‘Have his cake and eat it too:’ Mexican president's leverage over Biden stunts progress on migration, drugs

WASHINGTON – Nearly a month after Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador snubbed President Joe Biden by skipping out on an annual meeting of countries across the Americas, AMLO — as he is nicknamed — met with the president at the White House Tuesday.

The meeting resulted in announcements to improve cooperation around trade and border security with America's No. 2 trading partner. Whether or not these measures are successful — or get implemented at all — is another question entirely, former diplomats say.

Biden and López Obrador’s meeting comes as the two countries are facing rising tensions on migration, illegal fentanyl, inflation, energy and climate change. With the upcoming midterm election — and 2024 when both the presidents are up for reelection — López Obrador’s leverage over the United States will likely limit progress between the two countries on multiple key issues.

“López Obrador unfortunately has realized that he's got a great deal of leverage, because of how important the issue of migration is for the United States administration at this stage,” said Arturo Sarukhán, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico. “In many ways, López Obrador feels that he can have his cake and eat it too.”

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Biden needs López Obrador to serve as a buffer on migration, as Mexicans now make up the largest group of people apprehended at the southern border – reversing a decade-long decline. There's also the issue of needing help to stifle the growing fentanyl trade from Mexico amid record overdose rates in the United States.

“It’s an awkward relationship. It’s based on extortion on the Mexican side and forbearance on the U.S. side,” said Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China.

Guajardo said “López Obrador knows very well that Republicans will put President Biden against the ropes. So he is using Republican pressure against Biden to extort Biden by containing immigrants on the southern border of Mexico.”

Guajardo added: “[López Obrador] overplays his hand” on migration, while “President Biden is a little more acquiescent than he needs to be.”

A cordial detente

The meeting between Biden and López Obrador comes a month after the Mexican president slighted the U.S. by skipping out on the Ninth Summit of the Americas, which was held in the United States for the first time since its inception in 1994.

The United States refused to invite Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela to the summit, citing their autocratic governments. López Obrador said that was the reason he decided to not attend the summit in person and sent his foreign minister in his place.

The snub rippled across the region and enabled other key leaders, such as the presidents of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador to decline in attending the event. Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, known as the Northern Triangle region, are key partners the U.S. needs to collaborate with to help stem migration from the area.

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While some see López Obrador’s meeting at the White House as a sign of U.S. appeasement, others say it's a sign of good will. It's the second in-person meeting between the two heads of state.

“If you're a neighbor, if you agree on things, you get together to sort them out. If you don't agree on something, you get together to discuss where you see eye to eye and work where you do not. What you can really not afford, is not to meet and not to discuss,” said Antonio Ortiz-Mena, former head of economic affairs at the U.S. Embassy of Mexico and now a senior vice president of Albright Stonebridge Group, a Washington-based consultingfirm.

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Unlike his predecessor, Biden has struggled to make headway with López Obrador on migration, an issue that has plagued the majority of American presidents in modern times.

In May, Customs and Border Protections encountered 239,416 people at the United States’ southern border.

But former President Donald Trump was able to get López Obrador to help mitigate migration by threatening Mexico with tariffs. In exchange, the U.S. did not pressureLópez Obrador on issues such as corruption.

A self-proclaimed left-leaning populist with a penchant for austerity and social conservatism, López Obrador improbably got along with Trump – often insisting that Trump “respected” Mexico, despiteTrump threatening Mexico with a trade war.  Analysts say López Obrador and Biden haven’t hit it off in the same way.

“It’s no secret there’s no personal affinity between the two of them. Their worldviews are extremely different,” said Brenda Estefan, a Mexican foreign policy analyst. “The relationship is cold, but pragmatic," she said, adding, "(It) has remained relatively functional due to the importance of the relationship" for both sides.

Trump also steered clear of domestic issues in Mexico, such as corruption and human rights, and didn’t prioritize issues like climate change, said Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue.

“The Biden administration has a much broader agenda that goes beyond migration and trade, and deals with some of these other issues,” Shifter noted. “That makes Lopez Obrador extremely uncomfortable.”

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Shifter added that the Biden administration's emphasis on democracy and human rights, not just in the United States but across the world, conflicts with López Obrador’s explicit nationalistic view.

“That's something that's very contrary to López Obrador’s thinking,” Shifter said. “That's a recipe for some friction and that's caused some friction.”

Earl Wayne, a former ambassador to Mexico and public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, said that while pressure between the two countries may seem high, López Obrador knows he needs the United States to help with key issues in Mexico, such as economic recovery.

For example, Wayne noted about 80% of Mexico’s exports are to the United States. He said with that and remittances, Mexico’s economy was able to bounce back from a pandemic recession.

“[López Obrador] understands that even if he doesn't agree on everything, he knows he needs to cooperate with the United States. It's very important for him,” Wayne said. “And similarly, we need them collaborating with us if we're going to get a hold of some of these very serious problems.”

Is the US top diplomat’s strategy working?

U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar has come under scrutiny for his cozy relationship with the Mexican president, at times contradicting Biden's policies.

For example, Salazar recently questioned the validity of the 2006 presidential election in Mexico, even though the U.S. had said there was no fraud in that contest, according to the New York Times. Despite aligning with López Obrador on some policies, the relationship between the United States and Mexico hasn’t gotten better.

Some former diplomats say it is too soon to tell whether Salazar’s approach to Mexico is working.

“The scene is set for making some significant progress, but we need to see that significant progress,” Wayne said.

Sarukhán said that having a constructive relationship with the president of Mexico is a “key component of your job as an ambassador.”

“The proof in the pudding is going to be whether that type of engagement and relationship moves the needle on those critical issues which are important to the bilateral relationship,” Sarukhán said.

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Sarukhán said the test of whether the relationship is working will come on the energy front, Mexico's ability to clamp down on fentanyl trafficking andon whether Mexico fully complies with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a free-trade pact.

“The jury's still out on that. I think we still have to see how all of this plays out,” he said.

Salazar has "gone all in with AMLO and that's a risky bet," Guajardo, the former Mexican ambassador said, referring to López Obrador by his initials.

José María Lujambio, a partner at Cacheaux, Cavazos & Newton in Austin, representing U.S. clean energy companies involved in legal action in Mexico, said, “Ambassador Salazar does not fully understand Mexico’s energy sector and seems satisfied with what President López Obrador tells him.”

He added, “(Salazar) keeps visiting the National Palace, but he has not helped resolving legal disputes”.

López Obrador came to Salazar’s defense after the New York Times story was published, calling Salazar’s critics "reactionary conservatives.”

However, some experts believe that it’s time for Biden to consider appointing a new ambassador.

Tony Payan, director of the Center for the United States and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said that while Salazar is a good politician, he isn’t a very good diplomat. Payan said he believes that Salazar doesn’t have an understanding of how Mexican politics works and takes what López Obrador says at face value.

Because of that, Payan noted that it may be time for Biden to bring in a new ambassador.

“That's not going to change ...Mr. Salazar is a year and a half into it. If he's not learned by now, I don't think he will,” Payan said.

In the end, many believe the meeting between Biden and López Obrador won’t move their relationship forward.

“There's no question that López Obrador is nostalgic for Donald Trump,” Shifter said.

Agren reported from Mexico City. Reach Morin at Twitter @RebeccaMorin_ and Agren at @el_reportero.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Immigration: Biden meets with AMLO as Mexico’s leverage over US grows