California’s population declined for the first time ever last year. Here’s why
For the first time in state history, California’s population declined in 2020.
The milestone followed a deadly pandemic, a long-term decline in births and former President Donald Trump’s immigration policies that drove away potential newcomers, according to the California Department of Finance.
That combination contributed to a population decline of 182,083 residents, according to new data released by the state on Friday. That marks a .46% decline in the state’s population, keeping it under 40 million residents.
Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, said California’s high cost of living makes the state’s population growth vulnerable to a shock like a pandemic.
“We’re not really growing in the first place,” he said. “The housing is really expensive here. It means that a lot of people end up moving out of the state because they can’t afford to live here ... It’s a sign of some longer-term issues for California.”
The new data comes after the U.S. Census Bureau announced last month that California would lose a congressional seat for the first time in the state’s 170-year history due to its slower population growth. As a result, the state is expected to send 52 members of Congress to the House of Representatives in 2022 instead of 53.
The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to 51,000 deaths in California last year, a 19% surge in average death rates over the past three years, according to the data. Fifty-one of the state’s 58 counties saw rates of “excess deaths.”
Strict immigration policies under the Trump administration like the suspension of immigration and foreign worker visas last year also contributed to the reduction. Furthermore, international COVID-19 restrictions led to the decline of 53,000 international students in the state.
Additionally, another long-term trend of Californians moving out of the state continued. Usually, foreign immigration offsets that kind of population decline, according to the Department of Finance, but not last year.
Natalie Holmes, a research fellow at the California Policy Lab, said the number of people leaving the state has increased steadily in recent years, but she wouldn’t categorize it as a “mass exodus.”
“Statewide we didn’t see this big uptick in people leaving the state because of the pandemic,” she said.
A survey released by the Public Policy Institute of California in March found that 43% of Californians say the state’s housing costs are making them “seriously consider moving,” of which 33% said they would consider moving to another state.
California’s median home price in March stood at $758,990, a new record. For the first time since 2008, the state built over 100,000 new housing units in 2020, totaling 103,073, according to the state data.
“What we’ve seen in the past decade, is that the California Dream isn’t really a reality for a lot of people. I think there’s been this idea, especially in the 20th century and during the Gold Rush that if you could get to California and worked hard enough, you’d get rich,” said Camille Suarez, an assistant professor of California history at California State University, Los Angeles.
Today, because of the cost of real estate, “it’s just not a viable option for a lot of people,” Suarez said.
The new data shows some parts of the state contradicted the overall trends and gained residents. San Benito, Placer, San Joaquin and Yuba counties each saw a population growth of over 1%.
Coastal and northern counties in California experienced population declines, but growth “remains strong” in the Sacramento Valley, the Central Valley and the Inland Empire, according to the data.
Los Angeles County’s population dropped by .9% last year, continuing a three-year downward slope.
State officials don’t expect the statewide downward trend to continue, Department of Finance spokesman H.D. Palmer said.
As COVID-19 related deaths wane and the Biden administration reverses Trump-era immigration policies, state officials estimate that the state will see a “slight annual positive growth” this year. Those figures won’t be released until May 2022.
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