Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins prediction and keys to the prime time AFC East showdown

ORCHARD PARK - Fortunes have certainly flipped quickly in the AFC East over the past few weeks and as a result, the Buffalo Bills - the overwhelming preseason favorite to win the division - are where we all expected, sitting in the drivers’ seat and speeding their way to a third straight title and fourth straight postseason appearance.

Back in Week 10 when the Bills inexplicably lost to the Minnesota Vikings and the Dolphins blew out the Browns, Miami sat alone in first place with a 7-3 record and owned the head-to-head tiebreaker on Buffalo.

When both teams won their Week 12 games, they were tied for the top spot, the Dolphins’ offense was looking unstoppable with no signs of derailment, and again, Miami’s 21-19 victory over the Bills in Week 3 was looming large.

Sign up for the Bills Blast newsletterDelivered straight to your inbox, additional Bills analysis, insight, stats, quotes and team history from Sal Maiorana

But now, as the teams get ready to face each other Saturday night at Highmark Stadium, the 10-3 Bills have grabbed control with back-to-back victories over the Patriots and Jets while the 8-5 Dolphins endured a terrible two-week jaunt through California and lost to the 49ers and Chargers.

Jump to: Sal's prediction for Bills vs Dolphins

If the Bills come away victorious, all they would need to officially clinch the division crown in the final three weeks is either one win, or one Miami loss. That’s a nice position to be residing, for sure. A Buffalo loss Saturday would complicate matters, but if that were to happen, the Bills would still be a game in front and in control of their divisional destiny.

Here’s my preview of the game:

Buffalo Bills on offense: Line needs to improve

One of the biggest problems the Bills had last week in their hard-fought victory over the Jets was the substandard play of the line which, at times, was overwhelmed by New York’s talented front.

Now, the Bills are facing a front that includes excellent pass rushers in Jaelen Phillips, Melvin Ingram and Bradley Chubb, plus a destructive tackle in Christian Wilkins. And they won’t have RG Ryan Bates who has been ruled out due to an ankle injury, so they will probably have to start Greg Van Roten. It’s certainly an area of concern.

The Dolphins can generate heat on Josh Allen with their front four, but they also have the fourth-highest blitz rate in the league and you saw that in full force last week when they came after the Chargers’ Justin Herbert with 28 blitzes on 56 dropbacks.

This season, Allen has been blitzed 29.5% of the time and he has completed just 56.9% of his passes with seven TDs and three interceptions. His completion percentage is 10 points higher when he isn’t blitzed. This is where WR Cole Beasley - if he’s active - could really help Allen because in the past, he’s been so good at winning his route early and giving Allen a quick option when he’s under pressure.

Stefon Diggs needs to bounce back after a rough day against the Jets. Diggs has been held under 100 yards in four straight games after going over 100 in six of the first nine games. If conditions allow it, he should be able to win routes against a Miami CB trio of Xavien Howard, Kader Kohou and Keion Crossen that is a big step down from the outstanding threesome the Jets used.

If the weather dictates that the Bills need to run more than they normally would, Devin Singletary and James Cook have to be far more useful than they were last week against New York and it won’t be easy. Miami’s defense ranks seventh against the run at 108.3 yards allowed per game with Wilkins and DT Zach Sieler clogging the middle. Wilkins leads all NFL defensive linemen in tackles with 75 and is fourth with 14 tackles for loss.

Buffalo Bills on defense: All about Hill and Waddle

There’s no secret to what Miami wants to do on offense. It throws the ball more than 63% of the time, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined to see 229 targets, most of those from QB Tua Tagovailoa. They have totaled 159 catches for 2,463 yards and 12 TDs and give the Dolphins the only NFL duo to have surpassed 1,000 receiving yards each. They provide the bulk of the Dolphins’ offense and if you just contain them, Miami is generally in trouble.

In the last two games, the 49ers and Chargers did a nice job of disrupting the two stars with aggressive press man coverage by the CBs and then protecting the middle of the field and forcing Tagovailoa to throw outside the numbers where he’s far less effective. The Bills don’t play a lot of press man, but outside of one big play by Waddle, they did a very effective job in the first game playing mostly zone, and that was without Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer who are both back in the lineup.

One of the keys for the Dolphins on offense has been its success on first-down plays as they lead the NFL with an average gain of 6.88 yards. That has helped them stay in favorable down and distance, but even when defenses get them behind the sticks, the Dolphins are as dangerous as any team in the league. They are tied for first in the NFL with 11 pass plays of at least 40 yards, six by Hill and four by Waddle.

On a night where passing figures to be difficult, the Dolphins could actually have success because the bulk of Tagovailoa’s throws are short. He gets it out quickly to Hill and Waddle and they pile up yards after catch, 814 between the two of them thus far, but he’ll have to prove he can handle inclement conditions the likes of which he has never seen before.

Sal’s prediction: Buffalo Bills 23, Miami Dolphins 14

There has been a lot of talk this week about how the expected miserable winter weather could really have a negative impact on the Dolphins. And hey, maybe it will. I’ll just say that the Bills haven’t exactly proven to be a proficient offensive team when the weather gets nasty, so maybe everyone is making more of this perceived Buffalo advantage than they should.

Couple that with the fact that this is a desperate Miami team that is suddenly fighting for its postseason life, and I think - just like last week against the Jets - the Bills are going to be in for a struggle and nothing is going to come to easy. Ultimately I think they’ll get it done because their defense, with the help of a gusty wind and a slick ball, will be able to contain Miami’s passing game which relies so much on timing and accuracy.

Bills vs. Dolphins: News and notes

▶ If Diggs makes six catches against the Dolphins, he will become just the sixth player in NFL history to record at least 100 receptions and 1,200 receiving yards in three-or-more consecutive seasons. The players already on the list are Antonio Brown (6), Marvin Harrison (4), Herman Moore (3), Jerry Rice (3) and Michael Thomas (3). Diggs can become the first player to ever accomplish the feat in each of his first three seasons with a team.

▶ This will mark the fourth game in NFL history featuring opposing players with at least 1,200 receiving yards on the season entering a matchup in Week 15 or earlier as Diggs is at 1,239 and Hill is at 1,460.

▶ Since entering the league in 2016, Hill ranks second among WRs with 74 total touchdowns (62 receiving, six rushing, four punt returns, one kickoff return and one fumble-recovery). He is also the only player in the Super Bowl era to score a 50-yard touchdown in five different ways.

▶ Through 14 weeks, the Bills are the only team in the NFL that has rushed for at least 100 yards in every game.

▶ This is just the third regular-season Saturday night game the Bills have played in franchise history. They played at Seattle in 2000 (Doug Flutie’s last game with the team) and hosted Denver in 2005.

▶ The Bills are 9-2 all-time against Miami in the Sean McDermott era, including 5-0 at home.

▶ Miami ranks second in the league in average yards per offensive play (6.18), trailing only the Chiefs (6.46). The Bills are third at 6.07.

Buffalo Bills schedule 2022

Thursday, Sept. 8 at Rams, W 31-10

Monday, Sept. 19 vs. Titans, W 41-7

Sunday, Sept. 25 at Dolphins, L 19-21

Sunday, Oct. 2 at Ravens, W 23-20

Sunday, Oct. 9 vs. Steelers, W 38-3

Sunday, Oct. 16 at Chiefs, W 24-20

Sunday, Oct. 23 Bye week

Sunday, Oct. 30 vs. Packers, 8:20 p.m.

Sunday, Nov. 6 at Jets, L 17-20

Sunday, Nov. 13 vs. Vikings, L 30-33

Sunday, Nov. 20 vs. Browns, W 31-23

Thur. 11/24 at Lions, W 28-25

Thur. 12/1 at Patriots, W 24-10

Sun. 12/11 vs Jets, W 20-12

Sat. 12/17, vs. Dolphins, 8:15 p.m.

Sat. 12/24 at Bears, 1 p.m.

Mon. 1/2 at Bengals, 8:30 p.m.

Sun. 1/8 vs. Patriots, TBD

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.To subscribe to Sal's new twice-a-week newsletter, Bills Blast, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Dolphins prediction and keys to the AFC East showdown