A busy Labor Day weekend for travel predicted while gas prices remain high

Aug. 31—This Labor Day weekend will be busier than usual for travel even with gas prices remaining near the record high for the holiday, industry analysts say.

A lot of Americans will head out of town over the weekend, AAA said, basing that prediction on booking data for flights, hotels, rental cars and cruises.

Domestic bookings are up 4% from last year, and international bookings are up 44%, AAA said.

While gas prices are lower than last Labor Day weekend and have dropped slightly this week, the Berks County average for a gallon of regular unleaded gas on Thursday was still $3.86, slightly above the national average of $3.83, AAA said.

The average across Pennsylvania was $3.88, while in Montgomery, Chester and Delaware counties it was $3.89, Lehigh County was at $3.78, and Schuylkill County was at $3.83.

The state average a month ago was $3.86, and a year ago it was $4.11, the highest ever recorded for the holiday.

Gas prices spiked this summer because supplies were tight, with Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting production and driving up oil costs, according to GasBuddy.

Record temperatures in the South also caused refinery disruptions, contributing to a nearly 35-cent jump. While gas prices have started to ease as the summer winds down, hurricane season will remain a threat to prices for the next few weeks, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

On the positive side, on Sept. 16 gas stations will be allowed to start their transition from summer to winter blend gasoline, which is less expensive, he said.

"If we can escape further unexpected oil production cuts and outages due to hurricanes, we may avoid an unexpected surge in gas prices, with the downturn accelerating as we get into late September and stations transition back to cheaper gasoline," he said in a blog post this week. "We could see a national average of $3.25 a gallon by the end of the year if all goes well."

AAA also warned that higher gas demand and volatile oil prices, particularly during an active hurricane season, could limit how much lower prices descend in the weeks ahead.

"Although the national average did a U-turn this week, the road ahead could lead to higher prices," AAA spokesman Andrew Gross wrote in a recent blog. "Ongoing concerns regarding potential storm activity could hinder falling pump prices this fall."

The federal Energy Information Administration's latest forecast, which was released Aug. 8, predicts the average cost per gallon of regular unleaded nationally will drop to $3.58 in November, $3.49 in December, $3.39 in January and $3.37 in February, before rising to $3.60 in June.

The EIA also said that thanks to improved well-level productivity and higher oil prices, U.S. crude oil production should reach record levels in 2023 and 2024.

Travel plans

As far as the holiday, most Labor Day travelers were expected to leave on Thursday or Friday before Labor Day to take advantage of the long weekend, making those days the busiest on the roads and in airports, AAA said.

Booking data shows Vancouver, Rome, London, Dublin and Paris are the top five international destinations this weekend.

The top five domestic destinations are Seattle, Orlando, Anchorage, New York and Las Vegas.

The Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission expects its roads to be busier than during last year's Labor Day weekend, projecting more than 2.7 million people will be on the turnpike from Thursday to Monday, a 2.5% increase over 2022.

It predicts that Friday will will be the busiest day with 720,000 vehicles, and that Saturday will have 550,000, Sunday will have 330,000, and Monday will have 480,000.

Last year, state police Troop T, which patrols the turnpike, reported a 40% increase in crashes over the holiday weekend compared to the year before, officials said.

State police and the turnpike will have patrols and additional safety and maintenance teams throughout the system to help travelers get safely to their destination by responding to those in need of assistance, and taking action against illegal or unsafe behaviors, officials said.

From 3 p.m. on Thursday to 11 p.m. Monday, all scheduled turnpike construction projects will be suspended, and all lanes will be open to accommodate an increase in traffic.

Weather

Weather shouldn't impact travel plans in the region over the holiday.

AccuWeather forecasts a sunny high of 78 on Friday and 84 on Saturday.

Forecasters say the heat and humidity begin to return Sunday with mostly sunny skies and a high of 92, followed by a high of 95 on Monday.

The temperature is expected to remain in the 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs of 94 and 99, respectively.

There is little chance of rain during the period.