Campaign cash still matters, but it isn't everything
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WASHINGTON — If it’s Wednesday ... Senators serving on the Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees get a classified briefing on Afghanistan, per NBC’s Frank Thorp. ... Senate Democrats no longer have a functioning majority following Sen. Ben Ray Luján’s stroke. ... President Biden reignites the Cancer Moonshot. ... The RNC is set to debate endorsing the ouster of Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger from the House GOP conference. ... And, yes, it’s now the Washington Commanders.
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But first: The money chase in American politics continues to play an oversized role in how we cover campaigns and separate strong candidates from weaker ones. But is it really that important anymore?
That’s the question we’d like to pose after combing through the latest 2022 federal fundraising reports, as well as sizing up the giant 4th quarter hauls (self-funder Matt Dolan’s $10.8 million, Raphael Warnock’s $9.8 million, Mark Kelly’s $8.9 million and Val Demings’ $7.2 million) and the disappointing ones (Eric Greitens’ $470K, Mo Brooks’ $386K and Malcolm Kenyatta’s $339K).
Remember the $130 million Democrat Jaime Harrison raised in South Carolina’s 2020 Senate race? He lost the general election by more than 10 percentage points.
Or Beto O’Rourke’s $79 million in 2018, when he lost in Texas (though by a smaller margin than any statewide Texas Democrat in decades)?
(By the way, O’Rourke and Harrison were the top Senate fundraisers in the ’18 and ’20 cycles — when you exclude the self-funders and those Georgia runoffs.)
Even in presidential primaries, as Walter Shapiro reminds us, Michael Bloomberg raised and spent $1.1 billion, while eventual winner Joe Biden trailed both Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg in the 4th quarter before the Iowa and New Hampshire contests.
Don’t get us wrong: Money matters in politics. It just matters less when almost everyone else has it. (Case in point: While Harrison raked in $130 million in 2020, GOP opponent Lindsey Graham brought in nearly $105 million.)
And it also matters less when outside groups like the Club for Growth can spend to help candidates like Mo Brooks in Alabama.
Data Download: The number of the day is … $57.3 million
That’s how much combined cash the four Democratic senators in competitive races (Arizona’s Mark Kelly, Georgia’s Raphael Warnock, Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto and New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan) had on hand as of Dec. 31, according to fundraising reports filed Monday. Their GOP challengers ended the fourth fundraising quarter with a combined $19.9 million on hand.
The four Democrats raised a combined $25.4 million, with the average incumbent raising $6.3 million. Their GOP challengers raised a combined $15.3 million, with an average haul of $1.3 million. Former football player Herschel Walker had the largest haul of those challengers, raising nearly $5.4 million in his race against Warnock.
The fundraising picture was more mixed in open Senate battlegrounds in Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina, due in part to self-funders. On average, Democratic candidates in those races raised $1.5 million while GOP candidates raised $1.9 million.
Other numbers you need to know today:
3: That’s how many GOP senators who were outraised by opponents in the fourth fundraising quarter, which included Florida’s Marco Rubio, Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson and Utah’s Mike Lee.
13: The number of Senate candidates who put $500,000 or more of their own money into their campaigns last quarter, per an NBC News analysis.
$51 million: That’s how much more money House Republicans who objected to Electoral College votes raised in 2021, compared to 2019, Roll Call reports.
16: The number of days congressional leaders have to reach a funding deal and avert a government shutdown.
Tweet of the day
Sources tell me former Alabama senator, Democrat, Doug Jones, will lead the still to be named Sherpa group that will assist the Supreme Court nominee once the president makes his choice. A key role to guide confirmation.
— Kelly O'Donnell (@KellyO) February 1, 2022
Midterm roundup
Despite some evidence that Trump’s grip on the GOP might be loosening, he still holds considerable sway over the party. This week the RNC will debate a resolution that supports removing two prominent Trump critics, Reps. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, from the GOP conference, NBC’s Peter Nicholas and Allan Smith and Alan Smith report.
Yesterday Trump endorsed another challenger taking on a House Republican who voted to impeach him after Jan. 6, backing state Rep. Russell Fry against South Carolina GOP Rep. Tom Rice.
The primary race against Ohio GOP Gov. Mike DeWine got even more crowded Tuesday with former state Rep. Mike Hood jumping in the race.
Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., endorsed Jessica Cisneros in her campaign to oust Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in Texas’ 28th District. Porter, a prolific fundraiser, could boost Cisneros’ campaign. We noted yesterday that Cuellar out-raised Cisneros in 2021, but Cisneros also has less money than when she first challenged Cuellar in 2020. Her campaign started 2022 with $494,000 on hand, but she had $615,000 on hand at the same point in her 2020 race.
Meanwhile, NARAL, a reproductive rights group that’s backing Cisneros, is mobilizing volunteers on the ground in the south Texas district and virtually next week, with a goal of making thousands of direct appeals to voters ahead of the March 1 primary, according to a press release.
Ad watch: Another GOP anti-Fauci ad
Ohio Senate GOP candidate Mike Gibbons debuted a new ad this week featuring an endorsement from Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. In the ad, Paul calls out Dr. Anthony Fauci, whom he often spars with in hearings about the Biden administration’s Covid response.
“[I’ve been] strong against the mandates of Dr. Fauci, but I need help,” Paul says in the ad. “That's why I'm endorsing Mike Gibbons for Senate.”
The new ad joins a handful this cycle attacking Fauci rather than a political figure or an electoral opponent. Just last week, Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis ran a commercial selling “Fauci flip-flops,” accusing the medical expert of flip-flopping on Covid recommendations.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
The New York Times analyzed the depths of former President Trump’s “drive to retain power.”
Some Trump supporters are eyeing DeSantis as a suitable replacement for Trump in 2024, per AP.
