‘A cause for concern,’ state epidemiologist says as COVID-19 metrics go up

Ben Sessoms
·5 min read

North Carolina has seen an increase in new cases, hospitalizations and the percentage of tests coming back positive in the first two weeks in April after weeks-long declines since late January.

“It’s definitely a cause for concern,” said state epidemiologist Dr. Zack Moore in an interview with The N&O. “There’s more virus circulating out there in the state.”

Over the last week, the state Department of Health and Human Services has reported an average of 1,996 new cases per day. A week ago that average was under 1,600.

Hospitalizations due to the virus increased to 1,045 on Wednesday and have increased by more than 100 from earlier this month.

Among the tests reported Monday, the latest day with available data, 7.6% returned positive. Over the last week of available data, DHHS has reported an average of 6.2% of tests as positive per day.

State health officials have said that the rate needs to 5% or lower to control the spread of the virus. It hasn’t been below 5% since March 18.

“No one of our measures tells the whole story by itself, but when you look at it in context of what we’re seeing with our case rates and what we’re seeing elsewhere in the country,” Moore said, “it definitely is a cause for concern.”

A race between variants and vaccines

Over 2.6 million in North Carolina are fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, DHHS reported Wednesday.

That’s nearly a quarter of the whole population and over 30% of people age 18 and up.

But with the emergence of variants that spread COVID-19 more easily, Moore said it’s important to get more people protected via vaccine from the virus.

“It’s sort of a race between the emergence of these variants that can spread more rapidly and the ability to get vaccination out and get more people protected,” Moore said.

Moore said that current data shows that the vaccines are still protective against the variants.

Moore said he could not give a specific percentage of the population that would have to be vaccinated to obtain herd immunity — when enough people are immune by vaccination to an infectious disease to make its spread from person to person unlikely, as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But he said the number would be high.

He said that solely focusing on herd immunity though, is missing the point.

“Every person who’s vaccinated becomes a dead end for COVID,” Moore said. “If we have 30% of the state that’s vaccinated, that’s 30% of people that become dead ends for this virus. That’s having a big impact on preventing spread.”

As North Carolina has started offering vaccinations to more and more people over the past few months, overall metrics have rapidly decreased since numbers peaked in mid-January during a post-holiday surge.

But as metrics start to tick back up, Moore said it’s still important to continue wearing masks, to social distance and to follow gathering limitations.

“Everybody wants to get back to normal, but at the same time, we still have a lot of virus spread out there,” Moore said.

COVID-19 data of the day

Case and hospitalization data reported by DHHS are preliminary and subject to change upon further investigation. Here are additional statistics reported Wednesday with changes from the previous day:

  • Total cases: 938,784 (+2,359)

  • Deaths: 12,325 (+20)

  • Tests: 11,776,943 (+27,666)

  • People hospitalized: 1,045 (+13)

  • COVID-19 adult ICU patients: 253 (-5)

  • Available ICU beds: 527 (-38)

  • Available inpatient beds: 5,123 (-385)

  • Patients on ventilators: 946 (+171)

Inpatient and ICU beds are not all used by COVID-19 patients, according to DHHS.

Deaths do not all occur on the date they are reported. DHHS updates its numbers as information becomes available. For example, according to the latest DHHS data, the deadliest day of the pandemic was Jan. 15 when 125 people died. The state originally reported that 108 people had died on Jan. 15.

Vaccine doses administered through North Carolina health providers:

  • First doses arrived: 2,870,450

  • First doses administered: 2,804,483 (98%)

  • Second doses arrived: 2,332,765

  • Second doses administered: 2,022,278 (87%)

  • Single-shot doses arrived: 315,300

  • Single-shot doses administered: 197,933 (63%)

Vaccine doses administered in North Carolina through the federal, long-term care program:

  • First doses administered: 650,414

  • Second doses administered: 330,485

  • Single-shot doses administered: 51,789

  • Total doses arrived: 1,472,810

  • Total doses administered: 1,032,688 (70%)

Overall vaccine statistics reported Wednesday:

  • Total doses administered: 6,057,382

  • Number of people fully vaccinated: 2,602,485

  • Percent of population who have received at least one dose: 32.9%

  • Percent of population fully vaccinated: 24.8%

  • Percent of population 18 or older who have received at least one dose: 41.8%

  • Percent of population 18 or older fully vaccinated: 31.7%

  • Percent of population 65 or older who have received at least one dose: 74.3%

  • Percent of population 65 or older fully vaccinated: 69%

Breakdown of those fully vaccinated by race vs. percentage of total population:

  • American Indian or Alaskan Native: 0.7% (1.7%)

  • Asian or Pacific Islander: 3.2% (3.5%)

  • Black or African American: 15.8% (23.1%)

  • White: 71.8% (71.7%)

  • Other: 5.4%

  • Missing or undisclosed: 3.1%

By ethnicity:

  • Hispanic: 4.5% (9.8%)

  • Non-Hispanic: 88.1% (90.2%)