California Democrats face tough year at the Capitol. What to watch as lawmakers return to work

California lawmakers face all sorts of political brushfires as they return to work Wednesday — the budget shortfall is huge, crime is on the minds of constituents, and voters start casting ballots in a month.

Assembly members and senators come back to a $68 billion budget gap while trying to look as attractive as possible ahead of the March 5 primary election. Voters will start receiving their mail-in ballots in about a month.

Democrats now have huge majorities in the Legislature. But they’re going to have to endure Republican attacks around crime, drugs and cost of living issues. And Gov. Gavin Newsom’s priorities, and what to many seems a shifting political philosophy, will undergird everything.

Here are five story lines that will affect lawmakers arriving at the Capitol for another year.

An enormous budget gap

The budget will be top of mind for lawmakers, who will be involved in fixing a growing budget problem caused by a late-2023 tax revenue shortfall.

Assembly and Senate budget leaders in December told The Sacramento Bee “everything is on the table” to address the lack of funds, including spending cuts and dipping into reserves.

Newsom will unveil his budget proposal by Jan. 10. After that, his administration will begin negotiating a financial plan with Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, D-Hollister, and Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, D-San Diego.

In addition to developing budget solutions, lawmakers must tailor their bills and political expectations to fit a leaner year. Republicans have already been pushing belt-tightening, urging Democrats to pull back on priorities such as expanding Medi-Cal and providing reparations for Black descendants of slaves.

But Democrats are hoping to avoid cutting funds for social services and schools.

The 2024 election

Many lawmakers, especially Assembly members, will be on the 2024 ballot.

That means every vote and public statement will be subject to a special amount of scrutiny as opponents hunt for campaign ad material. Even 2023 decisions could pop up as voters begin to return ballots.

Election concerns likely factored into Democrats’ decision to back a bill from Sen. Shannon Grove, R-Bakersfield, adding child sex trafficking to the state’s “three strikes” list. The controversial policy increases prison sentences for those repeatedly convicted of felonies.

The need to attract Republicans in purple districts likely motivated two Central Valley Democrats, Marie Alvarado-Gil of Jackson and Jasmeet Bains of Delano, to vote against a Newsom plan last year to hold oil companies accountable for high gasoline prices.

A handful of longtime lawmakers are also in their last year in the Legislature as they term out or pursue local or national offices, leaving their seats open.

In Sacramento, Assemblyman Kevin McCarty is running for mayor, creating a competitive race to represent the city in the Capitol.

Assembly and Senate leadership shakeups

Both legislative bodies will have new leaders for most of the year. That brings a shift in priorities and committee assignments, which could spark fresh policy-making approaches.

Rivas took charge of the Assembly on June 30, after a bitter and extended leadership battle with outgoing Speaker Anthony Rendon, D-Lakewood. But he began his tenure late in the legislative year, after budget negotiations and before a month-long summer recess.

January will mark the true start of his speakership, although he began making significant leadership and committee chair changes in November. Perhaps most significantly, the powerful Assembly Appropriations and Budget committees will get new chairs for the first time in years.

In the Senate, Sen. Mike McGuire, D-Healdsburg, will succeed termed-out Pro Tem Atkins on Feb. 5 after a quick and amicable leadership transition. McGuire will have more involvement in the budget and legislative priority-setting than Rivas initially did, but it remains to be seen whether he plans to make major Senate-side committee changes.

GOP pressure on crime and drugs

Republicans have little power in a Legislature dominated by a Democratic supermajority, but GOP lawmakers managed to exert some influence over crime and drug policy in 2023.

In the spring, former Assembly Public Safety Committee Chair Reggie Jones-Sawyer, D-Los Angeles, ended up holding a special hearing for fentanyl-related legislation after Republicans publicly pressured him.

Bills to increase penalties for drug-related crimes did not get out of the committee, but the hearing and appearances from families who had lost loved ones to fentanyl overdoses were notable.

The success of Grove’s child sex trafficking bill also stirred controversy in the Capitol, and it could spur similar bills adding new three-strikes crimes.

This year, Newsom already announced he plans to push legislation to curb xylazine trafficking and use, an indication he sees the importance of being proactive on the issue. Xylazine is a strong sedative often mixed with fentanyl.

Rivas’ creation of an Assembly Select Committee on Retail Theft further shows Democrats’ desire to address crime before Republicans use it to hit them.

Newsom’s shifting politics and priorities

Newsom in 2023 made it crystal-clear that he intends to seek a place on the national political stage, which appeared to affect his political decision-making and will continue to do so moving forward.

He created a political action committee to support Democratic causes, took a tour of Republican states and debated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on national television. Newsom continues to deny he is seeking the presidency in 2024, but his actions suggest a future bid.

This may have motivated the governor to take a more cautious approach when it came to bill-signings. In September, he vetoed a bill that would have required judges to take parents’ acceptance of their children’s gender identities into consideration when negotiating custody arrangements.

He also declined to sign bills that would have given unemployment pay to striking workers and workplace protections to domestic employees.

Newsom likes to remind reporters he leaves office in about three years. This, and his future ambitions, will inevitably be on his mind as he enters 2024.