The case for and against the Heat pursuing a depressed asset such as Porzingis and Horford

Part 3 of a 4-part series.

The Heat’s primary paths to improve this offseason are using cap space to sign a free agent such as Kyle Lowry — which we discussed here — or operate as an over-the-cap team to keep its own free agents and acquire Lowry or another free agent in a sign-and-trade, as we discuss here.

But there’s another avenue available that comes with high risk: acquiring a diminished or depressed asset, a player who at one time was very good but has seen his value drop because of injuries, declining production, age or the circumstances with his team.

And there are several pedigreed power rotation players that fall into that category, headlined by Dallas’ Kristaps Porzingis and Oklahoma City’s Al Horford and Cleveland’s Kevin Love (both of those two are five-time All Stars).

Others who potentially could be acquired without giving up a treasure trove of assets include rebuilding Houston’s John Wall (due $44.3 million and $47.4 million the next two seasons) and Eric Gordon, who’s not a depressed asset per se but is due a lot of money ($18 million, $19 million and $21 million the next three seasons).

Porzingis, Horford and Love are the quintessential depressed assets, accomplished players that — if dealt — will command far less than where their value stood a few years ago.

Now let’s be clear: While Horford and Love are very much available, it’s unclear if Dallas will keep Porzingis and try to make it work with him or whether they will attempt to move on in order to clear 2022 cap space and change the look of their team.

Keep in mind that if Heat trades for Porzingis or Horford or Love — with Love especially unlikely — it almost assuredly would involve exercising the $19.4 million team option on Goran Dragic and/or the $15 million team option on Andre Iguodala and dealing them to Dallas, OKC or Cleveland. The Heat must make decisions on the Dragic and Iguodala options by Aug. 1.

Examining those three players and whether the Heat makes sense as an option:

PORZINGIS

The 7-3 Porzingis was named an All Star in 2018 — and is only 25 — but can’t seem to stay healthy.

He sustained a torn ACL with the Knicks in February 2018, missed all of the 2018-19 season to heal (he was traded to Dallas during the season), was sidelined for part of the 2020 playoffs with a lateral meniscus tear and skipped 29 games this season due to assorted injuries, mostly related to the the surgically repaired right knee.

He still produced good numbers in 43 games this past season: 20.1 points per game, 8.9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks while shooting 37.6 percent on threes (96 for 258).

The problem is the durability and the contract; he’s due $31.7 million, $33.8 million and $36 million the next three seasons.

ESPN writer Tim MacMahon offered interesting perspective on Porzingis in this piece, following Dallas’ seven-game opening round loss to the Clippers. An excerpt from that ESPN.com story:

“Those [knee] injuries — and the resulting diminished mobility — made him a defensive liability, and they are among the reasons it would be difficult for Dallas to get value for Porzingis in a trade. He is owed $101.5 million over the next three seasons, a contract that executives and scouts around the league view as an albatross.

“But Porzingis has been frustrated, often feeling more like an afterthought than a co-star as [Luka] Doncic dominates the ball and the spotlight, sources told ESPN.… A lack of on-court interaction between Doncic and Porzingis, who rarely high-five or communicate directly to each other, has become apparent.”

And MacMahon noted that “during the Clippers series, Porzingis spent the series as a bystander on most offensive possessions, standing in the corner or on the wing to space the floor, getting fewer than half as many touches per game than he did in the regular season. With the stakes high, Porzingis had been turned into a max-contract role player. After Game 7, Porzingis called it a ‘mental battle’ to play a role that wasn’t comfortable for him.”

Whether the Mavs would deal him in a simple salary dump — expecting little in return except contracts that expire in a year — remains to be seen. The other question is who should get a draft pick in such a deal: Dallas or the team taking on his contract.

If the return is minimal, a case could be made for pursuing him, considering the Heat had interest in him in 2018 before the Knicks dealt him to Dallas. He’s clearly an upgrade over anyone the Heat has to play alongside Adebayo. But an equally strong case could be made to stay away because of the durability issues and the big money remaining on his contract.

HORFORD

Horford signed a four-year, $97 million deal with Philadelphia in July 2019 but wasn’t the ideal fit alongside Joel Embiid and was dealt to Oklahoma City last December.

On March 27, the Thunder announced that Horford would sit out the remainder of the season so the rebuilding Thunder could give more playing time to younger players. The Thunder plans to try to trade him this offseason.

Horford would still be a clear upgrade for the Heat at power forward; he averaged 14.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and shot 38.8 percent (56 for 162) on three-pointers in 28 games for the Thunder, all starts.

But three big negatives: 1) He’s owed $27 million and $26.5 million the next two seasons, well above his current value. 2) Like with Porzingis and Love, the contract would make it more difficult for the Heat to pursue a star in 2022 free agency, with Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving, James Harden and Kevin Durant among those potentially available. 3) He turned 35 earlier this month, so a diminishment in skill is inevitable.

But what if OKC offered to return the Heat’s lottery-protected 2023 first-round pick to Miami (along with Horford and a cap filler) in exchange for a Heat 2028 first-rounder and contracts with a year remaining (Dragic, Iguodala)?

That would give Miami something to think about, because re-acquiring its own 2023 first round pick would allow Miami to include two first-round picks in a trade for a star.

LOVE

Though Love, 32, is a five-time All Star, he’s the least appealing of the three because he cannot stay healthy. Over the past five seasons, he has missed 22, 23, 60, 9 and 47 games.

And he’s owed $31.3 million and $28.9 million the next two seasons.

So if he cannot stay healthy, it hardly matters that he averaged 17.6 points and 9.8 rebounds in 56 games and 31.8 minutes per game in 2019-20, or that he averaged 12.2 points and 7.4 rebounds (while shooting 36.5 percent on threes) in 24.9 minutes per game and 25 games (all starts) last season.

A Heat deal for Love would very much surprise us, and a trade for Horford or Porzingis — while certainly not out of the question — come with risks.

But here’s an idea that makes you think: If Horford could be acquired for the Dragic contract, KZ Okpala and Omer Yurtseven (with the aforementioned 2023/2028 pick swap) — and if Lowry can be acquired in a sign-and-trade for the Iguodala contract and Achiuwa — the Heat hypothetically could field a starting group of Bam Adebayo, Horford, Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson and Lowry, with Tyler Herro and Dwayne Dedmon off the bench. There’s a combined 17 All-Star appearances in that group.

But because a sign-and-trade for Lowry would be involved, the Heat would be hard-capped at $144 million in that scenario (including Ryan Anderson’s $5.2 million waive-and-stretch hit), and that group would cost in the $146 million range ($2 million over the hard cap) if Robinson gets $15 million and Lowry $25 million and the Heat fills out its roster with minimum contracts.

But the numbers would work, if say, Robinson gets $14 million and Lowry takes $21 million. Miami couldn’t use its $9.5 million mid-level exception in this scenario because these salaries would put the Heat very close to the hard cap. And there would not be space for Victor Oladipo unless he took a minimum deal.

Would those six players — Adebayo, Horford, Butler, Lowry, Robinson, Herro and six minimum contracts (perhaps Dedmon and Trevor Ariza among them) get you closer to the top of the East? It’s interesting food for thought.

NON-DEPRESSED ASSETS

Meanwhile, there are other assets that aren’t “depressed” but still could be made available.

Perhaps Portland will make available guard CJ McCollum, who’s due $30.9 million, $33.3 million and $35.8 million the next three seasons; he averaged 23.1 points and shot 40.2 percent on threes this past season.

Boston is expected to look to move somewhat-declining point guard Kemba Walker, due $36 million and $37.7 million the next two seasons. The Lakers might deal wing Kyle Kuzma, due $13 million each of the next three seasons.

Perhaps Sacramento considers moving power forward Marvin Bagley (due $11.3 million and $14.8 million the next two seasons) or guard Buddy Hield, whose contract (due $23 million, $21 million and $19.1 million) makes him less appealing.

At the trade deadline, the Kings were disinclined to deal Harrison Barnes, who’s due $20.3 million and $18.4 million over the final two years of his deal. Barnes would be the best fit for the Heat among those three Kings players.

Perhaps Indiana would consider moving center Myles Turner, who’s due $18 million the next two seasons. He averaged 12.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.4 blocks but shot only 33.5 percent on threes.

Perhaps Phoenix could deal Dario Saric, who has been in and out of the playoff rotation; he’s a career 35.7 percent three-point shooter and the type of stretch big that the Heat likes playing with Adebayo. He’s due $8.5 million and $9.3 million the next two seasons.

Perhaps Orlando — depending on the depths they are willing to go on this rebuild — would consider moving ace bench scorer Terence Ross, who’s due $12.5 million and $11.5 million.

It’s difficult to imagine Chicago trading Zach LaVine after a breakout season.

Coming Monday: Part 4 of this 4-part series on how the Heat can improve its roster.

Here’s part 1 on the Heat’s options if Miami operates as a room team.

Here’s part 2 on the Heat’s options if Miami operates as an over-the-cap team.

Here’s my Friday live blog from Miami Dolphins practice with lots of news.

Here’s my Friday piece on the dozen players taking recruiting visits to UM this weekend.