For Cameron, a campaign for more than governor: Who will lead KY Republicans?

The rural Ohio River community of Lewis County is one of the most Republican counties in Kentucky. It hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president in the last 36 cycles, since Samuel J. Tilden in 1876.

It’s also home to one of the more prominent Republicans in American politics in Fourth Congressional District Congressman Thomas Massie, who says Republicans there are still missing one thing: a leader in Frankfort.

To a Republican crowd gathered in a pew-style meeting hall on the third floor of the cavernous Lewis County courthouse, Massie stated that while state policymaking has been controlled by veto-proof legislative supermajorities in the statehouse, the party needed to elect GOP gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron.

“You may say ‘we’ve got super majorities and the Senate in Frankfort, and they can override Andy’s veto – which, thank goodness they have so many times – so why do we need the governor?’ Because we need a leader, which we don’t have a leader in Frankfort. We need somebody at the top. You can’t push a string up a hill, somebody’s got to pull it,” Massie said.

Republicans in Kentucky, as well as the official Republican Party of Kentucky (RPK), have not had a consistent single elected leader in Frankfort in recent history. Kentucky voters have never let a Republican governor hold the office for more than one term. In part because of that, de facto leader of the party for decades, per most Republicans, has been Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConell, R-KY.

Though he’s better known worldwide as one of the most important Senators in Washington history, McConnell has been deeply involved in party-building in Kentucky – RPK headquarters is named after him – since becoming the only statewide elected Republican in 1984. Since then, Republicans have gained control of most every political lever of power at the state level short of the governor’s chair. McConnell is now facing questions about his fitness for both his leadership post and Senate duties following two public freeze ups in front of cameras.

So Cameron is not only applying for the state’s top job. He’s seeking to lead a party that, now dominant in Frankfort, has its fair share of growing pains.

20 county parties have formally censured Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY, Factions within the ballooning 80-member House GOP caucus have begun to form, rural Republicans have regularly been outnumbered on issues related to public goods, and some of Cameron’s competition in his landslide primary win have turned their backs on him.

“At the end of the day, when there are no enemies left to fight you end up fighting yourselves. It’s natural. I’ve seen it happen in multiple states and it happened with the Democrats here for years,” Tres Watson, a Republican operative and former RPK spokesman said.

Is Cameron the one to get all the Republicans on the same page? He seems to think so.

“I hope that I’m a unifying presence. I think, based on the number that we came out of the primary, we’re well on the way to making sure that everybody comes into this tent,” Cameron said at an event in July.

Who’s with you?

Cameron’s appearance with Massie was one of many he’s done or planned with all five of Kentucky’s Republican congressman all over the Commonwealth.

It’s served as a show of unity in place of one that never happened.

Two weeks before Cameron’s primary win, RPK Chair Mac Brown wrote that the GOP would host a “unity event where we hope each gubernatorial candidate will attend and show their support” for the nominee. That event never occurred, and Cameron’s three top competitors in the race – who garnered about 45% of the primary vote, collectively – have either fallen publicly silent on the general election race or outright turned their backs.

Though he gave his full support to Cameron in the immediate aftermath of his second-place finish Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles has punted on offering a full-throated public endorsement in two major political speeches since then. It is widely rumored that Quarles, who holds a doctorate in higher education, is seeking the presidency at the Kentucky Community and Technical College System (KCTCS). Strong partisanship is likely to be discouraged in the hiring process, which is overseen by a board populated with appointees of both political stripes. Quarles did not return a request for comment on the matter.

Kelly Craft, meanwhile, has been largely absent from Kentucky politics after her third-place finish in the GOP gubernatorial primary – even when she’s technically making moves. She and her husband, GOP megadonor and coal entrepreneur Joe Craft, were not present when they joined in on a $10 million charity bid to buy the ham at this year’s Kentucky Farm Bureau Country Ham Breakfast.

Shortly after the loss, Craft posted on social media that supporters should “stay tuned” for her next move, but has not yet signaled what that next move may be. In her concession speech, she told her supporters to “come together” to beat Beshear, but she also decried the attacks on her during the primary – many of which were proffered by a pro-Cameron PAC. Craft did not respond to a recent question on what she thinks about the race and whether or not she’ll support Cameron.

Fourth-place finisher Eric Deters was previously all in for Cameron, but has changed tune in recent weeks. In a video explaining why his far-right event Freedom Fest was canceled – Cameron previously said he was excited to go, but backed out after pressure from Massie, who Deters is challenging next year – Deters dropped that he’s not longer backing Cameron.

“Just because I’m a Republican doesn’t mean I have to support Daniel Cameron. I’m not going to support, to vote for, Beshear, but I’m not going to support Cameron. I’m done,” Deters said.

Sixth-place finisher Alan Keck, the mayor of Somerset in bright red Pulaski County, has held strong in his support of Cameron. He said that Cameron stands at a pivotal moment in history, with the potential to finish off Democratic power in the state and steer a ship that’s sailing in choppy waters.

“I think the party is growing to a place in Kentucky to where it’s unstoppable. Andy, to me, is the last viable Democrat for the next 30 years. And Kentucky is going to be ruby red, it’s just a question of whether or not it’s going to be functional,” Keck said.

Cameron’s most politically important endorsement has been that of former president Donald Trump. Though his campaign fully embraced Trump’s backing during the primary, the messaging around him has fallen off. Former Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson said that’s likely because Trump, with his recent indictments, is a political unknown in a general election governor’s race despite winning by 26 percentage points on 2020.

“The wildcard is and all this is the Donald Trump factor. Especially in Eastern Kentucky, Trump is still popular. Somehow they need to play the ‘Trump card,’ if you will. But that one’s tricky because if you play the Trump card, can you play it one area but not the other? The Trump card probably hurts you with the suburban voters,” Grayson said.

Election pitch

On paper, a fair bit of math is on Cameron’s side in his general contest election against Beshear. Kentucky hasn’t elected any Democrats for U.S. Senator or president since the 1990s, the state legislature is now dominated 80-20 by Republicans, and even the GOP’s loss last gubernatorial cycle offers some hope. Matt Bevin, who was months before the election polled as the least popular governor in the United States, only lost Kentucky by about 5,000 votes, or 0.4 percentage points.

But Beshear’s governorship has offered him ample opportunities to brand himself and to message to voters – whether in response to COVID-19, floods or tornadoes or while announcing historic economic development deals. He’s become the most popular Democratic governor in the nation, defying political gravity in such a red state, in part because of those appearances.

And a poll from GOP-aligned Public Opinion Strategies bears out what some say is his greatest strength relative to Cameron: crossover appeal. In June, an Republican-aligned pollster found that 15% of Republicans said they would vote for Beshear while only 5% of Democrats said they would back Cameron.

Persuadable voters seem to be the main problem for Cameron thus far, per University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stephen Voss.

“Cameron’s problem is that a lot of people who normally vote Republican are reasonably happy with Beshear and don’t dread four more years of it. They’re not conservative enough to jump his way because of a couple of issues like abortion or ‘wokeness’ in schools. They’re not partisan enough to jump his way because he’s got an ‘R’ by his name,” Voss said.

The McConnell effect

During the late primary stretch, Cameron made headlines at a Northern Kentucky event – the region is a hotbed of a usually anti-McConnell strain of ‘Liberty’ Republicanism – stating in response to a question about his McConnell ties that his only allegiance was to the constitution. The attitude helped land the endorsement of Chris Wiest, an attorney in Northern Kentucky best known for leading lawsuits at the state and federal level against COVID-19 restrictions.

Wiest claimed in a splashy endorsement post to Facebook that Cameron defied McConnell in joining COVID-related lawsuits and running for governor.

Some observers have characterized Cameron’s selective embrace of Trump and distancing from McConnell, one of the nation’s least popular senators despite his electoral successes, while enjoying the benefits of his massive statewide network as savvy political maneuvering.

But it’s not enough for Andrew Cooperrider, a semi-celebrity in GOP ‘Liberty’ circles and recent second-place finisher for state treasurer. Cooperrider had the backing of Massie in his 2022 primary run for a Lexington-based state Senate district.

Cooperrider said that Cameron’s decision to bring on Terry Carmack, McConnell’s former chief of staff, on loan from the senator to the campaign as well as the involvement of McConnell ally Scott Jennings has left him unsure if he’ll even vote for Cameron.

“I think Cameron bringing on Carmack was a huge mistake… I think that if Cameron loses, that specific decision will be the number one reason why. Because all during the primary, he tried to distance themselves from McConnell and now he brings in McConnell’s chief of staff in a key campaign role,” Cooperrider said.

Wiest – a closely-followed figure in the ‘Liberty’ movement, a strong Massie ally and a backer of insurgent GOP candidates in the region – said the Carmack decision “may be one of those unforced error moments,” as it turned off a small but energized portion of the Republican base. He’s actively supporting Cameron and said that he’s trying to bring the group upset by the decision back into the fold.

“These are principled people. The thing that worries me is that this is 3,000 or 4,000 folks that are plugged in – that’s probably what I think that might swing – and, geez, if this is a nail biter like 2019, that might make the difference,” Wiest said.

McConnell himself is not bashful about his admiration for Cameron as a politician and as a man. The two met when Cameron was 18 years old, a freshman walk-on and McConnell Scholar at U of L interning at the leader’s office. To a crowd of Republicans before Fancy Farm, the state’s marquee political event, McConnell waxed confident about Cameron.

The speech urged the hundreds gathered there in Graves County to “finish the job” and cement GOP control in the state by electing Cameron.

“I’ve watched him over the years and now you have. You’ve seen his leadership skills and his ability to rally people together. We are dominant but we haven’t completed job… We owe it to the next generation of Kentuckians to finish the job this November,” McConnell said.

In doing so, voters may just anoint a new de facto party boss to replace McConnell.