Buffalo tops Zillow's hottest housing markets for 2024. Why was Rochester left off the list?
Buffalo is projected to be the nation's hottest housing market this year, according to the latest analysis from real estate company Zillow.
The company in a news release described affordability as the "most powerful force driving real estate," as is seen in the Queen City and other lower-cost markets in the Great Lakes, Midwest and South regions at the top of the company's 2024 rankings.
"Housing markets are healthiest where affordable home prices and strong employment are giving young hopefuls a real shot at buying and starting to build equity," Anushna Prakash, data scientist for Zillow Economic Research, said in a news release.
"I'm cautiously optimistic that the housing market will get back on stable footing in 2024 − we shouldn't see the massive price spikes of the early pandemic or fast-rising mortgage rates of recent years," Prakash said.
There are some signs the housing market will improve in 2024. Mortgage rates dropped steadily over the past seven weeks, averaging 6.61 % for a 30-year fixed mortgage, the week ending Dec. 28. The lower mortgage rates provided a boost to existing-home sales, which grew in November, up 0.8% from October and breaking a streak of five consecutive monthly declines, according to the National Association of Realtors.
However, one thing most experts don't expect to see is an end to shortage of homes for sale.
"Despite this, households will have more options in 2024 from a small uptick in single-family home construction, and the completion of the large number of multifamily units that are under construction, the vast majority of which are destined to be rental homes," said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.
Why Rochester was left off Zillow hottest housing markets list
Rochester did not qualify to be included in Zillow's Top 10 or Top 50 list of hottest housing markets, though the region is known for its affordability. According to Zillow, Rochester's size is "just outside the largest 50 metros" as it is the 51st largest metro area in the country based on their data.
When considering Rochester with the final published list, the Flower City would have ranked fifth – between Columbus, Ohio and Indianapolis, Indiana, according to Zillow spokeswoman Claire Carroll.
According to the Greater Rochester Association of Realtors, the most recent annual report, for 2022, the median price of a home in Monroe County that year was $210,000 and $247,000 in Ontario County. Nationality, the median sales price of a home in 2022 was $392,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Zillow placed Rochester's median home value for 2023 at $233,695.
Methodology used by Zillow to determine the hottest housing markets
The company said the ranking examines the nation's 50 most populous metros and takes into account Zillow's forecast for local home value growth and the speed at which home sellers are entering contracts with buyers.
The analysis also incorporates:
Expected home value appreciation from December 2023 through November 2024
Job growth per new home permitted
Growth in owner-occupied households
According to Zillow's analysis, Buffalo has the highest number of new jobs per home permitted – a measure of expected demand, as new jobs often mean new residents.
Zillow also measured typical home value, the average mortgage payment, typical rent, and the average number of days a house is on the market for each city.
Zillow's top 10 hottest housing markets of 2024
Buffalo, New York
Cincinnati, Ohio
Columbus, Ohio
Indianapolis, Indiana
Providence, Rhode Island
Atlanta, Georgia
Charlotte, North Carolina
Cleveland, Ohio
Orlando, Florida
Tampa, Florida
Contributing: Gabe Hauari and Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy of USA TODAY
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Zillow top 10 hottest housing markets 2024: Buffalo tops list
