California’s zero-emission vehicle sales are accelerating. Can the state meet its 2035 goal?

California’s foot is on the gas — or, rather, electricity — as the state works toward its goal of banning the sale of gas-powered cars by 2035.

Zero-emissions vehicle sales hit a new high last quarter, making up 25% of all cars sold statewide, according to the California Energy Commission. State incentives have shifted the demand for these cars into higher gear, and manufacturers can hardly keep up with the demand.

More than 125,000 zero-emissions vehicles, or ZEVs, were sold in California between between April 1 and June 30. At this rate, California’s 2023 ZEV purchases should exceed last year’s by nearly 30%.

In Sacramento County, 6,146 new zero-emissions vehicles have been sold this year so far. The largest EV charging station in the country, equipped with 120 chargers, is scheduled to open near Sacramento International Airport in 2025.

The most popular vehicle in the county and across the state was Tesla’s Model Y, according to the Energy Commission. The 7-seat car costs an estimated $38,240 after incentives, according to Electric For All. One in three ZEVs sold so far this year across the state have been Tesla’s Model Y.

Consumers have more zero-emissions options to choose from than ever. According to Veloz, an electric vehicle advocacy group, there are 95 “light-duty’”models available for California car shoppers. They range from $11,500 (after incentives) Chevrolet Bolt EV to a $573,956 Ferrari Spider.

The road to greener vehicles

Last August, the California Air Resource Board approved a rule banning the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. Since, they’ve added billions of dollars to incentive programs to encourage both buyers and manufacturers to make that goal a reality.

In Sacramento, for example, incentives can take a $26,500 Chevrolet Bolt down to $11,500. Incentives increase for people below certain thresholds. For example, for single filers with an annual income below $135,000, the California Clean Vehicle Rebate Project increases from $2,000 to $5,500.

The incentives aren’t only monetary. City of Sacramento parking lots have spaces with free EV charging, and EVs are allowed in High Occupancy Vehicle lanes on freeways throughout the state.

The allure of flying past traffic in the HOV lane is a big draw for customers, especially those from the Bay Area, said Alex Zamora, a sales and finance representative at Epic Chevrolet Cadillac in Sacramento. Zamora himself has driven an EV since 2018 because of the cost savings.

“As soon as vehicles arrive, they’re either pre-sold or sold within 24-48 hours,” Zamora said. “The manufacturers are pushing them out as fast as they can, but they still cannot meet demand.”

Manufacturers are getting help from the state to ramp up production of the vehicles. The California Energy Commission doles out grants of up to $100 million for manufacturers producing ZEV batteries. Manufacturers can also qualify for certain tax exemptions.

Though climate programs were hit by this year’s budget negotiations, the final agreement included $10.1 billion in funding for the ZEVs incentive programs — an increase from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s original $6.1 billion request for the programs.

Federal programs have spurred the uptake of ZEVs, too. The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law last summer, included a tax credit provision for buyers of new electric cars. Across the country, electric vehicle sales have tripled over the past two years, but still only comprise 8.5% of all vehicle sales, according to a report from J.D. Power, a consumer insight group.

Gas-powered cars will still dominate California roads for decades to come, said Gil Tal, director of the Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center at UC Davis.

“It’s a very slow process and the average lifespan of a car in California is about 14 years. So if today in California three out of four new cars are gas cars, they will be here for many, many years,” he said.

Furthermore, in California, ZEVs include plug-in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen cell-powered vehicles in addition to electric vehicles. Plug-in hybrids are electric for the first 50 or 60 miles, then run on gasoline.

Still, Tal said “California is in a very good place right now” in terms of reaching its 2035 goal.

Transportation is the largest contributing sector to California emissions

Roughly 38% of California’s GHG emissions come from transportation, the most from any single sector, according to the California Air Resources Board. That proportion is even higher in Sacramento County: 45%, according to Sacramento County’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory report from 2021.

Still, just because a car has no trail of exhaust doesn’t mean it’s completely green. Making electric vehicles generates more carbon than combustion engine cars, according to an analysis by Reuters.

The “break-even” point, when an EV driver has driven enough without gasoline to make up that difference, depends on how many miles a person drives, the size of the EV’s battery and the electricity source used to charge the car.

Tal said that for a driver traveling 10,000 miles a year, it could take three to four years to break even on emissions. As California’s electric grid is dominated by more renewable sources, he added, driving an electric car will only get greener.