Budget jitters, a punishing way to reopen, and compensating college athletes

It’s Monday, June 15. Brace yourself. If you thought the last three months were challenging, here come the accountants.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

A window into the state’s financial future comes this week when the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity releases its May unemployment numbers and Gov. Ron DeSantis gets ready to veto hundreds of millions from the $93.2 billion state budget.

What do we know so far? Revenues have tanked. In late May, the Legislature’s Office of Economic & Demographic Research reported that revenue collections in April alone were more than $878 million below estimates. The drop in March: $773 million less than expected.

Billion+ budget hole: In a normal year, a $1.6 billion budget hole would be the kind of jaw-dropping development that would put the brakes on just about every state project.

But this is no normal year. The U.S. Department of Labor last Thursday released a report that estimated in the first week of June there were 110,520 new unemployment claims filed. That was the good news. It was nearly 50% less than the 207,707 in first-time claims reported the week before.

Then there are the increased costs. Medicaid enrollment is surging so much that the Agency for Health Care Administration estimates the state is going to need at least $1 billion more than expected to fill the gap.

$3 billion reserve: Funny thing is, there is no sense of panic among the Republican-controlled Legislature. Unlike, Washington, Florida can’t deficit spend but it’s got a $3 billion piggy bank known as the Budget Stabilization Fund. Legislative leaders have every intention of tapping it to avoid the need to come back and cut the budget before the November election.

So we’ll be watching how deep Gov. Ron DeSantis goes with his veto pen. The budget bill was passed by lawmakers in March. The new fiscal year starts July 1. Incoming Senate President Wilton Simpson predicts DeSantis will chop a healthy $700 million, at least.

County relief at last: Meanwhile, $1.3 billion in federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security, or CARES, Act, funding the state received in March will start trickling to the most effected counties, the governor’s office announced last week. The state has been sitting on the funds since March. The Florida Division of Emergency Management will provide checks of up to 25 percent of each county’s allocation for starters. The recipients are 12 Florida counties with populations greater than 500,000 --- Brevard, Broward, Duval, Hillsborough, Lee, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Orange and Volusia.

COVID cases double in May: If we can get past the economic jitters, what should we make of the surge in COVID-19 case numbers? Over the last few days, we have seen the punishment the novel coronavirus has imposed on Florida for moving to reopen most business. For three days last week, the state kept breaking its own record in the number of new, single-day COVID-19 cases. The numbers dropped slightly on Sunday — but remained above 2,000.

The data raises new questions about whether the governor acted too soon to move the 64 counties outside of South Florida into the second phase of reopening According to a Miami Herald analysis of the Florida health department’s case data, the week before the governor loosened social distancing restrictions on June 5, new cases increased by nearly 42%. For the month of May, they rose 50%.

WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT

More testing? The surge in new cases could not be explained by increased testing alone, since testing had increased by only 8 percent over the same period, the Herald analysis found.

DeSantis suggested last week in Coral Gables that because the increase in cases is being accompanied by a drop in hospitalizations, the expanded testing may be catching more mild or asymptomatic cases that don’t require hospitalization.

Fewer hospitalizations? The problem with that reasoning is that experts say it may also be too soon to tell if people are sick enough to need hospital care. If you live in Miami-Dade, you can watch these trends and assess your risk for yourself because the county reports current hospitalizations on its“Moving to a New Normal” COVID-19 data dashboard. But if you’re looking for that information from the Florida Department of Health, you won’t find it. It is one of dozens of pieces of data the state collects — but won’t publicly release.

Numbers game: What do the statistics actually mean and what are they telling us? The state produces reams of daily reports but a Miami Herald analysis found the COVID-19 records have been incomplete, changed without explanation, dropped from the Department of Health website without warning, or don’t match the public narrative advanced by the governor.

But a Herald review of both public and non-public data shows the governor’s public pronouncements were often in conflict with real-time facts. He either wasn’t aware the data showed that community spread, regional outbreaks and death tolls were worse than he was telling Floridians, or he selectively focused on outdated statistics to make his case.

Should the state tell us what it knows and make sense of it, or should that be left to counties like Miami-Dade? Some legislators want DOH to be more straight-forward and transparent: “Floridians can handle the good and the bad data,” one Republican told us.

Unemployed and overpaid: Another set of numbers that don’t make sense are emerging from the Department of Economic Opportunity from people who have been paid more than they claimed in unemployment benefits. State officials don’t have a solution except to say — yes, this is serious — hold on to the money for now. The state is still figuring out how to get it back.

‘Willful neglect’: The U.S. Senate is getting involved in probing Florida’s dysfunctional unemployment system. At a hearing before U.S. Senate Finance Committee, Democratic state Sen. José Javier Rodríguez said the jobless system, implemented by former Gov. Rick Scott, now a Republican U.S. senator, suffered from “willful neglect.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, both Democrats, asked the inspector general of the U.S. Department of Labor to investigate. Stay tuned.

Branding bonus: Beginning July 2021, Florida will become the first state to allow college athletes in the state to profit off their name, likeness and brand. The governor signed the bill into law last week at the University of Miami.

GOP goes for swing: The Republican National Committee announced it would move the celebration of President Trump’s nomination from Charlotte to Jacksonville — bringing the party’s party to one of the few true swing counties in what is likely to be one of the most pivotal swing states this cycle. The event is likely to attract thousands of Republican activists and media during a time of both pandemic and civil unrest. Will they be asked to sign waivers or take precautions? No word yet. The final day of the convention — Aug. 27 — also falls on the 60th anniversary of Ax Handle Saturday, a 1960 attack on black lunch-counter protesters seen as a tipping point in Jacksonville’s civil rights history and race relations.

Goodbye Gwen: We saw the end of an era last week as Gwen Margolis, a trailblazing Democrat who served four decades in the state Legislature representing North Miami-Dade County and also served in county offices, died last week. She was 85.

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