CBS poll predicts GOP House takeover

The House Chamber is seen during the vote of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act on Friday, June 24, 2022.

With the midterms just over a week away, the latest CBS News Battleground Tracker poll predicts a Republican takeover of the House with a 15-seat gain.

The poll forecasts Republicans will clock in at 228 seats to Democrats’ 207, a 21-seat difference, with a margin of error of 12 seats.

Still, predictions are difficult, as many races remain neck and neck with just over a week until Election Day, and a surge in voter turnout could give Democrats a shot at keeping control.

If November’s election sees a big turnout of young voters and voters of color — comparable to the surge seen in 2018’s midterms — the Battleground Tracker predicts Democrats hold on to the majority by a single seat, with 218 to Republicans’ 217.

If there’s an uptick in turnout among white voters without college degrees, however, Republicans could clinch an even bigger win, winning 238 seats and pushing Democrats to 197.

The Cook Political Report last week amended its outlook for the midterms, predicting Republicans will flip as many as 25 seats rather than the 10 to 20 expected earlier.

Crime and the economy have been polling as the top priorities for voters, beating out issues that Democrats have been emphasizing such as abortion access and protecting democracy.

Still, many Democrats say they are still confident they will hold the House. In an NBC News poll released last week, Democrats held a 1-point lead on a generic congressional ballot.

The CBS News Battleground Tracker’s House seat estimates incorporate voter responses to a survey conducted Oct. 26 to Oct. 28 of 2,119 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.

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