Canada stuck in NATO penalty box through 2030

OTTAWA — Canada is not about to meet its NATO defense spending commitments anytime soon, a long-awaited major defense policy update revealed on Monday.

In 2023 at NATO’s Vilnius summit, Canada committed alongside its allies to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense, but Ottawa’s most recent projections have its defense spend-to-GDP ratio hit 1.76 percent in 2029-30, at a ballpark of C$57.8 billion.

The news comes as a record number of NATO’s allies will meet the 2 percent target, and follows months of pressure from allies for Canada to end its free-rider status in the alliance.

It comes days ahead of Canada’s budget, details of which have been revealed in a stream of announcements designed to shore up attention on the governing Liberals as they struggle against Conservatives surging in the polls.

Canada’s Defense Minister Bill Blair nonetheless billed the new spending announced Monday as a “very significant and necessary step towards reaching our NATO commitment” because it sets out billions to advance it from 1.38 percent, according to NATO’s July 2023 estimates.

The new defense report was unveiled at Canadian Forces Base Trenton, Ontario, where Justin Trudeau was pressed by reporters about failing to hit the target by 2030.

The prime minister vowed there’s more to come, given that some future spending has yet to be penciled in because the government has yet to land on some key decisions.

“We haven’t yet defined exactly what types of submarines [we will buy] and how they’re going to be deployed, so, we haven’t put in the money that Canada will be spending on submarines in the coming years into this calculation,” he said.

“We know there is more to come over the coming years as Canada continues to step up in a more uncertain, and quite frankly, more dangerous world.”

U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen welcomed the news as “real progress” and said he was encouraged by “assurances” that more spending is in the works.

“The policy appears to articulate a substantial down payment toward Canada’s pledge to meet its NATO commitment to spend at least two percent of its GDP on defense,” he said in a statement.

Canada’s Opposition Conservatives slammed the government for neglecting to address the military’s glaring problems — dwindling personnel, rusting warships and deteriorating fighter jets — despite nearly a decade of flurried spending under other departments.

“Our submarines are barely in the water and our warships are aging faster than expected and the Liberals’ plan to replace them is still years away,” Conservative MP James Bezan said in a statement.

Canada is the only country in the defensive bloc that’s lagging on both the 2-percent figure and another target: spending 20 percent of defense spending on equipment.

That figure, senior defense officials said Monday, will hit the requirement by fiscal 2025-2026, saving Ottawa from at least one major embarrassment.

At the same press conference, Trudeau confirmed Canada is seeking to join the trilateral AUKUS security pact under “Pillar 2.”

The Canadian government’s new policy document is the first to set out the country’s future defense priorities since 2017, before Russia invaded Ukraine. It frames Canada as pledging a “significant” increase in defense spending, including C$73 billion over the next two decades.

The document says Canada’s “most urgent and important task” is asserting its sovereignty in the Arctic, where climate change is melting sea ice and Russia and China are seeking to step up their military presence.

It sets out around C$8.1 billion in new defense spending over five years, the bulk of which will be spent on sustaining existing assets such as naval vessels. Only about C$1.5 billion is set for procurement for new capabilities in that time.

Most of the spending will kick in after the next election, which must be held by fall next year.

Ottawa, which is under tight fiscal pressure post-pandemic, has meanwhile also tasked departments to slash unnecessary spending, raising questions about where politics comes to play in some of the accounting.

The document reveals a lengthy shopping list of sorts — or a plan to have a plan for one, in some cases.

It sets aside C$401 million for creating long-range missile capabilities for the Canadian army, though not necessarily ballistic missiles — details still to be decided.

It signals Canada is exploring “options for renewing and expanding” its submarine fleet, plans to build a satellite ground station in the Arctic, and will buy modern tactical helicopters, both crewed and uncrewed.

Canada’s current Griffon helicopter fleet will reach the end of its lifespan around 2031.

“We need platforms that can go a little bit further in terms of reach that can carry a little bit more and can execute the tasks that we require,” one senior official said in a media briefing.

On the submarines, Canada is in talks with allies so it can match procurement with their program timelines. Trudeau said the government will be considering whether to purchase nuclear submarines.

The defense ministry is also eyeing a new fleet of airborne early warning aircraft, which is not something Canada can do without the aid of its allies, through the U.S. or NORAD.

A senior official said the new system would “allow us to provide for greater surveillance of the approaches to Canada — land, air and maritime — plug some of the gaps that may exist in radar and other infrastructure, and again, allow us to burden-share with our allies.”

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this report misstated the date of NATO’s Vilnius summit.