keep everyone in limbo and still leave a risk that the U.K. crashes out without a deal if, say, an even harder-line Tory government takes office. Also, the EU needs to negotiate its next long-term budget, and having certainty sooner would help those negotiations.

As with all the other options, “everything depends on the developments in the U.K and the reason for the extension,” one diplomat argued. “If it’s for the completion of the ratification process, then it makes sense. But if there are further complications [elections, referendum etc], we’ll have to discuss,” the diplomat said.

Flextension with end date

Pros: This would involve setting a fixed date, at any point up to December 31, 2020, but allowing the U.K. to leave whenever it is ready.

Some call this the “have your cake and eat it” solution, yet it could provide the best of all worlds. Some diplomats are skeptical because they see it mainly as a British idea. “They are flying a kite,” as one diplomat put it.

Other EU officials take a different view and point out the current October 31 deadline is already a kind of “flextension.” EU leaders wrote when it was agreed that “if the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified by both parties before this date, the withdrawal will take place on the first day of the following month.”

Cons: The uncertainty would continue and the U.K. would retain near total control of events.