Breyer's replacement could hinge on Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Don't progressives get that?

With the retirement of Justice Stephen Breyer, the Democrats’ 50-50 control of the U.S. Senate has never been more precarious.

Many on the left urged Breyer to step down now so the 83-year-old’s successor could take his place as a key liberal vote. The names of potential nominees have circulated for months and various strategies are likely mapped out.

But if a single Democratic senator votes against President Biden’s Supreme Court nominee, progressive hopes for the future could be dashed. When it comes to the future of SCOTUS, every vote counts – literally.

Meanwhile, progressive activists could not care less.

It's a full-on political assault against Sinema

When stalking Sen. Kyrsten Sinema at weddings and chasing her into bathrooms didn’t change her policy preferences, her further-left opponents have launched a full-on political assault.

Voto Latino, “a grassroots political organization focused on educating and empowering a new generation of Latinx voters,” announced that it will invest six figures to oust Sinema during the 2024 primary.

“Sinema’s actions directly undermine and suppress the right and wellbeing of Latinos that elected her into office,” Voto Latino said as it kicked off its “Adiós Sinema” campaign.

The Voto Latino effort began at the same time Rep. Ruben Gallego reportedly met with several Sinema donors in New York, fueling speculation he might challenge her from the left.

The congressman has been a steady critic of Arizona’s senior senator. “We won’t shrink from protecting our democracy and the voting rights of all Americans,” Gallego said during the filibuster fight. “It’s past time for the U.S. Senate and Senator Sinema to do the same.”

Could their fight endanger a Breyer replacement?

Sinema has responded politely so far, but one wonders how much more of this she intends to shrug off. Mitch McConnell would love to see her flip to the Republicans, or at least list herself as an independent. He actually understands that the Supreme Court is important.

But in looking to the filibuster fight only, progressives have forgotten that the Senate hangs in the balance.

Breyer’s retirement has been expected for months, so activists shouldn’t be surprised to face a looming Supreme Court slugfest. Yet they have allowed their frustration with Sinema’s independent streak to endanger other Biden priorities in the run-up to the midterms.

Publicly alienating a high-profile Democratic senator, be it Sinema or Manchin, on the eve of a high-court nomination is beyond short-sighted.

If either one of them votes no, the nomination will be scuttled. And as much planning as a SCOTUS pick requires, it would be tough for Biden to choose a replacement before the GOP potentially takes control of the Senate.

An intraparty insurgency might be profitable if you hold solid majorities, but it’s downright suicidal in a 50-50 Senate.

Ask the GOP: Do-or-die infighting hurts

Nevertheless, the activists persisted.

Last weekend, the Arizona Democratic Party voted to censure Sinema. State party chair Raquel Terán said the decision was made “as a result of her failure to do whatever it takes to ensure the health of our democracy.” Perhaps they believe Sinema caucusing with Republicans would be an improvement?

Sen. Mark Kelly wisely pushed back, with his staff asserting he “does not support the censure.” Kelly spokeswoman Sarah Guggenheimer said, “While they came to different decisions on this vote, he looks forward to continuing to work with Senator Sinema on Arizona priorities, as they have done during his first year in the Senate to pass critical infrastructure investments that will create good-paying jobs.”

Finally – long-term thinking. It doesn’t take a genius to glance at the Arizona GOP and admit that do-or-die infighting will end up trashing the party.

Jon Gabriel, a Mesa resident, is editor-in-chief of Ricochet.com and a contributor to The Republic and azcentral.com. Follow him on Twitter at @exjon.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema could have the final say on Breyer's replacement