California Assembly, Senate Democrats turned primary races into fight over party’s future

California interest groups bet big on Sacramento Assembly candidate Maggy Krell.

Now, it looks like the nearly $1 million they spent on the Democratic deputy attorney general will pay off. On Tuesday night, early primary election results showed Krell with a sizable lead in the 6th District race to succeed longtime Assemblyman Kevin McCarty.

Interest groups spent almost $2 million promoting and opposing Democratic candidates in the blue district. They paid no attention to the two Republicans, even though low turnout and vote-splitting may give one of them a chance to advance to November from the top-two primary.

The groups appeared more concerned about picking the Democrat who will advance to the next round and ultimately represent their priorities at the Capitol.

Independent expenditure committees spent big in three wide-open Northern California races without incumbents. Business, labor and other interests supported and opposed Democrats on different ends of the party’s spectrum.

Democrats will likely succeed McCarty, Sen. Susan Talamantes Eggman in Stockton’s 5th Senate District and Sen. Bill Dodd in Napa’s 3rd Senate District.

That turned the state’s top-two primary races — and some general elections — into “a proxy battle within the Democratic Party,” said Christian Grose, USC professor of political science and public policy. This model allows the two majority vote-getters to advance to the general election, regardless of party.

In a low-turnout primary that seemed to skew older and more conservative, that may also allow a Republican to make it into the November election to compete with a Democrat.

“I do think the top-two makes it easier for these different wings of the Democratic Party to fight it out than you would see in a closed primary,” Grose said. “Because in the closed primary, I think you end up just getting your usual probably left Democrat, while in the top-two primary, you really could end up with a liberal, a progressive, a moderate, kind of depending on who ends up making it to the general.”

Independent expenditure battles

This Democrat-on-Democrat fighting is especially visible when it comes to independent expenditure committee spending.

Committees cannot coordinate or communicate with candidates and their campaigns. However, independent expenditures can sway the outcome of races in major ways, especially in elections with candidates who do not already have significant name recognition.

Various committees had spent more than $8.5 million on the Sacramento, Stockton and Napa legislative elections as of Tuesday, according to state campaign finance filings.

In the Stockton and Napa Senate races, independent expenditures supported and opposed candidates mostly along moderate and progressive lines. A collection of moderate business interest groups spent more than $850,000 backing Stockton Assemblyman Carlos Villapudua. He was originally prepared to run for another term in the Assembly, while his wife, Edith Villapudua, ran for Senate.

But the two ultimately swapped, with Carlos running for Eggman’s old seat and Edith competing to succeed her husband.

Many of the same groups supporting Villapudua spent nearly $870,000 opposing his competitor, former U.S. Rep. Jerry McNerney. Labor unions, environmental groups and consumer attorneys — which typically back more progressive candidates — spent more than $470,000 supporting McNerney and more than $650,000 attacking Villapudua.

Independent expenditures did not spend any money supporting or opposing Republican James Shoemaker.

The Napa Senate and Sacramento Assembly races had multiple Democrats, splitting independent expenditure spending among a handful of candidates.

Business groups and charter schools spent more than $1.4 million backing former West Sacramento Mayor Christopher Cabaldon, construction and labor union groups backed Jackie Elward with more than $273,000 and firefighters and teachers’ unions backed Rozzana Verder-Aliga with nearly $150,000.

In the Sacramento Assembly race, independent expenditures spent $995,169 backing Krell. She did not have any groups opposing her, and she drew support from business interests, law enforcement and a labor union. DaVita, a dialysis clinic chain, spent more than $450,000 promoting Krell.

Former ACLU California executive director Carlos Marquez got almost $500,000 in support, nearly all from charter school groups.

Republicans sneak into general election

In spite of all the money interest groups spent on Democrats, early results indicated some Republican candidates may move on to November.

In the Sacramento Assembly race, Republicans Nikki Ellis and Preston Romero were vying for second place. Cabaldon had a strong lead in the Napa Senate race, followed in second by Republican Thom Bogue.

In the Stockton Senate race, Republican Shoemaker led the field, with McNerney in second place.

Low turnout and a more conservative primary electorate likely helped the Republicans along.

Only about 19% of California voters had returned their ballots as of Tuesday night, according to Political Data Inc.’s ballot tracker. About 25% of Republicans had cast their votes, compared to 20% of Democrats. The voters also skewed older, with 40% of those 65 and older returning their ballots, compared to just 6% of those ages 18 to 34.

Even so, a Democrat will likely win all three general election contests in November. If the current results hold, a small percentage of voters will end up picking the candidate who represents them in Sacramento.

At her election night party in midtown, Krell was feeling “really good” as she hugged and took photos with supporters and campaign workers.

When asked what what she thinks of all the interest group spending in her race, Krell said she was glad it was all positive, but she preferred to focus on her campaign volunteers.

“I just want to get in,” she said, when asked about her ideal general election scenario. “I just want a chance to compete in November.”