'It can't get any worse': Paul Ryan laments state of GOP under Trump but remains 'bullish' on future

MADISON — Former House Speaker Paul Ryan sees a country on the rocks — divided by cults of personality, "unserious" politics and policy choices driven by "nihilism" — but he's still "bullish" on the future of the United States.

The Janesville Republican, who represented Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District for two decades (and served as Speaker from 2015 to 2019) and ran for vice president with Utah Sen. Mitt Romney in 2012, spoke Tuesday evening at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Ryan is currently a professor of the practice at the University of Notre Dame and a visiting fellow in public policy at the American Enterprise Institute. He launched the nonprofit American Idea Foundation in 2019, which aims to "demonstrate that it is the bottom-up dynamism of individuals and communities that truly makes America a land of opportunity and prosperity."

Here are five takeaways from the event:

If Trump is nominee, 'Republicans lose with this guy'

Former Republican President Donald Trump is a bad presidential candidate for both practical and principled reasons, Ryan said, adding that he thinks there is still a "reasonable chance" the former president won't earn the party's nomination in 2024.

"We lose with this guy," Ryan said, pointing to Republicans' national track record since Trump's 2016 elecion.

There's another reason Trump shouldn't be the GOP nominee, Ryan said: “He's just unfit for office."

"I think leaders should endeavor to be honest, ethical, moral people who try to set standards for themselves and lead by example across the country. Donald Trump doesn’t try to do any of that. He does the opposite, frankly," Ryan said. "So I just don’t think he’s fit for the job."

However, he conceded, people who agree with him on that point likely wouldn't be inclined to support Trump in the first place.

"I think the better argument is the electability argument," he said.

It was a 'big mistake' to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership

The Trans-Pacific Partnership — a trade deal among a dozen Pacific Rim nations negotiated under Democratic President Barack Obama — was denounced by both Democratic former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential election.

Trump withdrew the U.S. from the pact after he was elected president.

Had the Obama administration started work on a trade agenda a year earlier, Ryan said, "we would have gotten it done." The Obama administration "did a pretty good job" working out a deal that would have been "very much" in the interests of the U.S., but once the two presidential candidates denounced it, support within Congress was "destroyed," he said.

"I think it was a big mistake" to abandon the deal, Ryan said, but "it's not too late to rejoin it."

Freedom Caucus makes GOP 'look like fools'

Asked what advice he'd give current GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as he seeks to avoid a government shutdown, Ryan quipped, "I've seen the movie before," adding, "He knows what I think."

The former speaker said he thinks McCarthy reached a "great deal" with Democratic President Joe Biden on the nation's debt ceiling, but the "handful" of Republicans in the far-right House Freedom Caucus "decided to blow it up."

Members of the Freedom Caucus "think they win by losing," Ryan said, but instead make Republicans "look like fools.:

"It’s nihilism, is what it is, and it’s really unfortunate to see," he said.

The first 'fresh face' wins the race

"The party that puts the first fresh face forward wins this election," Ryan said.

In a Biden-Trump matchup, he said, he predicts a Biden win. But if any other Republican contender can win the nomination (but "maybe not that Vivek guy," he quipped), the outcome could change, he said.

If there's a Republican presidential candidate other than Trump who shows significant momentum after the first round of state-level caucuses and primaries, Ryan said, he hopes the others will get "the heck out of the race."

'Get out of your cocoon'

Despite the political turmoil he observes, Ryan said he remains optimistic.

"It can’t get worse," he deadpanned. "So, there’s that."

"I think what happens in our country is, things are so intractable, and then they break, and then they get fixed," he said.

Democracy is being tested, Ryan said, "from within and from without." The external threats are evident, he said, but breaking through the internal polarization is necessary to move forward.

Asked how he would advise young people to facilitate conversations across ideological divides, Ryan said he would first urge them to spend less time engaging with social media that reinforce their existing biases.

"Get out of your cocoon, spend time with people who do not look or think like you, and do not impugn people’s motives," Ryan said, and focus on facts and principles rather than emotion and division.

"You have two ears and one mouth," he said. "Use them in that proportion."

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Paul Ryan speaks on the GOP under Trump. Takeaways from his UW speech