With Bucshon out, the big question is: Who will replace him?

EVANSVILLE — Nothing, and everything, is known in the burgeoning speculation about a possible successor to retiring 8th District Congressman Larry Bucshon.

Bucshon had said he intended to run for re-election again this year, so no other Republicans and just one Democrat had made plans to seek his Southern and West Central Indiana seat in Congress. Bucshon will serve out the year in the U.S. House of Representatives, but for election purposes his seat is open for the first time in 14 years.

In the vacuum, political observers spit out so many names after Bucshon's retirement announcement Monday that it was barely possible to keep track of them all. The names of some potential candidates, most of them Republicans, came up immediately: State Rep. Matt Hostettler, son of former 8th District Rep. John Hostettler; State Sen. Mark Messmer of Jasper; and State Sen. Greg Goode of Terre Haute, who was the GOP's congressional nominee in 2008.

More: Indiana's 2024 session is here. How to find and follow your lawmakers this year.

Those are just some of the "obvious" candidates, the ones who might logically be positioned to move up. They're not the only ones.

Any number of ambitious politicians or wannabe politicians who see a member of Congress staring back at them in the mirror couldn't be counted out in the hours after Bucshon's retirement announcement. Any of the several Republicans who tried and failed to defeat Bucshon in GOP primary elections could run. Someone with credibility and the potential to raise money, but who doesn't currently hold any elected office, could run.

Even Democrats could run in the suddenly open 8th District, one of the most Republican congressional districts in the nation. With no incumbent in the race, it's a lot lighter lift.

"My phone hasn't stopped ringing and the text messages haven't quit coming since this news came out," said former state Rep. Dave Crooks, chairman of the 8th District Democratic organization.

Crooks, the Democratic challenger to Bucshon in 2012, admitted he's even considering running again himself.

"I am reconsidering it," said Crooks, a Clay County resident. "I'd ruled it out before Christmas because I just didn't think it was a great year to run in the 8th − but with an opening, honestly, I have to reconsider. It's an open seat. Open seats don't happen that often."

It would be a stern challenge for any Democrat.

The 8th is about as "red" as congressional districts come, according to The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index. The index measures how voters in the nation's 435 House districts cast their ballots in presidential races compared to the country as a whole.

A "PVI score" of R+3, for example, meant that in recent presidential elections, that district voted three percentage points more Republican than the national average.

The 8th District's PVI score? R+19.

More: Need an idea of how tough things are for local Dems? Check the 8th District race

Bucshon's looming retirement creates a third open-seat race in Indiana's nine U.S. House districts, with Congresswoman Victoria Spartz also opting not to run for re-election and Rep. Jim Banks seeking the Indiana GOP U.S. Senate nomination.

Ed Feigenbaum, editor of Indianapolis-based Indiana Legislative Insight, pointed to the appearance of a wild frenzy of candidates to succeed Spartz in her Indianapolis-area district after her retirement announcement last year.

For all the speculation, it didn't happen, Feigenbaum said.

"I published a list with little summaries of about two-dozen potential candidates, and all of them were big, serious names that would ordinarily be interested in running," the veteran political analyst said. "And here we are, and we're looking at the (candidate) filing starting this week, and it feels like every one of those candidates, save one, has said that they're not going to run."

Feigenbaum sounded one note of caution about the several state legislators whose names have been thrown around: Indiana’s 2024 legislative session has only just begun. Layering those responsibilities onto a brand new campaign for Congress in a 21-county district? Now, that would be a heavy lift.

"You've got to be in Indianapolis essentially four-and-a-half days a week or whatever, tending to legislative matters," Feigenbaum said. "You're going to have to be organizing a congressional campaign and raising money for a congressional campaign − and that's a tall order."

Truth be known, most ambitious politicians in Indiana's 8th District were pointing to 2026, Feigenbaum said. They thought Bucshon would serve one more term. He had said as much.

In the end, all the talk of a wide-open, crowded race to succeed Bucshon may be just that: talk. Mounting a campaign for Congress is for the hearty few, Feigenbaum said.

"This is probably going to winnow itself out from a very large list of potential hopefuls very quickly," he said.

This article originally appeared on Evansville Courier & Press: Who will run for Indiana's 8th District seat in Congress?