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Buffalo Bills control their destiny to No. 1 seed: Here's the path in AFC playoff picture

sal maiorana, rochester democrat and chronicle
·5 min read
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It would be pretty hard to imagine things going any better for the Buffalo Bills than the way Week 13 of the NFL schedule transpired.

After they got it started by going into New England Thursday night and rolling the Patriots 24-10, their third straight victory in a span of 12 days, the Bills were given a few much-needed days off by coach Sean McDermott.

And as they sat back and relaxed Sunday afternoon, they watched with glee as everything they could have possibly wanted to happen, did. Now the question becomes, can the Bills take advantage of their good fortune over the final five weeks of the season?

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While it’s true, they now have their destiny in their own hands because if they win their remaining five games they will win the division and be the No. 1 seed in the AFC bracket, but that task is going to be quite difficult.

AFC playoff picture: How the Bills moved back into top position in Week 13

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) leaps while trying to break through the defensive line during the first half of an NFL football game, Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) leaps while trying to break through the defensive line during the first half of an NFL football game, Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

The most important domino to fall Sunday was that Miami lost at San Francisco which enabled the Bills to climb back into first place in the AFC East with their 9-3 record, one game better than the 8-4 Dolphins. Above all else, winning the division is the No. 1 priority because without that, you have no chance for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

That leads to the second-most important result Sunday, the fact that Kansas City lost at Cincinnati to fall to 9-3 and into a tie with Buffalo for the AFC’s best record. And because the Bills own the critical head-to-head tiebreaker on the Chiefs, they leap-frogged back into the No. 1 seed which they had held for a few weeks earlier this season.

Not be overlooked was Minnesota - maybe the least impressive 10-2 team any of us has ever seen - somehow hanging on at the end to defeat the Jets which dropped New York to 7-5, two games behind the Bills in the division.

That’s significant because the Jets are at Highmark Stadium Sunday and had they beaten the Vikings and then gone on to pull an upset over the Bills, the teams would be tied at 9-4 and New York would have owned the tiebreaker edge based on a two-game sweep. Now, even if the feisty Jets do manage to win in Buffalo - and with that Jets defense playing so well, don’t write that off as improbable - the Bills would still be a game ahead.

Even Tennessee getting blown out by Philadelphia was a potentially meaningful development for the Bills because the Titans now have five losses. If the Bills end up losing the No. 1 seed to the Chiefs - which is definitely a possibility as I’ll explain soon - the Bills are currently in a good spot to claim the No. 2 seed.

They lead the Ravens and Bengals (both 8-4 and battling to win the AFC North), and the Titans who at 7-5 are still going to win the AFC South easily. The No. 2 seed would mean a home wild-card game, and, if they win that, a home divisional round game, the same scenario the Bills had in 2020.

Buffalo Bills schedule 2022: Tough stretch in the remaining games

Buffalo wide receiver Gabe Davis (13), center, is mobbed by teammates and fans as they celebrate his 98-yard touchdown reception for his first touchdown in the first half during their game Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park.
Buffalo wide receiver Gabe Davis (13), center, is mobbed by teammates and fans as they celebrate his 98-yard touchdown reception for his first touchdown in the first half during their game Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park.

However, here’s where a bit of reality has to be pointed out: Buffalo has a lot of work to do before any of that can happen.

They host the Jets Sunday, then the Dolphins, (a game that was just flexed to Saturday night at 8:15 p.m. on NFL Network), travel to the Bears and Bengals, and finish at home with the Patriots. That’s the 10th-most difficult finishing stretch in the NFL based on current records as those teams have a combined winning percentage of .525.

The good news is that the Jets (.550) have the sixth-toughest finish and the Dolphins (.541) have the ninth-toughest, and it’s even more challenging for those two because both have to play the Bills in Orchard Park. They also play each other in the final week, so one of them will suffer a loss.

If the Bills take care of business against the Jets and Dolphins, they will be almost assured of the AFC East crown, especially since sandwiched around their very tough game in Cincinnati Jan. 2 they play the 3-10 Bears and close with the mediocre Patriots at home.

NFL playoff standings: The path to a No. 1 seed for the Buffalo Bills

As for the No. 1 seed, that path isn’t nearly as promising as the one to the division title because even though the Bills control their destiny, they will probably need to run the table to achieve it because of - as usual - the omnipresent Chiefs.

If it feels like things always seem to break just right for the Chiefs, here’s further evidence: Their last five games are almost laughable - at Denver, at Houston, home to Seattle and Denver, at Las Vegas. Those four teams have a combined winning percentage of .325 which gives Kansas City the easiest remaining road by miles.

Sure, upsets are always possible in the NFL, but the Chiefs losing any of those games seems highly unlikely. Maybe the Raiders, if they’re still alive in the playoff race, could pull an upset, but I certainly wouldn’t bet any of my hard-earned money on it.

As for the Bengals, no one should count them out of the race for the No. 1 seed. They have the win over the Chiefs and get the Bills at home. However, Cincinnati has the fifth-toughest remaining schedule (.559) as they host the Browns, travel to the Buccaneers and Patriots, then host the Bills and Ravens.

So, while it was a spectacular weekend for the Bills, they have to get right back to work starting Sunday against the Jets, and really can’t afford a misstep the rest of the way.

As quarterback Josh Allen said after beating the Patriots, days before everything fell their way Sunday, “We've got to put our best foot forward … the ones in December and January, they matter and we've got to find ways to go win some football games.”

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.To subscribe to Sal's new twice-a-week newsletter, Bills Blast, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: AFC playoff picture: Bills have path to No. 1 seed, schedule is tough