Campaign Report — A showdown in the Grand Canyon State

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election.    

Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@thehill.com), and Caroline Vakil (cvakil@thehill.com).

Trump, Pence wage proxy war in Arizona

It’s Donald Trump vs. Mike Pence in Arizona.

The former president and his one-time No. 2 are slated to hold dueling events in the state on Friday when they’ll stump for rival candidates in the hotly contested GOP gubernatorial primary. Trump has endorsed former TV anchor Kari Lake in the race, while Pence came out this week in support of Karrin Taylor Robson, marking his latest challenge to his former boss.

It’s hard to see the rivalry between Trump and Pence as anything less than a proxy war for the ultimate fate of the GOP — and the party’s 2024 presidential nomination. Trump has all but said it’s a matter of when, not if, he announces a comeback campaign, while Pence has more aggressively moved toward a run in recent months with a series of public appearances in key early primary and caucus states.

It’s not the first time that Trump and Pence have come out for opposing candidates in the 2022 midterm primaries. Pence notably supported Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) against Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) in the state’s May gubernatorial primary. Kemp scored a resounding victory in that race, delivering a blow to Trump in a state that he already lost once in the 2020 presidential election.

The two are also expected to cross paths once again next week in Washington, D.C., where Pence is scheduled to address the conservative Heritage Foundation on Monday and will deliver a speech at the Young America’s Foundation’s annual National Conservative Student Conference on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, Trump will headline a two-day summit for the America First Policy Institute.

Of course, neither man has announced a presidential bid yet, and there are other formidable potential contenders waiting in the wings as well. But the jockeying — the endorsements, stump speeches and travel schedules — are par for the course for anyone eyeing a White House campaign.

And while Trump remains the overwhelming favorite for the 2024 nomination for now, there are signs that may be changing. The question is who could supplant Trump as the frontrunner.

The GOP’s Georgia problem

Republicans thought they had a clear shot at ousting Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) this year – that is, if their nominee stops getting in the way.

Herschel Walker, the former football star who won the GOP Senate nomination in May, has been beset by a series of unforced errors and stumbles on the campaign trail. He’s admitted to fathering three children he previously failed to disclose publicly despite speaking out against absentee fathers. He’s faced questions about his business record and personal life, and has been panned for rambling, often incoherent, remarks on issues like climate change. Earlier this month, he claimed that America’s “good air” moves over to China, while China’s “bad air” “moves over to our good air space.”

And it’s not as if the early missteps have gone unnoticed by Walker’s campaign. Last week, he called in a team of veteran Republican operatives earlier this month in an effort to revamp his political operation. Among them were Chip Lake, a longtime Georgia strategist, and Gail Gitcho, a veteran GOP operative who served as communications director for Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) 2012 presidential campaign.

Walker’s challenges have been made evident by recent polling that shows him trailing Warnock. One Quinnipiac University poll released last month showed him trailing his Democratic rival by a staggering 10-point margin. (It’s worth noting, of course, that most other polls show a much tighter contest).

Still, many Republicans say that Walker needs to turn things around, especially before Labor Day, when general election campaigns tend to ramp up quickly.

As Chuck Clay, a former Georgia senator and state GOP chair, told Max this week: “He needs help. He needs to be much better prepared because when Labor Day rolls around, he’s going to have to be able to articulate and do it consistently and do it coherently. He’s got himself two or three months. He’s a smart guy. But he needs focus. He needs to get that part of the campaign down. A Heisman Trophy isn’t going to bring him a victory.”

Read more here. 

POLL WATCH 

A new low: A Quinnipiac University poll out Wednesday afternoon showed President Biden’s approval rating dropping to its lowest point yet. Only 31 percent of Americans give the president positive marks for his job performance, while 60 percent say they disapprove. Among registered voters, Biden doesn’t perform much better. Thirty-three percent approve and 59 percent disapprove. See the full results here.

FIRST IN THE HILL: ENDORSEMENT WATCH 

Scoop: Winning for Women PAC, a Republican group dedicated to electing GOP women to public office, is endorsing congressional candidates Michelle Bond in New York’s 1st Congressional District and Barbara Kirkmeyer in Colorado’s 8th District.

“These women are majority makers. Michelle is a born and bred New York businesswoman with significant public and private sector experience, and Barbara has made an impact in the Colorado State Senate since day one,” Winning for Women PAC founder and chair Annie Dickerson first released to The Hill. “We are proud to help them win these competitive seats and take back the House in November.”

Both races will be closely watched ahead of November, with the Cook Political Report rating Colorado’s 8th District as a “toss-up” and New York’s 1st Congressional District as “lean Republican.” Colorado’s 8th Congressional District was created after the 2020 census, while New York’s 1st Congressional District is represented by Rep. Lee Zeldin (R), who is running for governor.

Primary update: Maryland

It’s been two days since Maryland voters went to the polls to choose their nominees in this year’s midterm elections. And while GOP voters sided with Trump in the primary for governor, choosing state Del. Dan Cox over establishment-favorite Katie Schulz, Democrats are still waiting to see who emerges from their gubernatorial primary.

As it stands, nonprofit executive Wes Moore is in the lead with just under 37 percent of the vote, while former Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez is trailing in second place by nearly 10 points. State Comptroller Peter Franchot sits in third at close to 20 percent support.

Of course, these numbers are still liable to change as election officials begin counting mail-in ballots on Thursday. That process could take days or even weeks, meaning that it could still be some time before we have a clear picture of the results.

Still, other key races have already been decided.

• In Maryland’s 4th Congressional District, the state’s only open House seat this year, former county prosecutor Glenn Ivey captured the Democratic nomination over former Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Md.), virtually guaranteeing him a spot in Congress next year.

• Likewise, Republican voters in Maryland’s 6th District chose state Del. Neil Parrott to take on Rep. David Trone (D-Md.), setting up a rematch of the 2020 race that saw Trone handily defeat Parrott.

We’ll keep you updated on the primaries as results come in.

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you next week.

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