The CDC now forecasts 100,000 US coronavirus deaths by June 1

cdavis@insider.com (Charles Davis)
·2 min read
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AP Photo/John Minchillo

  • CDC Director Robert Redfield noted Friday that a dozen different models predict a rising rate of death from COVID-19 in the coming weeks.

  • By June 1, Redfield said, more than 100,000 Americans will likely have died from the coronavirus.

  • On May 4, President Donald Trump said 100,000 Americans, total, would likely die from the virus.

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By the time June 1 comes around, more than 100,000 Americans will likely have died from COVID-19, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A dozen different models are all forecasting an increasing rate of death in the coming weeks, even as some states have already begun reopening their economies.

In a May 4 town hall, US President Donald Trump told Fox News viewers that, total, "we're going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people." At that point, there were 68,000 confirmed deaths from COVID-19; as of May 14, there were more than 80,000.

On Friday, CDC Director Robert Redfield stated that the number will likely exceed the president's latest worst-case scenario (itself a revision up from the "maybe 65,000" Trump predicted in April) by the end of this month.

Based on the analysis of 12 individual forecasts, the CDC now predicts "the number of cumulative reported deaths are likely to exceed 100,000 by June 1st." And the data suggests that, even as some states have begun easing lock downs, the worst is yet to come, with all the models indicating "an increase in deaths in the coming weeks."

As Business Insider reported earlier this month, four states that have already begun opening up are conducting far too little testing to safely do so, according to researchers at Harvard University. Those researchers said the US needed to increase testing 400%, at a minimum, to have any hope of opening up safely — and not exacerbating the spread of the coronavirus.

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