Budget, DEI & school choice: 6 things to watch during legislative session

For the past several months, all eyes have been trained on Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s winning gubernatorial campaign in November and the start of his second term.

Now, the Republican-led legislature gets its turn. And GOP legislators have plenty on their plate.

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Crafting a state budget will be the priority, as it always does in even-numbered years. Though Beshear has presented a proposal with such eye-catching spending initiatives as universal Pre-K, Republicans have consistently signaled they’re forging their own path on the most important bill of session.

As has been the case in years past, Republicans in both House and Senate caucuses appear likely to address a hot-button social issue that’s resonating in national conservative circles. Last year was transgender rights in the form of Senate Bill 150. The year before was the so-called Critical Race Theory with Senate Bill 1.

And this year, Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, commonly referred to as “DEI,” appears to be gaining steam and will catapult into focus.

National experts say DEI is a comprehensive description of programs, policies and strategies that promote the representation and participation of different groups of people, especially those who are often under-represented or under-served in the public space.

It typically encompasses people of different ages, races, ethnic backgrounds, abilities, disabilities, genders, religions, cultures and sexual orientations.

In late-December interviews, Republican leaders in the House and Senate told the Herald-Leader to expect something to address DEI efforts, which have drawn the ire of Republican-led state governments across the nation.

One social issue where the legislature could moderate its policy: Abortion. While nothing has been crystallized, both chambers of the legislature are at least discussing adding exceptions for rape and incest to the state’s near-total ban on the procedure.

Though Beshear has not been afraid to use his veto pen, the state GOP has the majorities (80-20 in the House and 31-7 in the Senate) to overpower him on most all issues, especially since veto overrides only take a simple majority of both chambers in Kentucky.

Hanging over this session, too, is a question of how Beshear’s relationship with the legislature might change at the start of a second term.

House Majority Floor Leader Steven Rudy, R-Paducah, said he doesn’t expect a significant change in that dynamic but that he recently had his first meeting with Beshear and it was a “pretty good” one.

Senate Majority Floor Leader Damon Thayer, R-Georgetown, who after Beshear’s win said there’s “no incentive” for the legislature to work with him, didn’t shut down the possibility of building a better relationship with the state’s chief executive.

When asked if there’s anything Beshear could do to repair the relationship, Thayer called Beshear “a smart guy,” and said, “If he wants to figure it out, I’m sure he will.”

The state budget

The state budget often takes a long and arduous path through the legislative process, but it begins in the House.

While Beshear has presented a budget proposal headlined by half-billion-dollar annual investments to raise school employees’ pay and a $172 million proposal to add Universal Pre-K, Rudy said to expect a “continuation budget” to come from the Republican-led House.

“Our budget team has been working on the House version since the last time,” Rudy said.

“The governor certainly is trying to get out ahead of us, and he figured out that we’re doing it early… We’ll skim through it (the governor’s budget proposal). His priorities are out there, but I think you’ll see the House budget be more like a continuation budget with some necessary modifications and some one-time investments in it.”

One major initiative likely to spotlight differences in spending between Beshear and Republicans’ budget: Cutting the state’s income tax.

The income tax will fall from 4.5% to 4% on Jan. 1, the second consecutive year in a row. However, the criteria was not met for another drop to occur in 2025. Rudy said that he absolutely expects Republicans to orient their proposed budget to hit the “triggers” required for it to drop again.

“That will be the House Republicans’ goal until the income tax is gone. We will always budget to the next trigger,” Rudy said.

Beshear’s education proposals have been largely ignored by the legislature thus far, but Rudy didn’t shut down the possibility of them influencing the budget this time.

Legislators have taken note of what other states, many led by Republicans, have done on the matter of teacher pay, he said.

“We’re looking at what some other states have done particularly in the area of teacher compensation. But they (teachers) are not state employees, and each individual district is different – some have already given raises – so a flat across-the-board (raise) just doesn’t make the best sense for our team, I don’t think,” Rudy said.

Meanwhile, Democrats in both chambers, as well as Beshear, are primed to keep advocating for school employee pay raises and for Universal Pre-K.

“Whatever issue you care about – decreasing justice system involvement, producing more high school graduates, higher wage earners – you get there by investing in Pre-K and investing with kids early on. We’re seeing Pre-K become something that’s not a blue issue or red issue,” Sen. Cassie Chambers Armstrong, D-Louisville, said on a Kentucky Educational Television program.

“I hope that we’ll see some real conversation about how we get there as a state, and if not we’re just gonna get left behind.”

Beyond education, Rudy mentioned possibilities for one-time investments in areas where Beshear and the legislature have found common ground before: Economic development and infrastructure. He mentioned last budget’s Kentucky Product Development Initiative, as well as investments in rail and riverport projects as items of interest.

Diversity, Equity & Inclusion

Republicans seem intent on passing something to limit DEI. However, the scope of that effort is unclear.

Thayer said it’s “very certain” that bills to do with DEI will get considered, and he expects something to pass.

“There’s a lot of anxiety out there about forced DEI, I think there will be something to deal with curbing its growth, but I don’t know if it’ll be more general or more specific to post-secondary education,” Thayer said.

In the Senate, Thayer has joined Senate Majority Whip Mike Wilson, R-Bowling Green and Sen. Lindsey Tichenor, R-Smithfield, in admonishing a regional higher education accreditation organization for considering DEI standards.

On the House side, Rep. Jennifer Decker, R-Waddy, released a statement on the matter. Rudy said that many of the House GOP members were interested in the subject and that there are “several different ideas” of what to do.

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis has touted a bill passed that prohibits public spending related to DEI programs and restricts teaching that systemic racism is inherent in American institutions.

The Tennessee legislature recently passed a law banning DEI statements and public institutions from paying for D.E.I. consultants or trainings.

Abortion exceptions

Grilling Republicans on the lack of exceptions for rape or incest in a law they passed banning most all abortions in the state was a key plank in Beshear’s winning platform this year.

Now, Republican legislative leaders are starting to think about modifying the current law. Exceptions were discussed at recent gatherings of Republican legislative leaders.

While leadership initiated these discussions, some social conservatives, such as Sen. Whitney Westerfield, R-Fruit Hill, are still strongly opposed.

“I have no idea where our caucus is. That’s a wait and see,” Westerfield said.

Thayer said the law would be difficult to change, but not impossible. He didn’t say whether he supported adding exceptions to the ban, but he said he’s been working to provide members with information on the subject.

He’s also wary of courts ruling in a way conservatives won’t like should they not pass additional exceptions.

“No matter what we do or don’t do, it’s going to be controversial. My concern is that if we don’t do something, the courts will eventually do something, and we’re not going to like what the courts do,” Thayer said.

School choice

Thayer’s final push – he’s not seeking re-election next year – will be an amendment to the state constitution to promote “school choice,” allowing for state money to help fund charter school and private school enrollment.

These initiatives have long been a top priority for many Republicans since they took control of the House in 2017, though a small contingent of rural GOP members has stood against such initiatives.

Legislative leaders have waxed confident about the likelihood they’ll get the three-fifths majorities needed to clear both House and Senate. However, any constitutional amendment passed this session would need to get approved by voters on the ballot in 2024.

Republicans’ recent track record on this score is not great, as Kentucky voters in 2022 rejected an anti-abortion amendment as well as one modifying certain aspects of the legislative session. State courts have also recently struck down bills on “school choice,” so some Republicans see an amendment as a final test for the issue.

“It’s the top priority for a lot of us, and it’s a really important issue for us to settle once and for all via a constitutional amendment,” Thayer said.

Another amendment could interplay with the school choice effort. Some groups are pushing to reform local taxation and allow for local governments to tax in more ways than they’re currently allowed by the state constitution.

The House has already passed such an amendment in sessions past, though Rudy said that between the two potential amendments there’s more clear support for the “school choice” amendment.

Thayer said he’d be more in favor of such an amendment if the legislature pursues a policy that would force local governments to reduce occupational taxes – one of a handful of taxes they’re allowed to levy – if they pursue adding new taxes.

Public safety

Its final form is uncertain, but a group of Louisville Republicans has been pushing an omnibus bill that would increase penalties for carjacking and fentanyl dealing and implement a “three strikes” life imprisonment law for violent felony offenses, among other things.

The bill recently garnered the approval of Sen. Rand Paul.

“If you murdered somebody, I’m not big on [second chances]. Some of those people will get out, but I’m for keeping them and as long as possible,” the Kentucky Republican said in a recent meeting with Frankfort lawmakers.

Thayer and Rudy said they expect a bill resembling the initial 18-point proposal to get final passage.

“I think there’s a good chance that some version of the Louisville crime bill will pass the Senate,”

Not all Republicans are exactly chomping at the bit to get such an effort through, though. Westerfield, a former prosecutor and chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, wasn’t entirely sold on the proposal but said it had a good chance of passing.

“Fighting crime is a winning campaign message. For as long as I’ve watched politics, it has been and I assume it always will be,” Westerfield said. “They want to be on the winning side of that argument.”

Child care cliff

COVID-era federal assistance to child care providers is coming to an end, raising alarm among advocates

Beshear, in his budget proposal, put up $141 million over the next two years in addition to the Universal Pre-K investment. According to the Kentucky Lantern, some advocates in the child care space worry that even that won’t be enough.

Republicans appear open to shelling out some funds on the matter, but are mum on what that final dollar figure might be.

Rudy said proposals to address the problem with one-time funds are “still in the oven,” but legislators are mulling their options.

“We want to make sure that the private childcare market is not disrupted, as we know it’s been under duress since COVID,” Thayer said.

“I’m sure there will be proposals to spend some tax dollars on it, but I don’t know what those proposals will be just yet.”