‘Snow drought’ possible as California sees levels ‘far below normal’ in Tahoe region

California’s water season got off to an unfavorable start, with little help from the swath of warmer-than-normal storms beating down the western region.

The snowpack at Phillips Station, located west of Lake Tahoe, recorded 29 inches of snow on Tuesday morning during a monthly snow survey by the California Department of Water Resources. That’s 58% of the average to date and about 41% of the average for April 1, department spokesperson Ryan Endean said in a briefing shortly after the survey.

The guideline is used to forecast the state’s water supply in the drier summer months.

Statewide, the average snow-water equivalent is 8.4 inches — 52% of the historical average for this year and 32% of the April average.

According to a news release from the state water department, the second manual survey of the season showed moderate improvement but conditions remain “far below normal.”

It’s possible we could see above average rain combined with below average snow, resulting in what’s called a “snow drought,” officials said at a briefing Tuesday.

Karla Nemeth, director of the California Department of Water Resources, said this year’s El Niño has produced lackluster conditions and “an even smaller snowpack,” but you never know what’s on the horizon.

“Californians must prepare for all possible conditions during the remaining months of the rainy season,” she wrote in the news release.

How does Sierra Nevada snowpack compare to last winter?

Last winter’s string of aggressive atmospheric river storms created the deepest snowpack recorded across the Sierra Nevada in at least 40 years.

Along with a historic snowpack, the 2022-2023 water year closed with above-normal precipitation, below-average temperatures and improved statewide reservoir storage. Lake Oroville, California’s second-largest reservoir, currently sits at 76% of average, the state water department stated in a news release.

The 2023-2024 water year, which began Oct. 1, started with drier weather patterns and a depleted snowpack.

This is a stark difference from the wet winter season that meteorologists had predicted earlier in the year

One year ago, according to a news release, the statewide snowpack was measured at 214% of the historical average for Feb. 1.

What is ARkStorm? No, a megaflood is not going to sink California this week

Could storm put California water year back on track?

Officials with the department of water resources showed moderate optimism that the state’s snowiest months — December through February — could put the water year back on track.

As of Tuesday, Tahoe-area ski resorts had seen snowfall totals ranging from 68 to 156 inches for this season.

According to the agency, January has been wet but warmer than usual, producing rain instead of snow at higher elevations.

“Even though this winter has provided below average precipitation, it can only take one storm to provide severe flooding in the right circumstances,” the state water department wrote in a news release.

What’s the weather forecast for Tahoe region?

An atmospheric river is creeping into California, signaling flooding concerns across the state.

The National Weather Service issued a winter storm watch this week, going into effect from Wednesday to Friday, for the Tahoe region.

Areas above 5,000 feet should brace for 1 to 2 feet of fresh snow. Higher mountain peaks could see 3 feet of accumulation. Snow levels are forecast to migrate downwards as the week progresses, to 3,500 feet on Friday.

Along with snow, winds between 50 and 60 mph are forecast to whip the area.

Sunday and Monday will bring another chance “at significant snowfall,” according to the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, located at Donner Pass.

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