Campaign Report — The last Senate primary of 2022

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election.

Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@thehill.com), and Caroline Vakil (cvakil@thehill.com).

NH GOP picks who will challenge vulnerable Dems

Republicans say they have a chance to oust Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) in November. But whether that holds true may come down to the candidate GOP voters choose tonight to take her on.

A crowded field of candidates is vying for the party’s nomination on Tuesday, but the frontrunner appears to be Don Bolduc, a retired Army general who has accused New Hampshire’s Republican governor of being a “Chinese communist sympathizer” and echoed former President Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen.

Bolduc’s leading position in the primary is stirring concerns among some Republicans that the New Hampshire Senate seat could slip out of reach if voters hand him the nod on Tuesday. In one sign that top GOP officials are hoping to shut him out, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu endorsed state Senate President Chuck Morse for the nomination last week.

“This time there’s a real question, a concern that people like me have, that Gov. Sununu have, that if we nominate Bolduc our chances of winning this seat are greatly diminished,” Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire GOP and a supporter of Morse, told The Hill’s Caroline Vakil on Monday.

A running theme: Bolduc isn’t the only GOP Senate hopeful who has prompted hand-wringing among top Republicans. They’ve expressed similar concerns about the party’s Senate nominees in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.

But with Democrats riding a new wave of enthusiasm over the past couple months, Republicans are eager to keep the New Hampshire Senate race in play. The GOP needs to net just one seat this year to recapture control of the Senate, meaning that neither party can afford to cede any ground.

All that said, here are some other races we’re watching in New Hampshire:

NH-01’s GOP primary: Matt Mowers and Karoline Leavitt are competing for the mantle of Trump acolyte in the nominating contest for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. Trump hasn’t endorsed in the race, but both have racked up support from high-profile Republicans; House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) have endorsed Mowers, while Leavitt is backed by figures including Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.). The winner will go on to face Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), who is among the most vulnerable House Democrats in the country this year.

NH-02’s GOP primary: Keene Mayor George Hansel is facing off against Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns for the Republican nod to challenge Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) in November. Hansel has cast himself as the more electable candidate, touting his pro-choice stance on abortion rights and hammering Kuster on issues like inflation. Burns, meanwhile, is running as a Trump loyalist. While that could help him among the GOP’s ultra-conservative primary voters, it could make for a more challenging general election race for Republicans. Kuster, like Pappas, is incredibly vulnerable this year. The nonpartisan Cook Political report rates both House seats as “toss ups.”

Democrats are missing the Reid Machine

With Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) taking the mantle of most vulnerable Senate Democrat, party leaders acknowledge that the political muscle the late former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) once commanded in Nevada could come in handy right about now.

“There’s no replacement for Harry,” Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said on Monday, The Hill’s Alex Bolton reports. “He was Mr. Nevada, and he knew how to make it work.”

Recent polling shows Cortez Masto hanging on in her race against her Republican opponent, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, by only a slim margin. One survey from the Republican Trafalgar Group found Laxalt leading her by close to 3 percentage points.

Of course, Cortez Masto has proven to be a formidable fundraiser in her own right, and the political machine that Reid helped build over his decades in politics is still largely in place. But as Jon Ralston, the CEO of The Nevada Independent and perhaps the most respected political commentator in the state, told Alex this week: “If you don’t have Harry Reid … you can’t raise as much money, and so you are handicapped to some extent.”

Republicans have increasingly come to see the Nevada Senate seat as perhaps their best pickup opportunity this year, especially amid signs of trouble for their nominees in states like Arizona. And given that Democrats have appeared to pull ahead in Pennsylvania, where Republicans are hoping to hold the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), and just might have a fighting chance in Ohio, Cortez Masto might just be the GOP’s best target.

POLL WATCH

Just eight weeks out from the midterms, Democratic and Republican voters are almost equally enthusiastic about voting in November. A Morning Consult-Politico poll released on Tuesday showed 57 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of Democrats saying they were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms. Previous polling from Morning Consult and Politico indicate that Democrats have been making up serious ground on what was a clear enthusiasm deficit among members of their party compared to Republicans.

A new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey shared exclusively with The Hill also shows that Democrats and Republicans are polling neck-and-neck with each other on a generic congressional ballot. Fifty-one percent of registered voters polled said they would were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate if the election were held today compared to 49 percent who said the Republican.

AD WATCH

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is out with several ads targeting Reps. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Democratic contender Wiley Nickel in North Carolina, considered some of the most competitive seats up for grabs this cycle.

The NRCC has two ads, called “Hey You” and “The Change,” seeking to tie Slotkin to President Biden and painting her as more loyal to the wealthy than working class voters. The committee launched a 30-second ad against Axne called “All an Act” tying the Iowa Democrat to Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) and slamming her for voting for the American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act. The NRCC also has an ad called “Call Wiley” targeting Nickel over his law clients.

The House Democrats’ campaign arm launched a 30-second ad called “Family” is hitting Republican contender Sandy Smith in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District over abuse allegations leveled by her daughter in 2012. Smith has denied the allegations.

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you tomorrow.

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