The case for extending Luis Severino before he hits free agency next winter

The Yankees can’t let the Red Sox have all the fun.

While the offseason in Boston has been mostly disastrous, head honcho Chaim Bloom saved some face on Wednesday when news broke that the Red Sox and electric third baseman Rafael Devers had agreed to an 11-year, $331 contract extension.

This move (whenever it actually gets finalized) almost single handedly saves the Red Sox from falling into misery. Devers playing the 2023 season as a lame duck — much like Xander Bogaerts did in 2022 — would have been a terrible business decision by the franchise and likely opened the door for Devers to cash in somewhere else next offseason, when he’ll be just 27 years old.

The Yankees handed out their big in-house extension last month, dropping $360 million at Aaron Judge’s feet and sweetening the deal by naming him captain, but they have one more member of the current roster that could use a few more years in pinstripes as well.

Luis Severino, himself just 28 years old, is heading into his final season under contract. The Yankees’ front office showed confidence in the right-handed pitcher by picking up his $15 club option for 2022, a move that general manager Brian Cashman called a no-brainer. The thinking is probably that they want Severino to prove his worth — and, importantly in this case, his durability — during the upcoming season. But if he pitches well enough, there’s no reason for the Yankees to hesitate with an extension offer.

The longer it plays out, especially if Severino shoves like he did at the end of 2022, the more Severino will start to realize how much money will be waiting for him in free agency. While the Yankees may have been wise to withhold the full wheelbarrow of cash until they see Severino throw 150 innings again, players typically don’t like entering a season knowing that there’s no guaranteed money for them when it’s over. If he blows out his arm, that’s one thing, but if Severino remains healthy and turns in a great season, he stands to make much more than $15 million a year. Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon each signed deals this winter that will pay them at least $17 million for the next four years, and Severino at his best is significantly better than either of those pitchers.

As things stand right now, Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell will all be unrestricted free agents at the conclusion of the 2023 campaign. Max Scherzer and Marcus Stroman can join them as well if they decline their player options. Like with this spending period, when Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon all secured at least $27 million in annual salary, the top of next year’s market has a chance to explode. That has trickle down effects to the rest of the pitchers (see: serviceable backend starters Jordan Lyles and Drew Smyly receiving sizable multi-year deals), and if the Yankees don’t work proactively, Severino’s price will go up with each quality start.

Something in the neighborhood of four years and somewhere between $80 and $85 million seems perfectly reasonable for both the Yankees and Severino, who is their longest tenured player. The 2015 team that Severino debuted for still had A-Rod, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and a whole lot of Jacoby Ellsbury. Severino has literally given his body to the franchise since then — his Tommy John surgery and multiple other arm injuries are the main things working against his case for an extension, but he’s battled back admirably each time — and deserves the same treatment Judge got, so long as his elbow and shoulder cooperate.

As a starting pitcher who only works every five days, Severino is inherently less impactful than Judge or Devers, who play every single day. But he’s a seriously valuable piece of this Yankee roster, which might only be a few players away from unseating the Astros. Starting pitching depth is one of the best assets in the entire game, and with Severino slated to be their fourth starter, the Yankees absolutely have that. Keeping it could be the difference between more losses in the American League Championship Series and actually going all the way, even more so if the top of the farm system delivers on its promising reputation.

What cruel irony it would be for Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez to one day arrive in the Bronx and power the Yankees’ lineup only for the team to be one pitcher away from a World Series. Other pitchers will be out there as well, of course, but the Yankees already have a pretty dang good one, somebody who originally signed with them over 12 years ago and has a 3.18 ERA in the three years of his career where he’s topped 100 innings.

A gratifying, healthy beginning to 2023 where he pitches like a big-money guy should warrant a lucrative contract extension for Severino, lest the Yankees wait too long and have another team swoop in next December with an even heftier offer.

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