Buresh Blog: Heat is On!...El Nino Update...NOAA hurricane season forecast update...Hawaii wildfire

Mike Buresh
·2 min read

Updated every day during the hurricane season: “Talking the Tropics With Mike”.

It’s been a hot July & early August in Jacksonville. Now - it’s been hotter, but the temps. have been notable with July at JIA the hottest since the thermometer has been at the Int’l. Airport - since 1956 - & the 4th hottest since 1871 (the period of weather record for Jacksonville).

The El Nino - a warming of the equatorial Pacific continues & is strengthening in what looks to be a moderate to strong El Nino following 3 straight La Nina’s (cooling of the equatorial Pacific):

El Nino is known for helping to cause fewer Atlantic hurricanes, more Pacific hurricanes... a wet/stormy winter from California east along the Gulf Coast including Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga... & generally milder winters at northern latitudes.

Most of the forecast models peak the El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere’s late fall into winter:

NOAA has issued their updated seasonal hurricane forecast & increased the numbers despite the ongoing & increasing El Nino. Most of the reasoning is based on very warm ocean temps. Ultimately the season will, of course, be remembered - or not - for any storms that make landfall & their strength upon landfall. The First Alert Hurricane Center * here *.

Terrible wildfires in Hawaii - centered on Maui. More * here * & * here * on Action News Jax. A combination of very strong winds & dry conditions conspired to make for a literal death trap on the island. Somewhat ironically - but probably not simply a coincidence- a similar fire occurred in Maui in the late 1800′s during a strong El Nino. Some facts regarding the wildfire: * much of Hawaii is typically dry this time of year. For Kahului to the west of Maui on the same island, rainfall for June averages 0.12″... July: 0.53″ & the first half of Aug.: 0.17″. So it’s typically dry this time of year. * strong trade winds are a trade mark of Hawaii’s summer with gusts frequently above 20-30 mph & sometimes - as was the case in last week’s horrific wildfire - up to 60, even 70 mph. A similar fire & set-up occurred in the late 1800′s.

An attendee reacts during a Sunday church service held at Lahaina's Grace Baptist Church.
An attendee reacts during a Sunday church service held at Lahaina's Grace Baptist Church.
A burnt-out car lies in the driveway of a charred house in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, Hawaii.
A burnt-out car lies in the driveway of a charred house in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, Hawaii.
A burnt out car and a sign reading
A burnt out car and a sign reading
Tempers flared as residents waited in long lines as they are not allowed to pass a checkpoint to return to their homes in Lahaina.
Tempers flared as residents waited in long lines as they are not allowed to pass a checkpoint to return to their homes in Lahaina.
A resident found some dishes among the rubble of a house that survived the wildfire.
A resident found some dishes among the rubble of a house that survived the wildfire.
Crews are searching areas for flareups, items, and missing people following the wildfires in Hawaii swept through the area.
Crews are searching areas for flareups, items, and missing people following the wildfires in Hawaii swept through the area.
Maui residents John Rey Serrano and Lexie Lara look from a road above Lahaina Town in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Maui residents John Rey Serrano and Lexie Lara look from a road above Lahaina Town in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Davilynn Severson holds a page of a yearbook as she looks for belongings through the ashes of their family's home in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina.
Davilynn Severson holds a page of a yearbook as she looks for belongings through the ashes of their family's home in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina.
Maui resident John Rey Serrano reacts while looking from a road above Lahaina Town in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Maui resident John Rey Serrano reacts while looking from a road above Lahaina Town in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Hano Ganer looks through the ashes of his family's home on Malolo Place in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Hano Ganer looks through the ashes of his family's home on Malolo Place in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Trixy Nuesca-Ganer looks through the ashes of their family's home in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina.
Trixy Nuesca-Ganer looks through the ashes of their family's home in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina.
A woman cradles her cat after finding him in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
A woman cradles her cat after finding him in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Burnt books are seen by the public library in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Burnt books are seen by the public library in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
A burned cars sits among destroyed buildings in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
A burned cars sits among destroyed buildings in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
A destroyed building is pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
A destroyed building is pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Burned cars, destroyed buildings and homes are pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii
Burned cars, destroyed buildings and homes are pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii
Destroyed buildings and homes are pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Destroyed buildings and homes are pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Residents walk among their destroyed home in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Residents walk among their destroyed home in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Zoltan Balogh clears away trees that were burned by wildfire in Kula, Hawaii.
Zoltan Balogh clears away trees that were burned by wildfire in Kula, Hawaii.
In an aerial view, cars back up for miles on the Honoapiilani highway as residents are allowed back into areas affected by the recent wildfire on Friday.
In an aerial view, cars back up for miles on the Honoapiilani highway as residents are allowed back into areas affected by the recent wildfire on Friday.
Burned houses and buildings are pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire, is seen in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.
Burned houses and buildings are pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire, is seen in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii.