How California’s most evenly divided county found its political balance on Election Day

Butte County’s early election results are enough to give someone partisan whiplash.

The local Republican congressman, Doug LaMalfa, is almost certain to win re-election in his vast district, which stretches from the Oregon border to Placer County. But he’ll get fewer votes in Butte County, where his family has deep roots, than his Democratic opponent for the second election in a row.

Meanwhile, the majority of college-town progressives in Chico, Butte County’s largest city, were ousted and replaced by conservatives.

The county, which voted for Republican Donald Trump in 2016, voted for Democrat Joe Biden this election. Biden received 50.6% of the vote, and Trump garnered 46.9%.

At the same time, two local Republicans running for the state Legislature appear to have won the county with no problem.

If California ever became its own nation, this Northern California county of rice farms, orchards and forests prone to rampaging wildfires — with a liberal-leaning college town of about 100,000 people — would be the closest thing to a swing state.

When it comes to Republicans and Democrats, Butte, population 219,000, is the most evenly balanced county in California.

As of October, 35.7% of the county’s voters were registered Democrat and 35.8% were registered Republican, according to the California Secretary of State. The remaining 28.5% were registered with a third-party or declined to state a party preference.

Compare that to California at large where 46% of voters are Democrats and just 24% are Republicans. That made for some wild local races this year in a part of the state known for being reliably Republican.

In practice, Butte County has tilted right in presidential elections. It went for the Republican candidate in 10 of the prior 12 presidential elections, not including 2020.

If Biden’s vote percentages hold, he will earn a higher proportion of Butte County votes than any Democrat running for president in at least 50 years.

That local “blue wave” may have helped Democrat Audrey Denney, a former Chico State agricultural instructor, capture more votes in Butte County than LaMalfa for the second election in a row.

Denney’s dominance in Butte County came despite LaMalfa being a well-known figure there. LaMalfa’s family has a large rice farm outside of Oroville, the county seat. Those driving from Butte to Sacramento on Highway 99 pass signs labeling it the Milton LaMalfa Memorial Highway, named for his father.

Before being elected to Congress in 2012, LaMalfa was the local state assemblyman and senator.

David Little, the former editor of the Chico Enterprise-Record, said Denney’s strong showings are the first time in decades that a Republican congressional candidate faced a serious challenger in Butte.

Denney out-fundraised LaMalfa this election cycle, by more than $1 million.

“For years, the local Democrats never bothered to run really strong candidates, because they knew it was a lost cause,” Little said. “Audrey Denney was an exception. She was a really strong candidate. And I think people in Butte County know her. And that’s why Butte County flipped that way, because there finally was a viable alternative to a Republican who’s been here forever.”

But that strong showing for Denney and for Biden didn’t translate out to victories in Butte for relatively unknown Democrats running against Republicans James Gallagher and Megan Dahle in local state Assembly races. (Butte is split into two Assembly districts).

Dahle, a first-term assemblywoman married to State Sen. Brian Dahle, R-Bieber, took 59% of the vote in Butte against Democrat Elizabeth Betancourt. Gallagher, an incumbent assemblyman, has 55.3% of Butte’s votes over challenger James Henson, the Democrat. Dahle and Gallagher are on track to take their districts.

Chico’s council flips conservative

Perhaps the most remarkable Butte County race was for control of the city council in Chico, home to Chico State University.

The city is on track to see its progressive city council flip to a potential 5-2 supermajority of conservatives if current vote tallies hold.

One of the conservative candidates about to take office is Kami Denlay, a stay-at-home mom, who appears to have easily beaten Mayor Ann Schwab.

Denlay said the race had little to do with Republican vs. Democrat politics, but more to do with the fact that locals were fed up at seeing Bidwell Park, one of the largest municipal parks in the country and the crown jewel of Chico, overrun with homeless camps and garbage. Some residents also objected to the city’s controversial needle exchange program.

“I think that during campaigning, we all kind of found that the issues that Chico is facing right now, they’re not partisan issues,” Denlay said. “They’re just general quality of life issues. The things that are happening in our community, all parties were frustrated with it.”

Schwab didn’t return an emailed message.

Bob Mulholland, a Chico resident and longtime state Democratic Party strategist, said he suspects COVID-19 keeping Chico State students away from the city likely played a role in the council flipping conservative, and it might have led to a smaller showing for Democrats in state and federal races.

Chico State has suspended face-to-face instruction for most students since March. Many students are taking courses online, far away from campus.

He said that on the last day of registration for the 2008 election, Democrats registered 606 voters on the Chico State campus. This year, Democrats registered zero, he said.

There is some evidence that the pandemic may be influencing voter registration numbers, particularly at Chico State, a Sacramento Bee analysis shows.

Most counties saw a sharp rise in voter registration among young adults from 2016 through 2020 — but not Butte County.

About 17,575 Butte County registered voters were between 18 and 25 in October 2020, almost exactly the same number registered in October 2016.

Statewide, the number of registered voters in that age range increased by 15 percent during the same periods.

Fires influencing politics

Recent wildfires also have changed the political landscape of Butte County and in Chico. This summer, hundreds of homes burned in the Butte County community of Berry Creek. Two years earlier, more than 10,000 homes burned in the Butte County town of Paradise, a longtime Republican stronghold.

Many people moved rather than rebuild, some to neighboring cities like Chico, others completely out of the area. Those movement patterns are reflected in the number of registered voters in Paradise, which saw registered voters drop by about 12,400 people, or 71%, from 2016 to 2020, state data show.

The town lost a higher proportion of Democratic voters than Republicans. There are now almost two Republicans for every Democrat in Paradise.

On the other hand, Democrats added more voters than Republicans in Chico from 2016 through 2020, some of them likely from Paradise.

Around 44% of Chico voters are registered as Democrats, while 27% are Republicans.

But Little, the former newspaper editor, said Chico’s city council flips every few years so it shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise, regardless of any demographic shifts.

“In my mind,” he said, “Chico’s unpredictability is very predictable.”