Cancer patient backlog could take more than a decade to clear

Doctor examines an x-ray - Getty
Doctor examines an x-ray - Getty

Clearing the backlog of patients waiting for cancer treatment could take more than a decade and will come too late for thousands of people, new research suggests.

The analysis of NHS statistics by the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) estimates that around 20,000 cancer diagnoses have been missed during the pandemic.

Waiting lists have reached a record high of 5.5 million, with fears they could reach 13 million, as patients come forward after struggling to access services, or from fear of being a burden on the NHS during the pandemic.

It comes amid growing concern about access to face-to-face appointments with GPs.

The Prime Minister said on Wednesday that patients were entitled to see their doctor in person, raising concerns that without the option, deadly symptoms could be missed.

Before the pandemic, around 80 per cent of consultations took place in a doctor’s surgery - but in July the figure was just 57 per cent.

The new study by the IPPR and CF, a data analytics consultancy, says it could take until 2033 to clear the backlog - and come too late for many of those whose diagnosis was missed or delayed.

Even this timetable would require a five per cent increase in cancer care activity levels above pre-pandemic levels, it says.

However, boosting this to 15 per cent, with a major expansion in diagnostics and staffing, could clear the backlog by next year, the analysis suggests.

Fewer referrals for suspected cancer

It follows calls from MPs for a root-and-branch review of spending, after the Government announced a £36 billion boost for NHS and social care, funded by a rise in National Insurance.

The research shows that in the year following the first lockdown, 369,000 fewer people than expected were referred to a specialist with suspected cancer.

The 15 per cent drop was accompanied by a 13 per cent drop in radiotherapy treatments, and a seven per cent fall in chemotherapy sessions.

Concerns about the spread of Covid-19, and efforts to free hospitals for patients with the virus, resulted in a major reduction in access to diagnostic tests.

The report shows a 37 per cent drop in endoscopies, a 25 per cent drop in MRI scans and a 10 per cent drop in CT scans between March 2020 and February 2021.

Highly curable cancers

The report said: “Behind these statistics are thousands of people for whom it will now be too late to cure their cancer.

“We estimate that the number of cancers diagnosed while they are still highly curable (stage one and two) fell from 44 per cent before to pandemic to 41 per cent last year.”

The study suggests that treating 90 per cent of these people when they are eventually diagnosed could mean the backlog in chemotherapy and radiotherapy could take until 2028 and 2033 respectively to clear.

However, deaths could be prevented if hospitals are able to do more, which can only be achieved with more cash for new equipment and more staff, it said.

Dr Parth Patel, IPPR research fellow and an NHS doctor, said: “The pandemic has severely disrupted cancer services in England, undoing years of progress in improving cancer survival rates.

“Now the health service faces an enormous backlog of care that threatens to disrupt services for well over a decade. We know every delay poses risks to patients’ chances of survival.”

Urgent action needed

Dr Patel said changes were needed to tackle the backlog urgently.

“Clearing the cancer care backlog before the next general election looks unlikely with the way the NHS is currently resourced, staffed and organised.

“The funding announced this month is just about enough to keep the health service afloat, but does not provide the funds needed to bring down pandemic backlogs as quickly as possible or transform service quality.

“The Government has pledged to improve cancer survival in this country, which lags far behind most similar countries.

“That will take investment in diagnostic kit, immediate and long-term plans to expand the workforce and much bolder policy on prevention.”

Baroness Delyth Morgan, chief executive of Breast Cancer Now, said: “These alarming estimates lay bare just how urgently investment in equipment, and crucially in NHS staffing, is needed to avoid a devastating decade of further disruption to cancer diagnosis and treatment.

“Between the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020 and May 2021, around 10,000 fewer women in England were diagnosed and started treatment for breast cancer.

“Finding and treating these women must be an absolute priority.”

An NHS spokesperson said: “While treating more than 450,000 seriously ill patients in hospital with Covid-19 has inevitably had a knock-on effect on other services and some people were reluctant to come forward, the NHS has continued to prioritise cancer care throughout the pandemic and referral and treatment numbers are now back to usual levels.

“Latest data shows that in June and July this year, more than 50,000 patients started treatment for cancer, an increase of one third compared to the same period last year, and our message remains clear – the NHS is here for you and it is so important that if you are experiencing any symptoms of cancer, you come forward and get checked.”