A caution about the Ryan Fitzpatrick/Chan Gailey new Miami Dolphins alliance
You could make a strong case that Ryan Fitzpatrick has more familiarity with new Dolphins offensive coordinator Chan Gailey than any other active NFL quarterback, considering Fitzpatrick spent three seasons with Gailey in Buffalo (where Gailey was head coach) and two with Gailey with the New York Jets (where Gailey was offensive coordinator).
Of Gailey’s last 80 games calling plays for an NFL team, Fitzpatrick started 72 of them.
That experience — coupled with the lack of an offseason program for Tua Tagovailoa to gain on-field experience in Miami’s system — make Fitzpatrick the clear favorite to be the Dolphins’ starting quarterback to open the 2020 season.
But there’s a difference between knowing an offensive coordinator’s system and consistently playing well in that system.
And that’s a distinction that must be drawn with Fitzpatrick and Gailey.
Fact is, Fitzpatrick’s body of work under Gailey is comparable to his body work in the years he didn’t work with Gailey.
In some ways, it’s worse. And that often gets overlooked because Fitzpatrick had one (only one) really good season with Gailey.
Some points to consider:
▪ Fitzpatrick has an 80.9 passer rating in five years with Gailey. That’s worse than his passer rating without him. Overall, Fitzpatrick’s career passer rating is 81.6.
▪ Fitzpatrick was Gailey’s starting quarterback for 11 games one year (the 2016 season with the Jets), 13 games once and 16 games three times. In those five seasons, their teams were 24th, 25th, 10th, 14th and 19th in total offense.
▪ Fitzpatrick has thrown a pass in 13 of his 15 NFL seasons, and in each of those 13 seasons, he threw between 135 and 569 passes.
If you rank those 13 seasons by interceptions thrown, Fitzpatrick’s five seasons with Gailey would rank first through fifth worst in most interceptions thrown, with 23, 17, 16, 15 and 15. That’s the bad news.
The good news: Four of his five seasons with Gailey would rank one through four on his list of TDs thrown in a season: 31, 24, 24 and 23.
In the 13 years in which he has thrown a pass, Fitzpatrick’s five seasons with Gailey would rank third, sixth, eighth, ninth and 12th in passer rating.
In completion percentage, his seasons with Gailey would rank third, sixth, seventh, 10th and 11th.
And then there’s the issue of winning percentage, which is as much a reflection of the team around him as the quarterback.
For what it’s worth, Fitzpatrick was 29-43 in his starts with Gailey (a 40.2 winning percentage). That’s barely ahead of his 39.5 career winning percentage as a starter.
So what should we draw from this?
In a season with no offseason program, it’s helpful that Fitzpatrick is working with a coordinator with whom he has a history. The learning curve will be limited.
But to expect Fitzpatrick to greatly outperform his 2019 Dolphins season alongside offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea isn’t realistic. Keep in mind that his 62 completion percentage and 85.5 passer rating for Miami last season were well above his averages in five years with Gailey.
So here’s the other lesson: When Tagovailoa is ready to start, start him. Don’t be under some wrong impression that Fitzpatrick is suddenly going to become a clearly above-average quarterback now that he’s reunited with Gailey.
He was that (clearly above average) in one of his five seasons with Gailey (a 10-6 season for the Jets in 2015, when he had 31 TD passes and 15 interceptions).
But for the majority of his career with Gailey, Fitzpatrick was a barely average or below-average quarterback. To expect more this season would be setting yourself up for disappointment.
