Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers prediction and keys to the game

ORCHARD PARK - Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin didn’t have to think too hard about his favorite Kenny Pickett game when they and Bills cornerback Dane Jackson were all teammates playing for the University of Pittsburgh.

“Our win over Miami, his first start,” Hamlin said, recalling the day after Thanksgiving in 2017 when Pickett led Pitt to a 24-14 upset victory at Heinz Field which ended the Hurricanes’ perfect season. That day, the freshman quarterback ran for two touchdowns and threw for another, and it launched what became a stellar four-year starting career for Pickett during which he threw for 12,303 yards and 81 TDs.

“JaQuan (Johnson) started for Miami that game so I give him a hard time about that win all the time,” Hamlin continued. “(Pickett) won the game, his first start and they were ranked No. 2 in the nation.”

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Sunday afternoon, Pickett hopes history will repeat itself as he will be making his first NFL start for the Steelers, doing so once again as a big underdog at Highmark Stadium.

Pickett, the Steelers first-round draft pick, took over for ex-Bills backup Mitch Trubisky in the second half last week in Pittsburgh’s 24-20 loss to the Jets and though he threw three interceptions, coach Mike Tomlin made the decision to move forward with the rookie, even though his first start is quite a difficult one.

“We have no reservations about what Kenny is going to be capable of in terms of schematics,”Tomlin said. “Obviously, we have a level of concern about the environment that we’re taking him into, but you have a level of concern about any quarterback you take into that environment versus that defense in that venue.”

Here are my keys to the game and prediction:

1. Bills injuries far more impactful than Steelers

Early in the week it sure looked like the Steelers were going to be dealing with nearly as tough an injury situation as the Bills, but that certainly changed as the practice week closed down. Yes, the Steelers will be without star edge rusher T.J. Watt, but all the concern about their banged up secondary sure seems to be a whole lot of smoke now.

Five defensive backs were on the report, but the Steelers announced Friday that only two are questionable: CBs Cam Sutton and Ahkello Witherspoon. The other three all returned to practice Friday and will play: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Terrell Edmunds and Levi Wallace. Also, DT Cam Heyward and WR Diontae Johnson were back practicing and will play.

On the other hand, the Bills are facing a crisis for the third week in a row. They won't have SS Jordan Poyer, TE Dawson Knox, CB Christian Benford and WRs Jamison Crowder and Jake Kumerow. Further, LB Tremaine Edmunds, DTs Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips, and WR Isaiah McKenzie are all questionable.

For Pickett, not having to worry about Poyer in the back end will be a relief considering how important he has been to the Bills’ success with four interceptions. So rather than facing Poyer and Micah Hyde (who is out for the season) Pickett will instead be attacking Hamlin and Johnson as the safety tandem. They were Buffalo’s pair for the loss in Miami, and were victimized on the play of the game, Tua Tagovailoa’s deep shot to Jaylen Waddle that set up the winning touchdown.

2. Will the Steelers be able to score?

Even with the Bills’ injury situation, this looks like a terrible matchup for Pickett and the Steelers’ mostly inept offense. Trubisky wasn’t able to get anything working in his 3 ½ games of action. When Pickett took over against New York he showed a little more of a willingness to push the ball downfield, but the results were middling at best and now he has to go against a Bills pass defense that, even without Poyer and Hyde can be tough to beat.

“Obviously, it’s a huge challenge,” Pickett said of the Bills defense. “There’s a lot that goes into it. We could be here all day talking about how many great things they do and all the great players that they have. Former teammates of mine at Pitt in Dane and Damar, obviously, they’re high-level players. So, we have our work cut out for us.”

Pickett got fellow rookie George Pickens involved in the offense last week and the WR caught four passes for 71 yards from Pickett in the second half. Johnson is a reliable possession receiver, and Pickett also can turn to WR Chase Claypool, though he really hasn’t done much of anything this season. The one weapon to watch is TE Pat Freiermuth. With Poyer out and Edmunds possibly joining him, Freiermuth may be able to do some damage over the middle.

What the Steelers may try to do is establish RB Najee Harris to take some of the heat off Pickett, and also to perhaps keep Josh Allen and company on the sideline. Last week the Ravens possessed the ball for more than 38 minutes in part because they were able to run the ball against the Buffalo defense. They had two drives longer than nine minutes and one that lasted 7:40. The Steelers would love to achieve that.

3. Will the Buffalo Bills offense start humming again?

It got off to a great start in the blowouts over the Rams and Titans, but in the games against the Dolphins and Ravens the Bills managed only 40 points combined on offense. In Miami they piled up 497 yards but couldn’t finish drives, and then last week in Baltimore they got off to an awful start before finding some success on the final drive of each half, the last of which won the game.

And now, they will be playing without Knox and Crowder, and while Gabe Davis has taken full reps in the last two games, regardless of what he tells the media, his ankle injury has affected his performance as he has just four catches for 50 yards in the last two games. This means the Bills really need McKenzie to get out there, and rookie WR Khalil Shakir will have to shoulder some of the load as well.

The Steelers have not been sharp on defense and they have been particularly vulnerable to the run, ranking 24th in the NFL to this point. It would be nice to see the Bills’ offensive line start winning a little more often in the run game so that Devin Singletary can eat, but I expect that Allen will attack this banged up Steelers secondary.

Stefon Diggs was mostly neutralized in the rain last week by the Ravens, and now that the Steelers look to be OK in the secondary - especially with Fitzpatrick playing - they can try to steal a page from the plans of the Dolphins and Ravens. Both of those defenses knew Davis was hobbling and not effective and they concentrated on Diggs, so offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey needs to figure out ways to get Diggs open.

Sal’s prediction: Buffalo Bills 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 16

This is the first time since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 that the Steelers have been at least a 14-point underdog which is rather remarkable and speaks to their relentless consistency. Tomlin has never had a losing since he took over as head coach in 2007.

But right now, the Steelers just aren’t very good while the Bills are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, so it would not be a surprise if this game turns into the blowout the oddsmakers are forecasting. When you look at the matchup on paper, the Bills, even in their injury-depleted state, are by far the superior team in almost every area, and nowhere is it more lopsided than at QB.

Still, the Steelers just don’t get blown out. Despite all their problems on both sides of the ball, they remain a tough, resilient team and while I have full confidence that the Bills will get the win, I think it’ll be a little closer and tougher than many others believe.

Extra points

▶ The one Steeler who the Bills have to account for on defense is DT Cam Heyward, a monster of a player who killed the Bills last season, especially against the pass as he racked up 12 pressures and a sack. However, it did help him to have Watt in that game.

▶ And if Heyward isn’t a big enough problem, edge rusher Alex Highsmith will also test the Bills offensive line. He leads the team with five sacks and 16 pressures while LBs Myles Jack and Devin Bush are the top tacklers.

▶ If Edmunds can’t play, it will be interesting to see who gets his spot, Tyrel Dodson or rookie Terrel Bernard. Regardless of who it is, Matt Milano, who has played great this season, will have more on his plate, particularly in coverage. His 62.0 passer rating against is second among all LBs in the NFL.

▶ I would expect the Bills will call up Isaiah Hodgins from the practice squad as the fifth WR with both Crowder and Kumerow sidelined. I thought Tavon Austin would have been the choice, but he essentially quit the team on Tuesday, disappointed with his lack of playing time.

▶ The Steelers offensive line has held up pretty well, but Von Miller and Greg Rousseau will have chances to harass Pickett. For this reason, I think the Steelers will try to get the ball out of his hands as quick as possible, and they’ll probably mix in some rollouts and RPO action because Pickett does have mobility.

Bills and Steelers team rankings

Bills SteelersTotal offense: 412.5 yards (3rd); 278.8(30th)Rush offense: 115.5 yards (12th); 97.3 (23rd)Pass offense: 297.0 yards (2nd); 181.5 (28th)Points scored: 28.5 (5th); 18.5 (23rd)Total defense: 234.5 yards (2nd); 383.0 (24th)Rush defense: 83.8 yards (3rd); 131.5 (24th)Pass defense: 150.8 yards (1st); 251.5 (21st)Points allowed: 14.5 (2nd); 22.5 (15th)

Bills and Steelers individual leaders

Rushing

BILLS: Josh Allen 30 carries, 183 yards; Devin Singletary 34-129; Zack Moss 16-84; James Cook 13-58. STEELERS: Najee Harris 58-202; Jaylen Warren 14-70; Chase Claypool 7-47; Mitch Trubisky 7-24.

Passing

BILLS: Josh Allen 113 of 168, 1,227 yards, 10 TDs, 3 interceptions. STEELERS: Mitch Trubisky 69 of 116, 653 yards, 2 TDs, 2 interceptions; Kenny Pickett 10 of 13, 120 yards, 0 TDs, 3 interceptions.

Receiving

BILLS: Stefon Diggs 31 catches, 406 yards; Devin Singletary 17-141; Isaiah McKenzie 15-153; Dawson Knox 12-111; Gabe Davis 8-138;; Jamison Crowder 6-60; Zack Moss 7-27; Jake Kumerow 4-64; Reggie Gilliam 4-39; James Cook 4-37; Quintin Morris 3-28. STEELERS: Diontae Johnson 23-207; Pat Freiermuth 18-223; George Pickens 11-167; Chase Claypool 11-79; Najee Harris 10-48.

2022 Buffalo Bills schedule

Thur. 9/8 at Rams, W 31-10

Mon. 9/19 vs. Titans, W 41-7

Sun. 9/25 at Dolphins, L 19-21

Sun. 10/2 at Ravens, W 23-20

Sun. 10/9 vs. Steelers, 1 p.m.

Sun. 10/16 at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.

Sun. 10/23 Bye week

Sun. 10/30 vs. Packers, 8:20 p.m.

Sun. 11/6 at Jets, 1 p.m.

Sun. 11/13 vs. Vikings, 1 p.m.

Sun. 11/20 vs. Browns, 1 p.m.

Thur. 11/24 at Lions, 12:30 p.m.

Thur. 12/1 at Patriots, 8:15 p.m.

Sun. 12/11 vs Jets, 1 p.m.

Sun. 12/18, vs. Dolphins, TBD

Sat. 12/24 at Bears, 1 p.m.

Mon. 1/2 at Bengals, 8:30 p.m.

Sun. 1/8 vs. Patriots, TBD

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.To subscribe to Sal's new twice-a-week newsletter, Bills Blast, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Steelers prediction and keys to the game