Bubble Watch: Where Northeast Florida teams stand in FHSAA football playoff picture

The bubble watch is on.

Which Northeast Florida teams are going to make the cut for the Florida High School Athletic Association's new Metro/Suburban playoffs for high school football — and which ones are about to miss out?

Three weeks remain in the scramble for the playoffs. For teams that don't own district championships and the automatic postseason ticket that comes with them, these are anxious moments.

Although the FHSAA's ranking system — a variant of the national MaxPreps ranking — has replaced the RPI this year and the new Metro-Suburban system has changed the shape of postseason, the familiar scramble for position remains.

In Class 2M, 3M, 4M, 2S, 3S and 4S, the FHSAA will allocate at-large playoff berths — four per class per region — based on that ranking formula. In Class 1S and 1M, only two at-large berths are available per region, while in Class 1R, all postseason berths in each region will be determined by the ranking formula.

The Times-Union takes a closer look at some of Northeast Florida's teams on the bubble, with RPIs ranging from sixth to 11th in their respective regions.

More high school sports coverage:

• First Coast Varsity Weekly: Mandarin spikes way to long-awaited Gateway volleyball title

• T-U Power Polls: Northeast Florida high school football, volleyball, cross country rankings

• See the leaderboard: Northeast Florida high school football statistics leaders through Week 8

Fernandina Beach (3-3)

Current FHSAA ranking: 1.317.

Where they stand: Ninth in Region 1-2S.

Remaining games: Oct. 21 vs. Palatka, Oct. 24 at Yulee, Oct. 28 at Baker County, Nov. 4 vs. Middleburg.

Outlook: Last month, the Pirates looked like a team far away from playoff football. But Ta'Jon Nelms has transformed into a touchdown machine, finding the end zone 10 times (nine rushing, one passing) in the past two games, leading Fernandina Beach back to .500 and knocking on the door of the postseason race. They've got about two points to make up on the next at-large team in front of them, Tocoi Creek (Crescent City, which is eighth, is on course to advance to the playoffs directly as District 8-2S champion). But will overcoming a schedule of Palatka, Yulee, Baker County and Middleburg — the Pirates likely must win at least two of those games — prove too tall a hurdle?

First Coast (4-2)

Current FHSAA ranking: 3.696.

Where they stand: 11th in Region 1-3M.

Remaining games: Oct. 21 at Paxon, Oct. 27 at Fletcher, Nov. 4 vs. Jackson.

Outlook: Losing to Parker last week whacked a serious dent into the playoff hopes of the Bucs, who are still looking for their first regional playoff win since 2014. Next week's game at Fletcher's Jack Taylor Stadium looks crucial in determining the Bucs' postseason fate. Victory there, coupled with an Englewood win over Parker, would give the Buccaneers the district title on head-to-head record. Otherwise, it comes down to the FHSAA power rankings, and the Bucs have nearly five points to make up on the Senators because of strength of schedule. They'll also be hoping for slips from teams like Wekiva and Seffner Armwood, which could give them a glimmer of hope for an at-large bid. Even if down-state foes lose, though, First Coast would likely have to overcome Grayson Howard, Jeremiah Lovely and the Jackson defense in Week 11 — no easy feat.

Fleming Island (4-2)

Current FHSAA ranking: 5.589.

Where they stand: 10th in Region 1-4S.

Remaining games: Oct. 21 vs. Creekside, Oct. 27 at Buchholz, Nov. 4 vs. Orange Park.

Outlook: Last week's wild 35-28 win over Mandarin breathed new life into the playoff hopes of the Golden Eagles, who have qualified for the postseason in each of the last three seasons. But their work is far from over, and for now, they're on the outside looking in. Since a District 3-4S championship is out of reach as a result of their losses to Oakleaf and Bartram Trail, a victory Friday night against Creekside looks like a must. Fortunately for Fleming Island, Super 11 running back Samuel Singleton appears to be getting hot at just the right time, gaining a season-high 244 yards last week to defeat Mandarin. When he gets going at full speed, everyone — including Class 4S No. 2 Buchholz — will have to watch out.

Middleburg (3-5)

Current FHSAA ranking: -0.339.

Where they stand: Ninth in Region 1-3S.

Remaining games: Oct. 28 vs. Orange Park, Nov. 4 at Fernandina Beach.

Outlook: Even after last week's loss to Columbia, the Broncos' postseason hopes aren't dead in Region 1-3S. But they likely need to win out. Right now, they're only one-third of a ranking point behind the current No. 8 team, Pensacola Washington. So the Oct. 28 matchup against longtime Clay County rival Orange Park, already circled on the calendar, now becomes a true must-win for the Broncos. It's also a matchup of two of the area's most explosive running backs in Middleburg's T.J. Lane, above 1,000 yards through eight games, and Orange Park's JoJo Restall. And the Broncos can't expect an easy finish against Fernandina Beach, which has its own playoff hopes in Class 2S. In this region, a .500 record might be enough to Middleburg to march into their first standard postseason since 2016.

Ponte Vedra (3-4)

Current FHSAA ranking: 5.230.

Where they stand: 11th in Region 1-4S.

Remaining games: Oct. 21 vs. Orange Park, Oct. 28 at Nease, Nov. 4 vs. Creekside.

Outlook: The Sharks can't win District 4-4M — Flagler Palm Coast has wrapped that up — but thanks to a formidable strength of schedule, they're still in the hunt for an at-large berth, less than a point and a half behind Pace for the eighth-highest ranking in the district. To leapfrog three or more teams, Ponte Vedra must win at least two of its remaining games, and likely all three, including the Battle of the Bridge with Nease. Is that Mission Impossible? Not necessarily. After an 0-2 start, the Sharks have picked up the pace, particularly in a come-from-behind win over Bishop Kenny after quarterback Ben Burk led a crisp two-minute drill. Layne Swafford, Mack Gray and Trooper Price are standing out on the defensive end, too. But if the Sharks miss out, their three single-score losses (13-7 to Bartram Trail, 20-17 to FPC, 26-21 to Ocala Trinity Catholic) will leave a sting.

Ribault (3-4)

Current FHSAA ranking: -3.302

Where they stand: 10th in Region 1-2M.

Remaining games: Friday vs. White, Oct. 27 at Baldwin, Nov. 4 at Riverside.

Outlook: In their first year under head coach Ram Pinckney, the Trojans have already surpassed last year's victory count. Could they be playoff-bound? They can't overtake Jackson or Raines to win District 1-2M, but their FHSAA ranking gives them hope. They're locked in a three-way scrap with Riverside and Wolfson, and their schedule down the stretch could be the toughest of the three. There may be no Week 11 game in Jacksonville more important than Ribault's Nov. 4 trip to the new Backyard to face fellow bubble squad Riverside. But there's hope on Winton Drive: Ribault gave a real scare to rival Raines in the Northwest Classic two weeks ago, and with freshman Timothy Cole joining senior running back Damontrio Glee as a ground-gaining force, the Trojans have the pieces in place for some fireworks on offense.

Tocoi Creek (5-3)

Current FHSAA ranking: 3.696.

Where they stand: Seventh in Region 1-2S.

Remaining games: Oct. 28 vs. Keystone Heights, Nov. 4 vs. Nease.

Outlook: Target: playoffs in year two. The Toros are almost there, thanks in part to Wendell Dean, Kaiz Ragland and a relentless ground assault that's averaging nearly 30 points per game. Tocoi Creek is seventh in the regional ranking but at present would receive the eighth seed because the District 8-2S winner, most likely Crescent City, will be assured one playoff berth no matter its final record. Can they hold off the Nassau County charge behind them, Fernandina Beach in ninth place and Yulee in 10th? To feel confident, the Toros might need a win in the regular-season finale against St. Johns County rival Nease. Tocoi Creek is bidding to become the first St. Johns County public school to reach the playoffs in its second year since Bartram Trail in 2001.

Wolfson (3-4)

Current FHSAA ranking: -1.535.

Where they stand: Eighth in Region 1-2M.

Remaining games: Oct. 21 vs. Impact Christian, Oct. 27 at Episcopal, Nov. 4 at Englewood.

Outlook: The last time the Wolfpack reached the playoffs other than the COVID-19 season of 2020? Turn back the clock to 2006. It's been a long wait for the Wolfpack, but for now, Wolfson is clinging to that eighth-place spot under first-year head coach Step Durham. The question, though: Can they maintain their grip? After Friday's game against Impact Christian, the Wolfpack travel to Episcopal and then to Englewood in what could be the Southside rivals' most important meeting in well over a decade.

Yulee (3-3)

Current FHSAA ranking: 0.718.

Where they stand: 10th in Region 1-2S.

Remaining games: Oct. 21 vs. Episcopal, Oct. 24 vs. Fernandina Beach, Oct. 28 at West Nassau, Nov. 4 at Menendez.

Outlook: Compared to Tocoi Creek, Yulee's situation in Region 1-2S is the flip side of the coin. The big question: If the Hornets win out, are they in? Yulee's passing game is among Northeast Florida's most prolific, so the Hornets can definitely put up points. But they may have to win four games in a 14-day span, including three within the next week, as a result of their hurricane postponement against Fernandina Beach. It also means they'll be playing their two primary rivalry games, Fernandina Beach and West Nassau, only 96 hours apart. Yulee has already made progress, though, after five consecutive sub-.500 seasons.

FHSAA STANDINGS THROUGH WEEK 8

DISTRICT 1-4M

Mandarin 3.043

Sandalwood 2.257

Atlantic Coast -13.289

OTHER CONTENDERS IN REGION 1-4M

Sanford Seminole 14.251

Winter Park 13.325

Lake Mary 12.381

Apopka 11.634

Oviedo Hagerty 8.861

Lake Brantley 6.919

Orlando Boone 3.969

Lake Nona 3.477

Timber Creek 3.149

DISTRICT 1-3M

Fletcher 8.345

First Coast 3.696

Englewood -2.005

Parker -3.337

OTHER CONTENDERS IN REGION 1-3M

Edgewater 21.985

Tampa Bay Tech 14.440

Orlando Jones 12.921

Oviedo 11.873

Tampa Wharton 10.303

Wekiva 6.516

Winter Garden Horizon 6.218

Seffner Armwood 4.167

Lyman 3.910

DISTRICT 1-2M

Raines 12.581

Jackson 10.406

Ribault -3.302

DISTRICT 2-2M

Bishop Kenny 10.502

Bolles 9.175

Episcopal 5.677

Wolfson -1.535

DISTRICT 3-2M

White 7.551

Riverside -1.658

Westside -8.121

OTHER CONTENDERS IN REGION 1-2M

Bishop Moore 7.241

DISTRICT 1-1M

Trinity Christian 19.256

University Christian 15.600

Providence 1.089

NFEI -1.694

Christ's Church -6.279

OTHER CONTENDERS IN REGION 1-1M

Orlando First Academy 5.536

Orlando Christian Prep 1.732

Winter Garden Foundation Academy 0.936

DISTRICT 3-4S

Bartram Trail 18.509

Gainesville Buchholz 14.296

Creekside 9.302

Fleming Island 5.589

Oakleaf 1.358

DISTRICT 4-4S

Flagler Palm Coast 6.926

Ponte Vedra 5.230

Nease -5.491

OTHER CONTENDERS IN REGION 1-4S

Niceville 12.204

Navarre 9.753

Lynn Haven Mosley 7.021

Pace 6.617

Gulf Breeze 6.196

DISTRICT 3-3S

Columbia 7.490

Middleburg -0.339

Orange Park -5.943

Ridgeview -12.575

DISTRICT 4-3S

St. Augustine 3.697

Matanzas -4.023

Menendez -4.119

Clay -8.863

Gainesville -12.214

OTHER CONTENDERS IN REGION 1-3S

Pine Forest 14.709

Escambia 8.550

Tallahassee Lincoln 3.768

Choctawhatchee 1.699

Tallahassee Rickards 0.567

Pensacola Washington -0.005

DISTRICT 4-2S

Wakulla 13.331

Suwannee 6.391

Taylor County 2.424

OTHER CONTENDERS IN REGION 1-2S

Florida High 15.325

Pensacola Catholic 11.957

Panama City Bay 9.925

West Florida 8.489

Walton 4.833

South Walton 1.648

DISTRICT 5-2S

Baldwin 11.136

Baker County 8.513

Fernandina Beach 1.317

Yulee 0.718

West Nassau -3.338

DISTRICT 6-2S

Bradford 16.534

Palatka 7.612

Tocoi Creek 3.696

Keystone Heights -5.843

OTHER CONTENDERS IN REGION 2-2S

North Marion 7.838

Gainesville Eastside 5.127

Crescent City 1.802

DISTRICT 3-1S

Ocala Trinity Catholic 10.034

P.K. Yonge -5.122

St. Joseph -9.166

OTHER CONTENDERS IN REGION 2-1S

Melbourne Holy Trinity 0.829

Father Lopez -3.513

REGION 3-1R

Union County 8.860

Hilliard 6.884

Fort White 2.949

OTHER CONTENDERS IN REGION 3-1R

Mayo Lafayette 5.173

Madison County 2.074

Branford -1.191

Clayton Freeman covers high school sports and more for the Florida Times-Union. Follow him on Twitter at @CFreemanJAX, and sign up for the First Coast Varsity newsletter at https://profile.jacksonville.com/newsletters/first-coast-varsity/.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: High school football: Where Jacksonville teams stand in 2022 playoff race