Hurricane Lee drops to Category 4 storm on path toward US. See expected Florida impact

Hurricane Lee has lost a little strength but remains a very strong Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week, with fluctuations in intensity likely over the next few days. Earlier predictions of winds of 180 mph within the next 12 hours have dropped, according to the National Hurricane Center.

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The current forecast calls for Hurricane Lee to maintain 155-mph winds through the next 12 hours before its strength drops slightly.

A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph. There is no Category 6 hurricane.

While it's too soon to know what impact Lee will have on Florida or the U.S., the National Hurricane Center said dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the United States' East Coast beginning Sunday.

• Highlights from 11 a.m. advisory

  • Maximum sustained winds have dropped to 155 mph, making it a strong Category 4 storm.

  • Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday.

  • Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week.

  • It is too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.

'Incredible': Hurricane Lee's winds doubled in a day, but it's now back to Category 4

On Thursday, Hurricane Lee had intensified by 80 mph over 24 hours. Only six Atlantic hurricanes since records have been kept have intensified by 80-plus hours within that time period: Wilma in 2005; Felix in 2007; Ike in 2008; Matthew in 2016; Maria in 2017 and Eta in 2020.

Farther east in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Margot, which is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend.

What impact will Hurricane Lee have on Florida?

"Most models turn Lee northward, but that doesn’t happen 'til mid-next week," tweeted the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.

"This means at least small changes to the ultimate track are likely. So the U.S. east coast should prep for potential impacts. Never hurts to be ready!"

"Building seas and long period swells from Major Hurricane Lee over the west Atlantic are forecast to lead to deteriorating boating conditions over the coastal waters, and increase the threat of life-threatening rip currents and beach erosion through all of next week," said the National Weather Service, Melbourne.

AccuWeather forecasters said impacts from Lee could be felt from the Caribbean to the United States and as far north as Atlantic Canada.

"At the very least, a significant risk of dangerous rip currents is expected along the East Coast," said AccuWeather.

"Lee poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7 days, but should continue to be monitored," advised the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

Monster in the making: Hurricane season forecast: Lee breaks record before it's even born

Forecast path: Where will Hurricane Lee go?

AccuWeather forecasters said there are still several track scenarios from the middle of next week through next weekend. The timing of when Lee takes a turn to the north will be the main factor in determining the exact impacts along the East Coast.

Many of the models indicate the hurricane is likely to head northward in the Atlantic, but not all. Any bump westward in the track could be disastrous for the Atlantic Coast anywhere from Florida to Nova Scotia, AccuWeather said.

As Lee approaches, the jet stream could determine the extent of the direct impacts in the United States. Based on the projected track, direct impacts such as heavy rain and high winds from Lee are not expected from Florida to the Carolinas. However, it could be a different story farther to the north, especially across New England, forecasters said.

If the jet stream swings eastward, it should help to protect all of the East Coast from feeling direct rain and high winds from Lee. In this scenario, Bermuda may endure more direct impacts instead.

However, if the jet stream is stronger, dips southward and stalls as Hurricane Lee approaches, the powerful storm could be pulled in close to the U.S. by steering winds during the middle and latter part of next week.

"Right now, the area in the United States that really needs to pay attention includes locations from the upper part of the mid-Atlantic coast to New England," AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Weather models show a deep trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. next week, and that dip in the jet stream "should turn Lee more to the north around this time next week," said Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at Florida-based Weather Tiger.

"Unless something very weird happens, that northward movement should occur well east of Florida, and Lee does not look like a threat to the state," Truchelut said.

What does Jim Cantore have to say about Hurricane Lee?

"Is eastern North America in play? Absolutely, but its very likely we won't have some confidence for some tighter goal posts until next week. Regardless #Lee will be a dangerous and powerful hurricane as it decides its fate on North America," The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore tweeted.

Looking at models of Hurricane Lee into next week, Cantore tweeted:

"Some solutions into late next week (shown below) are too close to ignore. Some don't touch land. This is all common with something in the 7-10 day away range. Plus the simple fact that track errors go up rapidly after 5 days which would be this case for Lee, Any POTENTIAL USA direct impacts other than waves would likely be late next week at the earliest."

"Even though almost all of the ensemble blend members don't touch the USA, its all about the trends at this point versus actual individual operational model output," Cantore said.

"Therefore, lets watch how the some of these western players shake out. The farther west we go the harder it is to miss eastern North America. There is no reason to believe #Lee will weaken considerably over the next week."

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 11 a.m.:

Hurricane Lee drops to Category 4 storm

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

• Location: 565 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands

• Maximum sustained winds: 155 mph

• Movement: west-northwest at 13 mph

• Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee

At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Lee was located 565 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Exact location: near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 54.5 West.

Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through early next week with a significant decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph, with higher gusts. Lee is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, however Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb.

Hurricane Lee maximum sustained winds drop to 155 mph

Prediction and timing of winds:

• 12 hours: 155 mph

• 24 hours: 150 mph

• 36 hours: 145 mph

• 48 hours: 145 mph

• 60 hours: 145 mph

• 72 hours: 155 mph

• 96 hours: 140 mph

• 120 hours: 130 mph

A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph.

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Lee has been on a steady west-northwest path during the past couple of days as it has been steered by the flow on the south side of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.

A continued west-northwest motion is expected, but at a progressively slower pace during the forecast period as the ridge to the north of the system weakens. The models are in fairly good agreement, andlittle change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.

Tropical Storm Margot

• Location: 580 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands

• Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph

• Direction: west-northwest at 17 mph

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located 580 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands or near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 32.5 West.

Margot is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, with a turn towards a more northwestward motion early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane later this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.

Who is likely to be impacted?

Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents associated with Hurricane Lee are likely in the northern Leeward Islands beginning later today. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend.

Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday.

It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from Tropical Storm Margot.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Tropical forecast over the next seven days

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

Noaa

Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051

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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Lee forecast path, spaghetti models. Impact on US. Tracker