Do Californians still support aid to Ukraine for war against Russia? What new polling says
Polling in California and nationally suggests large numbers of people are wary of a “forever war.”
And when the House returned Tuesday from its summer recess, it confronted an effort by hardline Republican conservatives to limit assistance to Ukraine. President Joe Biden wants an additional $24 billion in aid.
“I don’t think most Americans think about the war in Ukraine. They probably did for a brief moment when it started, and maybe when there is a lot of news generated from a major campaign or event,” said Wesley Hussey, professor of political science at California State University, Sacramento.
The current mood, he said, could be “the more traditional view of Americans emerging that are skeptical of international affairs and entanglements. But nothing specifically about Ukraine.”
That will make approving aid more difficult as the war continues because “skepticism about aiding Ukraine has been increasing, especially on the Republican right but also among progressive Democrats,” said Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, an nonpartisan research group.
Many House conservatives tried to put brakes on the aid in July. While the proposal to cut off aid lost overwhelmingly, seventy House members, all Republicans, voted for the plan. A separate bid to cut $300 million from Ukraine aid got 89 Republican votes. No Democrat voted for either proposal.
Of California’s 11 House Republicans, only Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Chico, supported the two measures. His office did not respond to a request for comment.
Biden’s request is part of an emergency spending package that also includes $16 billion for victims of last month’s Maui wildfires and Hurricane Idalia, which battered parts of Florida.
Biden and congressional leaders urgently want a vote this month.
But since the July vote to cut off the aid, polling has shown some caution about providing assistance without conditions attached.
A Berkeley-IGS California poll asked state voters late last month what position they would prefer the state’s U.S. Senate candidates should take action regarding the war.
A slight majority of likely voters, 53%, favored someone who “gives priority to helping Ukraine achieve victory over Russia, even if it means a longer war.”
But 30% said they preferred someone who supported bringing the war to an end, even if Ukraine had to give up some territory to Russia.
While Democrats are solidly behind a strong aid package, the poll noted that majorities of Republicans, strong conservatives and voters backing one of the three GOP Senate candidates in the poll, “would prefer a Senate candidate who gives greater priority to bringing an end to the war in Ukraine even if it means ceding some territory to Russia.”
The findings mirror national surveys that asked about Ukraine in differently worded questions.. Last month’s Quinnipiac University poll found that while 38% thought the U.S. is doing about the right amount to help Ukraine and 21% said not enough is being done. Another 34% said the U.S. is doing too much.
But, as Quinnipiac noted, “there are wide gaps by political party,” which was also evident in the Berkeley poll.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 Congress has approved four different aid packages totaling $113 billion. The current request would cover about 100 days, according to the Center on Strategic & International Studies.
These partisan schisms are driving the U.S. House debate that threatens further aid to Ukraine.
Turmoil in Congress
The House Freedom Caucus, a group of hardcore conservatives, issued a statement last month saying flatly “we will oppose any blank check for Ukraine” in an emergency bill. While the Senate strongly supports more aid, it’s unclear what House leaders will attempt.
Among California Republicans, Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, is a member of the House Appropriations Committee, which writes spending bills. His office would not respond to questions about his position.
Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, said after a ‘yes’ vote for aid last year that the Russian invasion is “primarily a European security issue and must not become an American security issue by engaging directly with Russia or by expanding NATO.”
He backed the aid because “If Russia can be defeated in its invasion, every other rogue nation around the world will think long and hard before launching similar attacks – starting with China, Iran and North Korea. In short, the world will become a much more stable place.”
McClintock thought the $40 billion being authorized at the time sent Russia a strong message that it cannot win the war.
His office did not respond this time to requests for comment.
Nor did Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin, whose website turns up nothing when searching for Ukraine.
California Democrats are solidly behind more aid.
Rep. Salud Carbajal, D-Santa Barbara, has been to Kyiv twice, once just before the invasion and again a year later.
“I have seen how the aid we have provided is making a difference. As another winter approaches in Ukraine, this is no time to lose our resolve,” said Carbajal, a member of the House Armed Services Committee.
After Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Florida, offered his proposal in July to stop the aid, Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove, D-Los Angeles, a House Foreign Affairs Committee member, opposed him.
“The United States is not fighting a war in Ukraine. We are giving Ukrainians the weapons they need to fight the war for themselves and defend their country from totalitarian invaders,” she told colleagues..
California’s three leading Senate candidates–Adam Schiff of Los Angeles, Katie Porter of Orange County and Barbara Lee of Oakland–have also been supporters of additional aid.
Lee said last year she would do “everything in my power” to support Ukraine. She’s the top Democrat on the appropriations panel’s state and foreign operations subcommittee.
Porter told the San Francisco Chronicle that while the aid is “a good investment for America and for the world,” she was wary of “blank checks to the Pentagon.”
