Buffalo Bills have to 'handle business' but likely to open playoffs vs New England Patriots

ORCHARD PARK - One down, one to go in order for the Buffalo Bills to clinch their second consecutive AFC East division title.

The first part of the equation was perhaps a little tougher than Bills fans thought it would be Sunday. The Atlanta Falcons took a 15-14 halftime lead amid the worst passing game of Josh Allen’s four-year NFL career, but Buffalo regrouped in the second half and locked down a 29-15 victory.

The second part commences this Sunday, now a 4:25 kickoff, against the moribund New York Jets who, as bad their 4-12 record is, are certainly playing better now than they were when the Bills blew them out 45-17 at the Meadowlands in mid-November.

“Really just enjoying the moment,” safety Jordan Poyer said after the Bills clinched their fourth postseason berth in five years under Sean McDermott. “Obviously the job’s not finished; we’ve got to handle business next week, but definitely feels good.”

I’m not going to sit here and try to convince you that the Bills should be worried about the Jets. I’ll just point out that while they’ve gone 2-5 since their ugly loss to Buffalo, three of the defeats have been one-possession games - two to Miami which was red-hot at the time, and Sunday’s heartbreaking last-second loss to Tampa Bay.

Oh, they also have wins over the 11-5 Titans and 10-6 Bengals, plus the Jaguars team that beat Buffalo.

The Jets have been feisty, improving rookie Zack Wilson will be at quarterback instead of Mike White, and hey, never forget that loss to Jacksonville. Hey, never forget the final four minutes of the first half against Atlanta.

You’ve heard it a million times: You just never know how these NFL games are going to go, especially when a COVID outbreak can decimate a team as quickly as a rapid test.

As was the case following the big victory over New England, this is no time for the Bills to start feeling good about themselves. As Poyer said, there is work to do.

Here are some other observations I have:

Odds are the Buffalo Bills will meet New England Patriots in the first round

If nothing were to change in the standings based on the results of the Week 18 games and both the Bills and Patriots win, the rivals will play a rubber match in the wild-card round the weekend of Jan. 15-17 at Highmark Stadium.

The conference standings right now have the AFC East-leading Bills slotted as the No. 4 seed, lowest among the division leaders, while the Patriots sit at No 5, best among the wild cards.

The Bills are out of the race for the No. 1 overall seed and first-round bye, but they can still climb as high as No. 2, though they would need some help. In addition to beating the Jets, they would need the Chiefs to lose at Denver and the Bengals to lose at Cleveland. They could also slot in at No. 3 with a win, and either a Chiefs or Bengals loss.

The most likely opponent if the Bills get to No. 3 would be the Colts, and if they jump up to No. 2, it probably would be the winner of Sunday’s Chargers-Raiders game.

Getting to No. 2 is big because that would guarantee a second home playoff game, provided the Bills get past their first-round opponent. With the Chiefs-Broncos playing Saturday, and the Browns-Bengals playing Sunday at 1 p.m., the Bills will know what’s on the line by the time they take the field against the Jets.

Ed Oliver was a beast on the critical defensive series

After Josh Allen’s third interception early in the third quarter which gave the Falcons possession at the Buffalo 25, the hopeful result would have been the Bills’ defense limiting Atlanta to a field goal. Oliver had a different idea.

On first down he overpowered Falcons guard Jalen Mayfield (who according to Pro Football Focus had about as bad a day as humanly possible) and dumped Cordarelle Patterson for a three-yard loss. On second down he blew through a double team with amazing speed and sacked Matt Ryan for a four-yard loss.

Then on third down Oliver was held up at the line, but when Ryan scrambled to the left, Oliver stayed with the play and when Ryan shoveled a pass to Mike Davis, Oliver was right there and as Davis tried to secure the ball, Oliver poked it out for an incompletion.

“I just said before halftime they had just been getting so lucky and I knew what to expect,” Oliver said. “So I just attacked them. (Allen) threw the pick, and I was like, ‘Alright, time for me to go out.’ And I just went out there, let my instincts take over and just played. That’s how I feel about that.”

Oliver wasn’t done, either. In the fourth quarter his pressure forced Ryan to step up in the pocket where Harrison Phillips swallowed him for a sack.

“Ed made three great plays in a row – obviously it’s full team defense, but Ed’s got some freaky things to him where he can take over a game himself,” said Phillips, who also had a big day and led the Bills with six pressures. “That was a big stand for us defensively to get the ball back in our offense’s hands.”

I was pretty unimpressed by Oliver’s first two seasons in Buffalo, but the 2019 first-round pick has really had a fine third year and that series - which ended with no points, a Falcons punt, and an obvious turning point in the game - was a defining one for Oliver.

Third down and red zone were keys to the game

These are two areas that are often pivotal to success, and that was the case Sunday. The Bills were 7-of-12 on third down, which also helped them to go 4-for-5 in the red zone. On the flip side, the Buffalo defense hammered the Falcons as they converted just 1-of-7 on third down and went 1-for-3 in the red zone.

“Great situational football all over and we look at third down and the red zone on both sides of the ball, maybe that was part of the difference in the score,” said McDermott.

Yes, it was. In the last two games the Bills have held the Patriots and Falcons to 2-of-17 on third down and for the season, they rank No. 2 in third-down defense behind only Dallas as they are allowing conversions on just 32.5% of the third downs. In the red zone, the Bills are now sixth in the league as they’ve allowed TDs just 51.1% of the time.

On offense the Bills are fourth with a third-down success rate of 46.5% and in the red zone they have jumped up to eighth at 61.6%. All of that bodes well heading into the postseason.

Hold your breath in the return game

It was interesting how McDermott handled rookie Marquez Stevenson after his fumbled punt resulted in a safety. Rather than bench him like he did to Isaiah McKenzie after his fumbled kickoff against the Colts, McDermott gave Stevenson the opportunity to make amends.

“I thought that was important (to keep Stevenson in the game),” McDermott said. “Those are hard ones for a coach. The ball is so important. It’s hard to win when you do that and that was a valuable lesson for him and I hope a stepping stone in his career.”

But Stevenson later dropped another punt though he managed to regain control and turned it into a 19-yard return. He also had three kickoff returns for 74 yards. The talent and speed is there, but Stevenson has to get the ball security issue buttoned down for the postseason, especially since he’ll be playing in cold weather the rest of the way.

Extra points

► Josh Allen became the first QB in NFL history with four consecutive seasons in which he rushed for at least six touchdowns. He now has 31 rushing TDs, tied with Cookie Gilchrist for third-most in team history behind only Thurman Thomas (65) and O.J. Simpson (57).

► Devin Singletary became the first Bills running back to score a rushing TD in three straight games since LeSean McCoy in 2016.

► This was just the second time in Bills history where two players (Allen and Singletary) rushed for two TDs in the same game. The other occurrence came in 1978 when Terry Miller and Curtis Brown did it against the Giants.

► Not surprisingly, the Bills set a new season-high with 19 first downs via the rush. Their previous high was 12 against the Texans.

► All 10 of the Bills’ wins have been by double digits and their point differential is a league-best 177. It’s the highest in franchise history through 16 games (165 in 1990). Also, with 456 points, it’s the third-highest total behind 2020 (501) and 1991 (458), though both of those came in a 16-game season.

► Phillips has clearly overtaken Star Lotulelei in the interior line rotation. Perhaps the Bills were just easing Lotulelei back in after he missed five of the previous seven games, but he had only 18 snaps compared to Phillips (36), Oliver (32) and Eli Ankou (16).

► And speaking of players getting replaced, Ryan Bates is now undeniably the preferred choice at LG over Jon Feliciano and Feliciano will not take the role of being the backup at the three inside positions which Bates did for more than two years.

► With his sack Sunday, Mario Addison now has eight straight seasons of at least five, the last two of those having come with the Bills.

► Dawson Knox has had a good season, but he came up empty on a day when Allen could have really used him. His goose egg was pretty disappointing. The Falcons defense actually did a nice job against him, but if Knox hopes to become an elite player at his position, he needs to win on some of those routes.

► A Bills’ NFL record-holder was supplanted Sunday. Jerry Butler had held the mark for most yards receiving by a rookie since 1979 when he had 255 yards against the Jets. But the Bengals’ JaMar Chase broke it with 266 yards against the Chiefs.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills news, notes: Playoffs may start vs New England Patriots