Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
What’s at stake
Happy Election Day to all who celebrate!
Voters are headed to the polls while candidates are casting their own ballots and getting ready for their own election night parties. The team at The Hill has you covered on what you need to know going into what is expected to be a highly consequential midterm election night.
The Hill’s Al Weaver detailed the various paths Republicans have to a majority in the Senate in states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Arizona.
And The Hill’s Caroline Vakil has you covered on where polls stand in these key Senate races.
Meanwhile, in the race for the House majority, The Hill’s Emily Brooks and Caroline Vakil are pointing out the seven important races to watch for clues on House results. Speaking of House races, the final Cook Political Report analysis puts the House “easily” in the GOP’s reach.
If you’re wondering when it’s time to start watching out for early returns, The Hill has a complete list of when the polls close in your state here.
But don’t expect all of the results to be in by tonight or even tomorrow. The Hill’s Brad Dress explains why results could end up taking a while.
Here’s what the experts are predicting will happen
From Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist and former aid to Sen. Kirsten Gilibrand: “I think Shapiro lifts Fetterman to a slim victory and Cortez Masto pulls it off, but barely. Georgia, I think, goes to a runoff.”
From Matt Gorman, a Republican strategist and former NRCC communications director: “I’m watching CT-05 very closely. George Logan. I think he can knock off Jahana Hayes. Another thing I’m watching tonight is the LA Mayor’s race. Caruso vs Karen Bass. The margin in NC will tell me a lot. 730 polls close.”
From Miles Coleman, associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball: I guess this is sort of a prediction, but I’m interested to see how much my idea of Virginia as an early House bellwether holds up.
Rs beat Luria = bare minimum type of seat they’d need for a majority
Rs beat Spanberger = they likely have a gain of 25 or more seats
Rs beat Wexton = Rs have their biggest majority since WW2
Something I’m watching is the ticket-splitting in the Philadelphia collar counties. In 2016, Pat Toomey fared much better than Trump there, and it was key to his reelection. The collar counties will probably go heavily for Shapiro, but Fetterman may not be as great a fit for the area — maybe that gives Oz a win?”
From Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist and alum of Sen. Bernie Sanders and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaigns: “I’m tired of the cynicism. Regardless of the election results, and there are pathways for us to win, it’s time for the Democratic Party to localize its strategies for greater success.
What does that look like? That means hire local year round and empower state consultants instead of national consultants and scrap the electoral organizing model that Obama Campaigns popularized.That means filtering national themes into local issues and end the era of anti-Trump focused campaigning for addressing local solutions through federal support. That means stop running away from conservative outlets and their commentary on the economy to score online support with fringe members of the party – these outlets have a pulse on the rural electorate, many who are Black and Brown voters. Oh, and the party needs more television ads that instill hope and progress and concrete solutions than nasty rhetoric about their opponents. It won’t work right away but it’s one way to offset the online vitriol that informs many of the strategies we deploy as a party.”
From a national Republican strategist: “In Pennsylavnia at least, there will be a good story in that Josh Shapiro will win most likely and that will be a good thing for them because he’ll be along with Wes Moore in Maryland and others, kind of a future star in the party. Otherwise, it’s going to be a pretty grim night for Democrats in Pennsylvania.”
You can read more pundit predictions and analysis here.
TRUMP TEASES 2024 ANNOUNCEMENT
We’re not even through the midterms and the speculation around 2024 has reached a fever pitch, mostly thanks to former President Trump.
Trump had the political world on high alert on Monday evening after multiple outlets indicated that the former president was considering announcing the night before Election Day. Instead, Trump said that he plans to make a “big announcement” on Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago.
“We want nothing to distract from the importance of tomorrow,” Trump said.
The announcement will essentially kick off the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
There have been numerous big GOP names floated for the intraparty contest, but the dominate potential heavyweights are Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis is facing reelection in Florida on Tuesday, but is widely expected to win.
The likely win will allow him to continue to focus on building his national profile ahead of a possible run. However, the dynamic has pitted the two Republican giants against each other, with Trump branding the state’s governor as “Ron Desanctimonious” at a rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend. The Hill’s Brett Samuels dives into the simmering tensions between Trump and DeSantis in his latest piece.
For today though, it appears that Trump has put intraparty politics aside, telling reporters on Tuesday that he voted for DeSantis.
OP-EDS FROM THE HILL
Election Day is tomorrow: Here’s how things could shake out, by political adviser Douglas E. Schoen
Five ways the conventional wisdom about the midterms is wrong, by Thomas Gift of the Centre on US Politics (CUSP) at University College London
Think election week is bad in the US? Believe it or not, it could be worse, by Newsnation correspondent Leland Vittert
How Oregon suddenly became a battleground, by political strategist Ray Zaccaro
Joe Biden wastes his prime-time moment, by Liz Peek, former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & Company
That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you tomorrow.