Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets prediction and keys to AFC East matchup
Last week on the Sunday Night Football pregame show, the NBC analysts were gushing about the greatness of Josh Allen, which makes them no different than any other crew from any other network.
Everyone is gushing about the transcendent Buffalo Bills quarterback, and rightly so. He has become the gold standard for the position alongside Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, and in 2022 there really isn’t anyone else to consider now that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers seem to have finally gone into decline.
Jason Garrett, the former head coach of the Cowboys who before that was Troy Aikman’s backup for seven years in Dallas, compared Allen to the fictional baseball character Roy Hobbs portrayed by Robert Redford in the movie The Natural, which coincidentally was filmed in Buffalo three decades ago.
“To me, he’s Roy Hobbs from The Natural,” Garrett said. “We’ve talked about Aaron Rodgers making it look easy; this guy makes it look easy.”
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Good sound bite for sure, but the more pertinent comment during that segment is what Tony Dungy said about Allen, one that should have made the hearts of Bills Mafia skip a happy beat.
“My coach in Pittsburgh, Chuck Noll, always said, ‘Champions do the ordinary things better than everybody else’ and that’s what I’m seeing with Josh Allen this year,” Dungy said. “We’re seeing (fundamentals), but of course, when you need an extraordinary play, this guy can do it as well as anybody.”
Making it look easy is certainly fun to watch, but it’s the other stuff that matters more on the way to quarterbacking a Super Bowl champion. It’s honing in on the minutiae of the position, finding ways to get it done no matter the situation, study and practice habits, being a good teammate, and being a leader.
That’s what champions do and Dungy — who was a part of one Super Bowl winner as a player for the Steelers and one as a head coach for the Colts — clearly believes that’s what separates Allen from just about all of his peers.
Here’s my preview of the game:
What the Buffalo Bills need to do on offense: Gabe Davis needs to step up
After his incredible performance in the playoff loss to the Chiefs last January, I fully expected Davis to make a quantum leap in 2022 and give the Bills one of the best 1-2 WR duos in the NFL along with Stefon Diggs. However, outside of his two dynamic long-distance TDs against the Steelers, Davis has been somewhat underwhelming through seven games.
He looked great in the opener in Los Angeles but suffered an ankle injury which forced him to miss the Titans game and hampered him the next two weeks as he caught only four passes for 50 yards against the Dolphins and Ravens combined. He’s been good to go since Pittsburgh, but for the season he has only 16 catches. Subtract the Steelers game and he has only 13 for 247 yards.
Last week, Green Bay’s stud CB Jaire Alexander covered Davis on 14 of 23 routes and he had one interception and did not allow Davis a reception on four targets. Davis had only two catches for 35 yards in the game.
Sunday, the Jets have a pair of excellent CBs in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. It doesn’t seem like Gardner will travel with Diggs, so Davis will see both and he needs to start taking some of the burden off Diggs who has been targeted 38 more times than Davis and has 53 catches for 764 yards.
As for newly-acquired RB Nyheim Hines, I would expect he’ll get a small package of plays on passing downs and be the punt returner, but look for Devin Singletary to continue to be the primary back, especially on rushing attempts.
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What the Buffalo Bills need to do on defense: Pressure Zach Wilson
The Jets are winning almost in spite of the second-year QB who has continued to struggle. His 71.0 passer rating is 34th among QBs who have started at least three games, his completion percentage of 54.9 is tied for 35th, and one of the biggest reasons for those terrible numbers is his repetitive failures when pressured.
When the Jets’ line has given him protection he’s been able to function reasonably well, but that disappears when the pass rush forces him to leave the pocket and his passer rating is an absurdly low 9.8. It’s almost impossible to be that ineffective.
The Jets have some nice weapons at his disposal, particularly rookie WR Garrett Wilson and TE Tyler Conklin. But WR Corey Davis remains sidelined and high draft pick WRs Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims have not been able to get in sync with Wilson and both have been vocal in the dissatisfaction.
New York lost rookie RB Breece Hall for the season which is a big blow, so it traded for RB James Robinson the next day. The ex-Jaguar will now be in his second week in the offense and may have a more prominent role.
The Jets saw the way the Packers ran against the Bills last week and one would think — given Buffalo’s strong pass rush — that they would rather rely on Robinson and RB Michael Carter on the ground which would also help keep Allen and the Bills offense off the field.
Bills vs Jets: News and notes to know
▶ On the injury front, SS Jordan Poyer is out once again, so that means JaQuan Johnson will start alongside Damar Hamlin with newly acquired Dean Marlowe in reserve. LB Matt Milano (oblique) was limited all week in practice and will be a game-time decision, and it looks like DE Von Miller, who practiced in full Friday, will be good to go. As for CB Tre'Davious White, it's anyone's guess whether he'll be active and play.
▶ The Jets rank 27th in first downs per game, 29th in third-down conversions, and now they face a Buffalo defense — albeit a little banged up — that ranks first in fewest points allowed, third in yards allowed and fourth in rush yards allowed.
▶ If the Bills play to form Sunday, they have a chance to become the third team ever to average at least 425 yards of offense and allow fewer than 300 yards per game on defense through its first eight games of a season, joining the 2010 Chargers and 2007 Patriots.
▶ Buffalo also enters the week with the league’s top-scoring defense (14.0 ppg allowed) and second-highest scoring offense (29.0). The Bills could become the fourth team since 1970 to average at least 30 points and allow fewer than 14 points through their first eight games of a season, joining the 2019 Patriots, 1996 Packers and 1991 Commanders.
▶ When Hines was on the field in Indianapolis, he was not ignored. Since entering the league in 2018, he has been targeted on 29% of his pass routes which is the fifth-highest rate in the NFL among all players with at least 900 targets.
▶ The Bills have faced several of the best DTs in the league this season, and now they get another one in Quinnen Williams. He has six sacks, five other tackles for loss, and 16 quarterback hits in eight games. He can be a game-wrecker, especially with LB C.J. Moseley lined up behind him.
▶ Last week, Allen was pressured on 40.7% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in a game in his career, though he was hardly bothered as he completed 6 of 9 passes for 166 yards and 2 TDs when under heat.
▶ Allen has totaled 2,504 combined passing and rushing yards, third most in history through seven games behind only Peyton Manning (2,542 in 2013) and Drew Brees (2,512 in 2011).
▶ Diggs’ 26-yard TD catch against the Packers last week was Diggs’ most improbable catch of the season (22.5% completion probability according to NextGenStats). Diggs had 0.6 yards of distance between him and the sideline at the time of the catch.
Sal’s prediction: Buffalo Bills 23, New York Jets 10
Before the season, I would have guessed five wins might be the Jets total by the end of the year. They got there in their first seven games, so this has already been a huge leap forward for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2010 and has had one winning record (2015) since then.
The key has been the play of the defense, and I think that will be what allows the Jets to keep this game relatively close. The Bills’ offense is obviously capable of exploding at any moment, but this will be a tough test against a feisty division opponent looking to make a statement.
The difference in the end will be Buffalo’s own defense — even possibly minus a few key players — shutting down a struggling New York offense that ranks 18th in scoring and has scored only three touchdowns in the last two games. Unless something crazy happens in the turnover game, I just don’t see Wilson putting up more points than Allen.
Buffalo Bills schedule 2022
Thur. 9/8 at Rams, W 31-10
Mon. 9/19 vs. Titans, W 41-7
Sun. 9/25 at Dolphins, L 19-21
Sun. 10/2 at Ravens, W 23-20
Sun. 10/9 vs. Steelers, W 38-3
Sun. 10/16 at Chiefs, W 24-20
Sun. 10/23 Bye week
Sun. 10/30 vs. Packers, 8:20 p.m.
Sun. 11/6 at Jets, 1 p.m.
Sun. 11/13 vs. Vikings, 1 p.m.
Sun. 11/20 vs. Browns, 1 p.m.
Thur. 11/24 at Lions, 12:30 p.m.
Thur. 12/1 at Patriots, 8:15 p.m.
Sun. 12/11 vs Jets, 1 p.m.
Sun. 12/18, vs. Dolphins, TBD
Sat. 12/24 at Bears, 1 p.m.
Mon. 1/2 at Bengals, 8:30 p.m.
Sun. 1/8 vs. Patriots, TBD
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.To subscribe to Sal's new twice-a-week newsletter, Bills Blast, please follow this link: profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs. Jets prediction, what to know about AFC East game
