Canada decides: Trudeau faces charge he's undermined support for immigration

This report is part of a series analyzing the top issues that will affect voter choices in the 2019 Canadian federal elections.

Canadian immigration policies designed to attract skilled workers and fill gaps in the labor pool have enjoyed bipartisan support for decades, but the fall campaign will test a political consensus that has shown signs of fraying.

The nation’s "points-based" immigration system, which favors skilled labor, has been praised for attracting top tech talent, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development held it up as an example for other countries to emulate. The influx of foreign students and skilled workers it made possible created a historic population boom in 2017-18, with the country registering its largest annual population growth in nearly 30 years.

Border issues, however, are threatening the approbation those policies have earned in the political arena. Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has been eager to welcome refugees and wants to increase the number of immigrants admitted to the country by more than 10 percent from current levels, is trying to renegotiate an immigration agreement with the U.S. amid pressure from elements of Canada's political right.

The flash point is a loophole in the "safe third country" deal with the U.S. that effectively encourages migrants to cross into Canada at unofficial points of entry — a situation that's been exacerbated by U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive efforts to thwart migration from Latin America, making Canada a more attractive option.

As a result, irregular crossings spiked in 2017-18, and migration has become a political wedge issue on the right. The opposition Conservatives have been forced into a delicate balancing act by the agitation of a new right-wing party, the People's Party of Canada, which has challenged the status quo on immigration.

The Conservatives under Leader Andrew Scheer say they support the immigration system and acknowledge its importance to the country's economy, but they have not declared a target for increasing intake levels. Under pressure from the People's Party, they've called for a new safe third country deal with the U.S. to close the loophole, charging that Trudeau's government has lost control of the border.

"We will work to put an end to illegal border-crossings," Scheer said in a speech this year.

The People's Party is small and won't win many seats in the election, but it's led by a household name in Canada: former Foreign Minister Maxime Bernier, who broke away from the Conservative fold after losing a leadership election to Scheer in 2017.

The campaign provides Bernier with a platform to rattle the immigration debate in ways that could help chart a new course for Canadian conservatism and, with it, the politics of immigration in Canada.

The background

Successive Conservative and Liberal governments dating back to the 1950s have introduced myriad policies to make it easier for skilled workers to settle in the country. A watershed occurred in 1967, when the government adopted the points system. Foreign applicants were thereafter judged on the basis of their skills, not on where they came from, or whether they had a job lined up, as is the norm in the U.S.

Today's points test asks about language skills, educational background and work experience. The 2016 census showed Canada’s foreign-born population hit its highest level in almost a century, surpassing 20 percent of the total population — all without generating much controversy.

The Trudeau government made the latest change to the system in early 2017 to lure more tech talent, creating a program to issue an immediate visa, within two weeks, to certain skilled workers. That open-arms approach to skilled talent helped fuel the population boom in 2017-18, which also included the largest international migration increase in Canadian history.

Then, last fall, Trudeau's Liberals announced a plan to boost immigration levels by 2021. The goal is to bring in 350,000 people — nearly 1 percent of the current population — as of that year, an increase of more than 10 percent from the 2018 level of 310,000. Immigrants entering the country for economic reasons would make up roughly half the increase, with refugees and family sponsorships comprising the remainder.

The border

After Trump advanced his travel ban in early 2017, Trudeau responded by tweeting that Canada would welcome those fleeing war, persecution and terrorism. But attention to irregular border crossings from parts of the political right has forced Trudeau to temper some of his rhetoric about open doors.

The safe third country agreement with the U.S. requires asylum seekers to claim asylum in whichever of the two countries they arrive in first — generally the U.S., since most migrants are traveling from Latin America by overland routes. The deal does not apply, however, if an asylum seeker crosses into Canada from the U.S. at an unofficial entry point.

As Trump has cracked down on undocumented immigrants and crossings along the border with Mexico, thousands of migrants have exploited the loophole, slipping into Canada because they see the country as a better bet than the U.S. A surge in foreign-born refugee claimants crossing from America in 2017-18 prompted Ottawa to run a publicity campaign clarifying that Canada can't accept everyone.

Trudeau has also tightened some rules for refugee claimants, in addition to pushing to make changes to the safe third country agreement with the U.S. to toughen rules for migrants who claim asylum in Canada after avoiding regular border checkpoints.

Despite the border issue, Trudeau's Liberals still plan to accept slightly more refugees over the next two years, atop the planned increase in skilled immigrants.

Charge against Trudeau

Scheer, Trudeau's main campaign rival, has pledged to protect the existing immigration system, and argued the prime minister has undermined public faith in it. In particular, the Conservative leader charged that Trudeau's tweet about welcoming refugees sowed confusion about Canadian immigration law.

"In four years, they [Trudeau's Liberals] have not only undone the progress the previous Conservative government made to strengthen our immigration system — they have managed to undermine the long-standing consensus that immigration is indeed a positive thing for this country," Scheer said in his immigration platform.

He wants to emphasize economic immigration and supports renegotiation of the safe third country deal with the U.S. to end illegal border crossings. His immigration platform says that under the Trudeau government, "a record-high number of Canadians believe that immigration should be reduced" — a reference to some polls that have shown hardening attitudes against migration. However, other analysts contend that public opinion on immigration has remained remarkably stable and positive through the years.

Challenge from the right

Bernier's People's Party threatens to siphon crucial votes from Scheer's Conservatives in competitive districts, putting more pressure on Scheer on immigration. Right-leaning voters in competitive districts are most likely to tell pollsters they oppose current immigration policies, and Scheer can't afford to antagonize them.

Bernier’s new party is making a play for Canada's cohort of Donald Trump fans. Bernier, who has tried to channel Trump by saying he wants to “make Canada great again,” has called for slashing immigration levels by more than half. His response to the recent influx of migrants crossing the border from the U.S. has been to talk about building a border fence along part of the Canadian boundary with New York state.

Bernier, in a speech, said Canadians favor lower immigration but that the mainstream parties are too scared to touch what he calls a “taboo.” The coming election will test his proposition.