Brown vs. GOP: How 2024 Ohio Senate race could swing balance of power in Congress | Opinion

The 2023 campaigns are over. Time to focus on 2024.

Just as Ohio was in the national spotlight Nov. 7 because of Issue 1 on abortion, it will be in the national eye next Nov. 5 because of its U.S. Senate race.

Three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, and Republican hopes of reclaiming a Senate majority brightened with West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s announcement last week that he won’t seek reelection. That likely will lead to a Republican senator in that red state.

Brown is running against a recent red tide in statewide elections and will presumably have President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Republican front-runner Donald Trump defeated Biden by 8 percentage points in Ohio in 2020, and at this point would be a solid favorite to carry Ohio again.

Abortion, Trump could impact Ohio Senate race

Brown made clear after the Issue 1 vote, which saw 57% of Ohioans vote to enshrine abortion access in the state constitution, that he will highlight that issue.

A campaign video out soon after the Issue 1 results were known showed the three leading Republican contenders commenting against abortion and declared: "Every Republican candidate (for Senate) supports a national abortion ban … Sherrod Brown trusts Ohioans to make their own health care decisions."

Counting the Aug. 8 special election that would have raised the threshold for Issue 1 from simple majority to 60%, Ohioans have twice within four months expressed support for abortion access with 57% of the vote.

However, the abortion issue didn’t prevent Republican J.D. Vance from winning the 2022 Senate race against pro-choice Rep. Tim Ryan while Republican Gov. Mike DeWine was reelected in a landslide against former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, who emphasized abortion rights.

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Brown could get help from the Republicans themselves. The 2022 GOP primary was bruising, helping Vance overtake early front-runners who were battling each other, and the 2024 nominee will likely get roughed up on the way to the March vote.

Second-term Secretary of State Frank LaRose, a former legislator and Green Beret, has led most polls on the GOP side so far. But the costly Aug. 8 special election he called followed by the Issue 1 victory he pushed against gave him a couple of setbacks heading into 2024.

LaRose will likely struggle to keep up with the ad spending by his two wealthy opponents, state Sen. Matt Dolan of the family that owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, and Bernie Moreno, a former luxury car business owner.

Dolan was gaining ground in the final weeks of the 2022 primary before finishing third. Unlike his opponents, he has kept some distance from Trump, whose endorsement of Vance helped lift the "Hillbilly Elegy" author to victory. Dolan has already run ads linking Brown to Biden.

It’s generally assumed Moreno has the inside track on Trump’s endorsement. His son-in-law is Rep. Max Miller, a former Trump campaign and Trump administration aide. Vance has endorsed Moreno.

But whether Trump’s endorsement will be as valuable in 2024 as it was in the last Senate race could depend on whether he has time to campaign in person in Ohio amid all his court cases. Since Ohio isn’t considered a battleground state anymore for the presidential race, Trump might need to focus limited campaigning time elsewhere.

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Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron tried to lean on Trump’s endorsement in his unsuccessful bid against Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear this month, but Trump didn’t do any late rallying for Cameron in the state.

Brown, meanwhile, at 71 has been voted for by generations of Ohioans since he first was elected to state office (the House) in 1974. His "Dignity of Work" theme has resonated with middle-class Ohioans, who have been willing to put aside his "liberal" label and party affiliation as the state has tilted to conservative Republican.

EXTRA POINTS

Where to next for abortion opponents?

If a Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher had just gotten shelled to go 0-7 on the season, it’s unlikely Manager David Bell would immediately be looking ahead to his next start. He would more likely move the loser into middle relief or to the minors to try to work out his problems. If not cut him.

Yet, after Ohio became the seventh state among seven voting in support of abortion rights since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, some abortion foes vowed to continue fighting Issue 1.

"This isn’t the end," Republican state Senate President Matt Huffman said. "It’s really just the beginning of a revolving door to repeal or replace Issue 1."

The day after the vote, 27 state House members of the "Pro-Life Caucus" issued a statement that they "will do everything in our power to prevent our laws from being removed." A couple days later, several Ohio GOP legislators said they wanted to oppose the newly passed amendment by trying to take away judicial authority for interpreting it.

However, Gov. DeWine said in the aftermath: "We accept election results" and that Ohioans should watch how the constitutional amendment plays out.

He acknowledged that the so-called Heartbeat Law, which he had signed, impacted the Issue 1 vote negatively. The law was eventually blocked by a judge’s order pending appeal, but it cut off abortions at six weeks − when many women aren’t aware they’re pregnant − without exceptions for rape, abortions or nonviable fetal anomalies.

Sen. Vance posted his own reflections on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, the day after the vote, which he called "a gut punch" to abortion opponents. He said that doesn’t mean they should give up.

"Instead, we need to understand why we lost this battle so we can win the war," he wrote.

He said he found in talking to voters that many disliked Issue 1 but voted for it because they considered the Heartbeat Law even more extreme.

"This is political fact, not my opinion," Vance said.

"Second, we have to recognize how much voters mistrust us (meaning elected Republicans) on this issue … We need people to see us as the pro-life party, not just the anti-abortion party."

Vance quoted Trump as saying "you’ve got to have the exceptions," and said even though his preference is "to save as many babies as possible," giving voters a choice of exceptions would provide pro-life proponents with "a fighting chance."

"This is not about moral legitimacy but political reality," Vance wrote, adding that there needs to be sustained, years-long efforts to persuade people by showing "the heart of the pro-life movement."

Before then, though, it sounds as if some Republicans in the Statehouse will keep serving fat pitches down the middle to the abortion access side.

Happy Thanksgiving!

This column will be back in two weeks. Hoping everyone has a nice Thanksgiving and remember, the wise families ban any talk of politics in their get-togethers.

Dan Sewell is a regular Opinion contributor. Contact him at his personal email: dsewellrojos@gmail.com.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Could GOP primary help Brown? Senate race will keep Ohio in spotlight