CBSN Denver Daily Sports Line

Michael Spencer previews tonight's Nuggets-Pacers game.

Video Transcript

- Hello, everyone and welcome into your CBSN Denver daily Sports Line for Monday, March 15. We are as always brought to you by BetMGM, the king of sportsbooks. Glad to have you with us. Hope you're thawing out OK if you're in the Denver or Colorado area. And hopefully got your brackets filled out and ready to go for March Madness. We're going to talk a little bit about that in just a second. And of course, more on that throughout the week right here on the CBSN Denver Daily Sports Line.

For today though, let's focus on tonight's Nuggets game against the Pacers at Ball Arena. The Nuggets coming off a disappointing loss to Dallas the other night. And if you know me, if you pay attention to this segment, you know that I love taking the Nuggets off a loss. Denver is 4 and 1/2 point favorites here tonight. The over-under for this game is currently set at 223 and 1/2.

Now, all that being said, I'm a little nervous about this game tonight in terms of the spread. I think the Nuggets will win the game. But I think the spread is probably a little bit too high for me to take. Denver is 8 and 7 against the spread this season when coming off a loss. That's hitting at 53%, not necessarily great. They are 10 and 5 straight up after a loss, just winning, not considering the cover there.

Indiana is playing really good basketball right now. And the Nuggets are without, tonight, Monte Morris, PJ Dozier, and Gary Harris. So I'm worried about the Nuggets bench scoring in this game. We know that the reserves have had trouble for the Denver Nuggets this season. In that game against Dallas on Saturday, the Nuggets' bench accounted for just 16 points. That's not good enough.

So I worry about the ball handling when Jamal Murray is out of the game. Who's going to facilitate the offense when Jamal Murray's out of the game? And so I think I'm going to stay away from this Nugget's game tonight in terms of the line and in terms of the over-under.

However, I do really, really like the Lions Boost that BetMGM has right now for Nikola Jokic and the over-under for his point total tonight. If Joker scores 25-plus points, the Lions Boost is currently set at plus 200. So you put down $1. And for every dollar that you put down, you win two.

Consider this when you're looking at Joker. He averages 27 points per game, right? So right there, that already tells you that there's some sort of an edge here. Now, why is it so low? Why are they doing this? Well, when the last time the Nuggets and Pacers met up, Joker was held to just 20 points. So I think that's probably why this is a little low at just 25. But I think Joker comes out tonight and has a big game because when the Nuggets lose, he tends to respond really well.

I think he plays heavy minutes. And I think he plays really well. So I really like the Lions Boost.

Some other player props that I'm looking at tonight, the MPJ over-under is 16 and 1/2. Look everybody, gives me grief because I love Michael Porter, Jr. because he went to Mizzou for, like, a hot second. And I went to Mizzou. And so everybody knows that I'm Michael Porter, Jr. Stan.

But look at the numbers here. Over the last six games, he's averaging better than 19 points per game. He's only had less than 17 once during that stretch. And he's currently shooting 63% from the field during that stretch. So I think you can find some value there.

Yes, take it with a grain of salt because, yes, I'm a big Michael Porter, Jr. fan. But I do think there's some value there. I also think that his rebound total, which is set at 7 and 1/2, is something that you should definitely take a look at. He's averaging 10 rebounds a game over his last eight games. And only once during that stretch has he had seven boards or fewer. And that was right at seven. So I think you could find some value there.

Remember as you're looking at these player props, you want to put a little less than what you normally would on a line or on an over-under because player props, they can go either way, obviously. And they're are a little more risky, but something to consider tonight when you're looking at that Lions Boost there on Nikola Jokic, 25-plus points for plus 200.

All right, the other thing to that I won't get into too much, but I do want to make you aware of the lines for college basketball are out. CU hoops currently minus 4 and 1/2, 4 and 1/2 point favorites. Wait on this because I think it's going to come down because I think some money is going to come in on Georgetown.

I think this is going to be a really interesting match-up. I think CU gets the win. We're going to talk more about that and more on why I think they might get the win coming up a little bit later in the week.

Speaking of later, later today on CBS 4 for those of you in the Denver area, Tad Boyle going to be our guest on Xfinity Monday Live. That'll happen at 6:30 on CBS 4, CBSDenver.com as well.

That is going to do it for your CBSN Denver Daily Sports Line brought to you by BetMGM, the king of sportsbooks.