California GOP can’t win U.S. Senate race, but its voters could still make a difference | Opinion
In deep blue California, the next U.S. senator is almost certain to be a Democrat — most likely one of the three top candidates in the race: Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland, Rep. Katie Porter of Orange County, or Rep. Adam Schiff of Los Angeles County.
What’s more, there’s a good chance a Republican won’t even make it past the primary; there could very well be two Democrats battling it out in the 2024 general election to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
For that, you can thank — or blame — Abel Maldonado, a former GOP lawmaker and lieutenant governor who almost single-handedly changed the way we do elections in California.
Maldonado was serving in the state Senate in 2009 when he struck a deal: He agreed to vote with Democrats to pass a controversial budget bill, but in return, he wanted support for switching up the way primary elections are conducted.
It worked; Democrats agreed to put a measure on the ballot asking voters whether they wanted a top-two, open primary for state offices — meaning all candidates would appear on the ballot, regardless of party affiliation, and the top two would advance to the general election.
The measure passed by 8 percentage points in 2010, radically changing the way California runs primary elections for many offices.
As a result, there have been times when Republicans have been shut out of a spot on the November ballot in major races. It happened in U.S. Senate races in 2016 and 2018 when two Democrats made it to the general elections. It could happen again in 2024.
Why did Maldonado do it?
The way Maldonado sees it, a tight race between the two top vote-getters makes more sense than a meaningless election between a Democrat and a Republican who has no chance of winning, given California’s political demographics. According to the most recent report from California’s secretary of state, 47% of voters are Democrats and 24% are Republican.
With a top-two primary, if two Democrats make it to November, Republicans can choose the candidate they find more palatable, who is almost certainly the more moderate.
By Maldonado’s reasoning, that would give GOP voters a voice in the outcome, and act as an incentive for centrist candidates to run on platforms that will appeal to all, or at least most, voters.
“The goal was to allow lawmakers to represent the people and not work for a political party,” Maldonado said in a recent interview. “The idea when I did the open primary was to have someone who was reasonable, pragmatic and open-minded and deliver for the people, not for the party.”
It all makes sense, at least in theory.
In reality, though, Republicans have another option: Vote for neither candidate. In other words, surrender.
Could a Republican make the top two?
With so many Democrats in the race, it’s possible the vote could be split to such a degree that a Republican could slip in. Except there are multiple Republicans in the race as well, and none is established enough to attract big donors.
Eric Early, an attorney and Donald Trump stalwart who ran unsuccessfully for Congress and state attorney general, had an impressive showing in one of the early polls. A Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley poll released in June showed Early on top, with 18% approval among likely voters. Porter was next with 17%, followed by Schiff at 14% and Lee at 9%.
A majority of voters — 42% — were either undecided or planned to vote for someone else.
Other polls that included more candidates weren’t so kind to Early. In an Emerson College poll, he was supported by 3%. Another Republican candidate, Coast Guard veteran James P. Bradley, outpolled him with 4%.
Schiff led that poll with 15%, followed by Porter, 14% and Lee, 6%.
Most of those polled — again, 42% — were undecided.
That speaks to how early it is in the election cycle. Also, while they may be well-known among news junkies, the top three Democratic candidates don’t necessarily have a lot of name recognition outside of their districts, making it incumbent on them to make a mark over the coming months.
“Those are three very partisan Democrats. They’re going to have a hell of a primary,” Maldonado predicted.
As for the Republican candidates, “it’s going to be an uphill battle,” he said.
