Buresh Blog: Winter forecast... First freeze of the season... JU Climate Challenge

Mike Buresh
·2 min read

“Talking the Tropics With Mike” - updated every day through Nov. 30th.

Powerful infamous Cat. 5 hurricane Otis hammered Acapulco & nearby areas of Mexico Wed., Oct. 25th - the strongest hurricane in modern history to hit Acapulco. Otis was also the fastest strengthening hurricane of the satellite era increasing from a tropical storm Tuesday morning to a Cat. 5 hurricane Tue. evening (winds increased 80 mph in 12 hours)!

NOAA has issued its winter forecast for the months of December, January & February. In general - above avg. temps. across northern latitudes of the Lower 48... & wetter than avg. across the south.

The forecast is predicated on the strong El Nino (warming of the equatorial Pacific) that is already underway. However, I’m convinced that the ENSO - whether an El Nino or La Nina - has less predictable results during the last 10-12 years largely due to the unusually warm ocean temps. worldwide. In any case... for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. is for equal chances of below vs. above avg. temps. with above avg. rainfall. El Nino’s in the past have at times helped produce winter time severe weather across Florida include tornado outbreaks due to what is usually an active subtropical jet stream.

Sea surface temps. clearly show the strong El Nino off the coast of S. America extending west for thousands of miles. Note the lack of ‘blue’ - cooler than avg. ocean temps. This may offset “normal” El Nino patterns.

‘Tis the season for the first freeze of the season across much of the Northern & Central U.S. We still have a ways to go locally. The avg. first freeze ranges mid Nov. across inland SE Ga. to early to mid Dec. for inland NE Fl.... & at least mid to late Dec. closer to the coast.

I was honored to be one of 5 judges for the first annual Jacksonville University Climate Innovation Challenge Tue., Oct. 24th.

Andy Bruck won with “Climate Crisis Poetry Contest” designed for Duval Public Schools. 2nd place went Green-Lining-Jax to grow an environmental & climate academy. 3rd place went to Clifford Miller & his idea of gardens within city limits.

J-U plans to make the Climate Innovation Challenge an annual event designed to simulate & support creative ways to address and solve climate-related challenges & improve the local environment.